Stock Club

Join over 100,000 investors who get our free weekly Stock Club newsletter every Friday, plus two free reports: ⁠https://joinstockclub.com⁠Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) is a roughly $5 trillion company that almost everyone uses and hardly anyone on Stock Club has pitched, so Mike and Emmet flipped a coin and went head to head. Mike makes the bull case: a toll booth that runs in both directions across about 2 billion devices, switching costs that start in the teenage group chat, around $150 billion in operating profit at 33% margins, a share count down about 30% since 2017, and a bet that AI models will become commodities Apple can simply rent while the hyperscalers burn through cash.Emmet takes the bear side. The biggest company in the world is rarely the best investment, and only one of the ten most valuable US companies of 2006 is still in the top ten today. He points to a first-time CEO taking over a $5 trillion company, an AI roadmap that is visibly behind, a holiday quarter with no standard iPhone 18 and a $2,000 foldable that sold out in minutes but is barely being made, and a valuation near 38 times earnings that leaves little room for error.They finish with the test that settles it: if you had $10,000 to invest for ten years with no tinkering, how much would you put in Apple?Stocks MentionedApple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL)Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL)NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ:NVDA)Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY)Intuitive Surgical, Inc. (NASDAQ:ISRG)#MyWallSt #StockClub #Apple #AAPL #BullVsBear #StockAnalysis #TechStocks #InvestingCHAPTERS0:00 Intro & Newsletter Plug1:12 This Week: Apple, Bull vs Bear2:26 The Rules: Coin Flip & the $10,000 Test5:19 The Bull Case: Apple's Two-Way Toll Booth6:51 Branding, Green Bubbles & Network Effects8:26 Switching Costs & the Walled Garden12:21 The App Store Cut & Apple Pay13:48 Why Apple Users Spend More16:21 Google's $20 Billion Default Search Deal17:32 $150B in Operating Profit & 30% Fewer Shares19:03 Apple vs. the AI Spending Race21:07 Outperforming the Magnificent Seven23:33 Tim Cook's Financial Vision25:32 The Bear Case: Biggest Isn't Best25:53 Only One of 2006's Top Ten Is Still There28:30 A First-Time CEO at a $5 Trillion Company30:55 Apple's Rough Start in AI34:04 Split Authority at the Top35:26 No New iPhone for Christmas38:50 The $2,000 iPhone Duo Sells Out40:08 Foldable: Experiment or Growth Leg?42:18 A 38x Earnings Valuation44:24 The Next Device Threat46:58 A Slow Drift, Not a Collapse49:04 How Much of $10,000 Would You Put in Apple?52:01 Wrap-Up

Join 100,000 investors who get our free weekly Stock Club newsletter every Friday, plus two free reports: https://joinstockclub.com Anthropic, the company behind Claude, filed for its IPO on October 26th, reportedly targeting a mid-November listing that could raise up to $100 billion, potentially the biggest stock market debut ever. Emmet and Mike spend the episode inside the S-1 itself, the 300-plus-page document Anthropic has to file before going public, separating the real numbers from the headline-grabbing ones.The much-repeated "$81 billion in losses" figure, for example, is mostly a non-cash accounting charge tied to convertible notes. On an operating basis, Anthropic actually lost around $700 million in the first half of 2026, down from $2.1 billion the year before, and generated $3.9 billion in operating cash flow. They dig into the founders' decision to keep 51% voting control, their pledge to give away 80% of their personal equity, net dollar retention that hit 900% among existing customers, and the eye-opening customer growth numbers buried deep in the filing. They also get into the parts of the S-1 that read less like a standard risk disclosure and more like a warning label, including disclosed AI behavior resembling blackmail and self-preservation, and close with the real question: would you actually put money into this IPO, and does a $1.5 to $2 trillion valuation for an 18-month-old product make any sense at all?Companies & Topics Discussed:Anthropic (pending IPO; reportedly listing on Nasdaq)OpenAIAmazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)Eli Lilly and Company (NYSE:LLY)Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ:SBUX)Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA)Meta Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:META)SpaceXBroadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO)Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOGL)Snowflake Inc. (NYSE:SNOW)CHAPTERS0:00 Intro & Stock Club Newsletter Plug1:13 This Week: Anthropic Files for IPO2:00 A $235 Billion Day for AI4:29 Why Private Markets Can't Keep Up With AI's Capital Needs5:37 Reading the S-1: Revenue Up 14-Fold to $16 Billion6:50 The $81 Billion Loss Headline, Debunked9:16 Why the Founders Kept 51% Voting Control10:38 The Founders' Pledge to Give Away 80% of Their Equity12:47 "We Will Halt Deployments If Safety Thresholds Are Breached"15:20 Claude Is Already Writing 90% of Its Own Code17:16 The Y2K Comparison, and Why This Risk Has No Red Line20:36 Net Dollar Retention Hit 900%22:24 The Jaw-Dropping Customer Numbers on Page 10525:30 Could AI Actually Help Cure Cancer?27:51 Compute Costs Are Falling as a Share of Revenue30:43 $600 Billion in Compute Commitments Through 203134:10 Why Two Companies Failing Could Take Down the Whole Market35:46 The Blackmail and Self-Preservation Behavior in the Filing41:12 Valuation Reportedly Fell From $2T to $1.5T in a Week42:54 Would You Put $10,000 Into the IPO?45:27 Comparing Anthropic's Valuation to Amazon and Eli Lilly49:16 Claude vs. ChatGPT: Would They Invest in Themselves?At MyWallSt, we believe great investing is about patience, discipline, and owning outstanding businesses. Our team researches global stocks, publishes transparent performance, and helps investors build long-term wealth without hype or guesswork. Horizon is our long-term buy-and-hold service, while Prophet is a five-minutes-a-month system that has trounced the average market returns over 17 years.#MyWallSt #StockClub #Anthropic #Claude #AI #IPO #StockMarket #Investing

Ireland’s budget brings three big changes for investors: capital gains tax falling from 33% to 31%, exit tax on funds dropping from 38% to 35%, and a brand new Irish investment account opening on July 1, 2027. Emmet sits down with Paul Overy, founder of Ask About Wealth and author of The Tricks of the Rich, to work out what it all means for your money.Paul ran the numbers on investing €12,000 a year for eight years at a 7% return. Under deemed disposal, the tax bill came to just over €11,000. Investing directly under CGT, just over €10,000. In the new account, just over €2,000 (before fees, which haven’t been announced yet). They also cover why Paul doesn’t think tax is the real barrier to investing in Ireland, the capital acquisition tax threshold gap, why an 8% rental yield can shrink to under 1%, and the 80/20 rule for turning a high income into lasting wealth.This episode is for educational purposes only and is not financial advice.Chapters00:00 Meet Paul Overy of Ask About Wealth01:23 Ireland’s budget: 3 big changes for investors02:52 Is tax really the barrier to investing?04:13 €12K a year for 8 years: deemed disposal vs CGT vs new account05:38 The fees caveat07:23 Will the banks, Revolut and Trading 212 keep it simple?08:43 Why tax breaks raise all boats10:31 Fear, knowledge and market crashes14:17 Will 31% CGT keep wealthy people in Ireland?15:37 When CGT was halved, receipts tripled17:22 Who will actually use the new account17:45 Is the 1% annual charge a wealth tax?19:37 The real barrier: impartial advice22:39 Who the new account suits best26:12 Capital acquisition tax: the €760K threshold gap28:18 Gifting money while you’re alive30:00 Why Irish people love property32:52 The 8% rental yield that was really 0.7%34:49 Inside Ask About Wealth35:46 Do you know what your pension costs?39:44 Turning income into wealth: the 80/20 rule42:55 The tricks of the rich45:41 Rory McIlroy and doing the workAt MyWallSt, we believe great investing is about patience, discipline, and owning outstanding businesses. Our team researches global stocks, publishes transparent performance, and helps investors build long-term wealth without hype or guesswork. Horizon is our long-term buy-and-hold service, while Prophet is a five-minutes-a-month system that has trounced the average market returns over 17 years.#MyWallSt #StockClub #IrishInvesting #DeemedDisposal #CapitalGainsTax #PersonalFinanceIreland #IrelandBudget

Emmet and Mike step back from individual stock picks this week to dig into something that's been quietly rattling markets: the circular nature of AI industry financing. OpenAI recently walked back its own annualized revenue figure from roughly $68 billion to $50 billion after admitting the larger number included gross revenue that gets immediately redistributed to partners, and the news knocked AI-adjacent stocks across the board.They break down the web of commitments connecting Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle, Microsoft, and Amazon, where the same dollars seem to flow from investor to AI lab to cloud provider to chipmaker and back again. Citing a Financial Times analysis of the sector, they discuss findings that around 176 deals worth a combined $3.6 trillion exist between roughly 200 entities, with the majority flagged as highly circular. They also cover the scale of hyperscaler debt issuance, OpenAI's delayed IPO timeline, and why market breadth has narrowed so sharply around a handful of AI-exposed names.The episode closes with the regular Following Prophet segment, where Emmet reviews the model portfolio's track record through its third consecutive negative rebalance.Companies & Topics DiscussedOpenAINvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA)Oracle Corporation (NYSE:ORCL)Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT)Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN)AnthropicCHAPTERS0:00 Intro: The $10 Bill Analogy for AI's Circular Economy0:59 Welcome & Catching Up3:10 Why This Episode, Why Now4:24 OpenAI's Revenue Walkback: $68B to $50B7:28 OpenAI's IPO Delay & Fundraising Pressure9:44 The FT's "Joining the Dots of Big AI" & the $3.6 Trillion Web11:19 How the Nvidia-OpenAI-Oracle-Microsoft Loop Works14:25 Market Breadth: 40% of the S&P 500 in 10 Names16:02 Hyperscalers Taking on Debt20:47 OpenAI's Gross Margins & Projected Cash Burn23:22 The Amazon Comparison: Building a Moat Through Losses28:11 Will Humanity Keep Pace With AI?32:21 China's Open-Weight Model Approach37:09 Wrapping Up: What We Actually Know37:48 Following Prophet: Three Losing Rebalances in a Row43:18 OutroAt MyWallSt, we believe great investing is about patience, discipline, and owning outstanding businesses. Our team researches global stocks, publishes transparent performance, and helps investors build long-term wealth without hype or guesswork. Horizon is our long-term buy-and-hold service, while Prophet is a five-minutes-a-month system that has trounced the average market returns over 17 years.#MyWallSt #StockClub #AI #AIBubble #OpenAI #Nvidia #StockMarket #Investing #TechStocks

This week Stock Club tries something new: instead of each picking a different stock, Emmet and Mike go head to head on the same one. Mike makes the bear case against Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX), and Emmet, a 22-year shareholder, argues the bull case, both from today's price after the stock has fallen roughly 50 percent from its all-time high in June 2025.Mike lays out the risks: stagnant viewership growth, a weak Emmy season without a breakout hit since Stranger Things, saturation in Netflix's most profitable markets, competition for attention from TikTok and YouTube, and the pressure of rising content costs in live sports. Emmet counters with Netflix's position as what he calls the world's default TV channel, improving unit economics, double-digit revenue growth across every region in Q2 2026, a fast-growing ad tier approaching $3 billion in revenue this year, and a valuation that's fallen from roughly 40 times earnings to under 20.They wrap with their take on the collapsed Warner Bros. Discovery acquisition and why walking away from that deal might have been one of management's smartest moves this year.#MyWallSt #StockClub #Netflix #NFLX #BullVsBear #StreamingWars #StockAnalysis #ValueInvestingStocks Mentioned: Netflix, Inc. (NASDAQ:NFLX)0:00 Intro: A New Bull vs Bear Format1:05 Why Talk About Netflix Now?2:22 The Bear Case Begins: Why Has the Stock Fallen?3:13 Stagnant Viewership & a Weak Emmy Season7:37 Saturated Markets: The Growth Problem9:49 Competing for Attention: TikTok, YouTube & Younger Viewers18:11 Netflix's Stock Journey: $20 to $130 to $6719:27 Live Sports Costs & Margin Pressure21:30 The Streaming Fatigue Problem28:18 The Bull Case Begins: 22 Years as a Shareholder33:17 Three 40,000-Foot Observations on Netflix40:11 The 2026 Selloff as a Buying Opportunity44:34 Q2 2026 Results: Revenue, Margins & Guidance46:20 International Growth Across Every Region49:18 Advertising: The Next Growth Engine52:36 Why Walking Away From Warner Bros. Discovery Mattered56:46 Closing Thoughts & Listener Feedback RequestAt MyWallSt, we believe great investing is about patience, discipline, and owning outstanding businesses. Our team researches global stocks, publishes transparent performance, and helps investors build long-term wealth without hype or guesswork. Horizon is our long-term buy-and-hold service, while Prophet is a five-minutes-a-month system that has trounced the average market returns over 17 years.