The Follio Property Podcast

Most of the headlines treat Australian property as one market that's all falling at the same pace. Lachlan Delahunty breaks down the seven forces that actually drive property values, and why they explain exactly which markets are protected and which are not. Get Access to PropStac 👉: https://follio.com.au/propstac-waitlist?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_102 Discuss Your Portfolio 👉: https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_102 Australia's residential market has wiped nearly a trillion dollars in value in six months, with high interest rates at 4.35% cash rate and a 20-30% drop in lending crushing borrowing capacity. But this is not one market, it's markets within markets. In this episode, we unpack the 7 key forces shaping property values right now: interest rates, credit availability, tax and policy, income and employment, sentiment expectations, supply and affordability, and external shocks. You'll learn why Sydney and Melbourne remain most sensitive to rate rises and face continued declines, why Brisbane and Adelaide are declining at a slower pace despite hitting affordability peaks, and why Perth, Darwin and Canberra are protected in 2026 thanks to severe supply shortfalls, jobs growth and high incomes. Plus: why low consumer sentiment could mean the best opportunities for sophisticated investors, and why major government intervention to stimulate credit and policy is likely in 2027. WHAT YOU'LL LEARN: ✅ Why the Australian property market will continue to fall for the rest of 2026, but less aggressively ✅ The 7 forces driving house prices: rates, credit, tax, jobs, sentiment, supply & shocks ✅ Sydney property market vs Melbourne: why headlines will focus here ✅ Why Perth property, Darwin and Canberra are holding up (32,800 home shortfall in Perth) ✅ Brisbane property, Adelaide outlook and affordability peaks explained ✅ Property investment Australia strategy when sentiment is at historic lows ✅ What 2027 government stimulus could mean for rents, prices and your portfolio Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: the seven forces and the 2026 outlook 03:25 Interest rates and borrowing capacity 06:18 Credit availability 12:34 Tax and policy, national and state 16:06 Income, employment and population 18:58 Sentiment and the affordability index 26:26 Supply and the housing shortfall 28:03 External shocks 30:40 The 2026 outlook, market by market About The Follio Property Podcast Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical. 📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/ 📩 Contact Us: [email protected] 📲 Follow Us on Social: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/ Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/ Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/ Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions Key Themes: Australian property market | real estate Australia | Australia housing market crash | Sydney property market | property investment Australia #AustralianPropertyMarket #RealEstateAustralia #AustraliaHousingMarket #SydneyPropertyMarket #PerthProperty #BrisbaneProperty #PropertyInvestmentAustralia #AustralianRealEstate #HousingMarketCrash #InterestRatesAustralia #PropertyForecast2026 #FirstHomeBuyerAustralia #PropertyInvesting #RealEstateInvesting #HousingAffordability

Every capital city fell last week, except one submarket. Melbourne units are the only market in the country Cotalit y has showing growth, and Lachlan Delahunty explains exactly why, plus a real portfolio breakdown showing what to sell and what to buy in this environment. Get Access to PropStac 👉: https://follio.com.au/propstac-waitlist?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_101 Get In Touch 👉: https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_101 For property owners, the danger isn't the fall itself. It's the cash buffer. Holding less than a 5% buffer puts you on a knife's edge the moment financial stress hits, because that's when banks start looking to reclaim properties. Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty argue that waiting 12 to 18 months in a downturn is the worst move available,  buyer pools thin out and price haircuts of 30 to 40% become the norm, not the exception. For anyone doing property investment in Australia, this is the numbers-first conversation most investors avoid right up until the bank forces it. We go city by city across the Australian property market: why Melbourne is the only capital improving on the four-week rolling average, what's dragging Brisbane, Sydney, Adelaide and Perth lower, why [Melbourne units] keep beating houses on the replacement cost argument, and how the shift away from auctions is changing how vendors negotiate in a soft market. Plus the difference between wholesale and retail unit purchases, how a 5.5%+ yield can turn a negatively geared property portfolio into one that pays for itself in the current interest rates environment, and what a pre-Christmas rate rise would do to prices into 2027. What we cover in this Episode: ✅ Know your numbers before the market makes you: debt, true equity, debt-to-income and cash-to-debt ✅ Why a 2% cash buffer puts you one rate rise away from a forced sale, and the 10% floor that protects you ✅ Which regional assets go first, and what happens when investor demand leaves Townsville and Gladstone ✅ The FOMO-stage exit rule: why holding too long costs 30–40%, not 10–15% ✅ Selling with a tenant vs vacant, and which buyer pool you're actually pitching ✅ Commercial at 5.5%+ vs high-yield residential: which fits a cash-flow-negative portfolio ✅ Wholesale vs retail units: how buying a whole complex in one line lands a discount ✅ Why land exposure beats "air space" in a 200-unit tower ✅ Melbourne units trading $300K–$500K below replacement cost, and what that means for capital growth ✅ The two-speed economy and the 2009 playbook for what happens when rates fall Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: the portfolio and the market update 04:00 A real composite portfolio, broken down 05:51 Which two properties to sell, and why 11:20 Sell now or wait, and with or without a tenant 15:52 What to buy instead: commercial or Melbourne units 16:47 Wholesale versus retail units explained 19:51 Melbourne units: the only market still growing 21:29 Auction clearance and the shift to private treaty 24:00 Units versus apartments: what to actually buy 29:42 The two-speed market and the rate outlook About The Follio Property Podcast Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical. 📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/ 📩 Contact Us: [email protected] 📲 Follow Us on Social: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/ Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/ Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/ Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions Key Themes: Australian property market | property investment Australia | property portfolio Australia | housing market Australia 2026 | property market update | investment property cash flow | cash buffer | debt to income ratio | Melbourne units | property market crash Australia  #PropertyInvestmentAustralia #AustralianPropertyMarket #PropertyMarketUpdate #InvestmentPropertyCashFlow #CashBuffer #DebtToIncomeRatio #NegativeGearing #MelbourneUnits #MelbournePropertyMarket #PropertyPortfolio #InterestRatesAustralia #PropertyMarket2026 #AustralianRealEstate #InvestmentPropertyAustralia #PropertyInvesting

Negative gearing is often framed as a tax break for the wealthy. Accountant Nathan Hood points to ATO data suggesting the opposite: around 70% of negative gearing claims come from people with a single property, and two-thirds of those earn under $80,000 a year. Access PropStac 👉: https://follio.com.au/propstac-waitlist?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_100 Get In Touch 👉: https://follio.com.au/contact-us?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_100 Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty bring accountant Nathan Hood back to the podcast to work through what the budget changes actually mean for how you structure and hold property. Nathan explains who the changes hurt most, why the days of simple property investing are over, and why getting the right advice now matters more than it used to. They cover the property versus shares debate and why property has always been a debt game, where the real opportunities sit after the changes, across the main residence exemption, company structures and self-managed super, and why capital gains indexation replacing the 50% discount makes flipping property far less attractive. Nathan also explains why many investors will need a fresh valuation sooner rather than later, how a higher valuation can save tens of thousands in tax, and why the old buy-and-move-in strategy has given way to a retain-and-subdivide approach in blue chip suburbs. This is general information, not personal, tax or financial advice, and reflects the guest's and hosts' views. Everyone's situation is different, so speak to a qualified professional about yours. What we cover: ✅ Why the ATO data suggests negative gearing mostly benefits single-property owners ✅ Who the budget changes actually hurt most ✅ Property versus shares, the debt game, and how margin calls really work ✅ Where the opportunities are: main residence, company structures and super ✅ The new deductible versus non-deductible debt strategy ✅ Company and trust structures after the budget, and who they suit ✅ Why CGT indexation replacing the 50% discount makes flipping far less viable ✅ Why you may need a property valuation now, and how it saves tax ✅ The unintended SMSF shift the changes created ✅ The retain-and-subdivide strategy replacing the old approach Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: returning guest Nathan Hood 04:14 The negative gearing myth: who really claims it 07:14 Property versus shares: the debt game 10:53 Margin calls and why property debt works differently 12:26 Where the opportunities are: main residence, company, super 17:14 The new debt strategy: deductible versus non-deductible 20:08 Company and trust structures after the budget 23:52 CGT indexation versus the 50% discount: why flipping is dead 26:07 Why you need a valuation now, and how to get it right 31:30 SMSF and the retain-and-subdivide strategy Follow Nathan Hood: LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nathanhoodperth/ Business: https://carbongroup.com.au/ About The Follio Property Podcast Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical. 📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/ 📩 Contact Us: [email protected] 📲 Follow Us on Social: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/ Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/ Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/ Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions Key Themes: negative gearing Australia | capital gains tax indexation | property tax strategy | post budget property | company and trust structures | SMSF property | property valuation | property versus shares | Follio property podcast #AustralianProperty #NegativeGearing #CapitalGainsTax #PropertyTax #PropertyInvesting #SMSF #PropertyStrategy #TaxStrategy #FollioPropertyPodcast

The Australian property market just shifted. This Pre-Budget vs Post-Budget breakdown reveals why real estate Australia prices are falling while affordability hits record lows, and what it means if you want to buy property in Australia. Get Access to PropStac: https://follio.com.au/propstac-waitlist?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_99 Speak with an Advisor: https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_99 In this episode, we unpack the Labor May Budget impact on the Australian property market, including changes to negative gearing for investors, first home buyer demand, rents, and new build supply. If you follow real estate Australia, property investing, or the rental crisis Australia, this is the data-led review of what was promised pre-budget versus what happened post-budget, from negative equity to builder insolvencies to investor exit. What We Cover In This Episode: ✅ Why real estate Australia prices are falling yet affordability is at record lows ✅ 20% to 25% drop in first home buyers Australia applications post-budget ✅ 50,000+ buyers in negative equity and who is most exposed ✅ Rental crisis Australia update: why rents will continue to rise ✅ Investor exodus and what it means for property investing ✅ Bathla Group collapse and insolvency risk for big builders ✅ Rental caps, supply myths, and the housing market crash debate Timestamps: 00:00 Intro: reviewing the budget's property impact 06:03 Negative gearing to new builds: intent versus outcome 09:06 First home buyers, and why they were priced out again 12:05 Markets within markets: where investors moved 15:04 Renters, rising rents and the rental cap risk 19:27 Was the budget designed to cool prices? 20:09 The nuanced take: interest rates as the real driver 24:43 Predictions for the next three months 25:01 The 18.6-year property cycle debate 27:12 Wrap: rents, first home buyers and builders ahead About The Follio Property Podcast Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical. 📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/ 📩 Contact Us: [email protected] 📲 Follow Us on Social: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/ Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/ Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/ Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions Key Themes: Australian Property Market | First Home Buyers Australia | Rental Crisis Australia | Real Estate Australia | Property Investing | Housing Market Crash | Perth Property Market | Australian Federal Budget Comment below: Are you buying, holding, or exiting right now? #AustralianPropertyMarket #RealEstateAustralia #FirstHomeBuyersAustralia #RentalCrisisAustralia #PropertyInvesting #HousingMarketCrash #AustraliaProperty #NegativeGearing #PerthPropertyMarket #PropertyMarketAustralia #RentCrisis #HousingAffordability

The Australian property market just dropped 0.9% nationally as Sydney leads the decline. If you own real estate in Australia or plan to buy property Australia wide, this data changes where to invest next. Get Access to PropStac 👉: https://follio.com.au/propstac-waitlist?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_98 Contact Us 👉: https://follio.com.au/contact-us/?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=podcast&utm_campaign=episode_98 This monthly wrap breaks down the Australian property market with verified capital city data. Sydney property fell 1.4% for the month, 4.7% for the quarter and 7.1% from peak with days on market up 70% to 51 days. Melbourne and Brisbane also fell 1.1% and 1%, while Perth property market slipped 0.8% but days on market blew out over 200% from 11 to 34 days. Darwin was the only city to grow at 0.6%. We cover why property investment Australia is splitting between houses and units, with Sydney units and Melbourne units holding value far better than houses, plus the rental squeeze with national vacancy at 1.9% and rents up 5.7% annually. For anyone researching where to buy property in Australia or comparing Brisbane property market vs Melbourne property market vs Perth property market, this gives you the investment grade view before you act. What we cover in this episode: ✅ Why Sydney is down 7.1% from peak and why days on market jumped to 51 days ✅ Melbourne property market vs Brisbane property market: which is holding value better ✅ Perth property market update: 0.8% dip but 200% surge in days on market explained ✅ Houses vs units: why Melbourne units rated A and Sydney units rated B+ for property investing ✅ Mortgage stress at an 18 year high with 32.5% of borrowers stressed and lending falling ✅ Rental market tight at 1.9% vacancy, Darwin surges, and 92% chance of a November rate hike Timestamps: 00:00 Intro and the national picture: every capital's fall 03:37 Houses versus units: where value is holding 05:40 Days on market: the early warning signal 10:00 Which markets have peaked, and how far they've fallen 13:00 The 5 and 10 year trends, and the underperformers 16:18 Interest rates: why Lachlan disagrees with a November hike 19:04 Rents and vacancy: the tailwind for investors 22:01 Lending, bank share and mortgage stress 25:52 The green shoots, and where the value is 30:50 Every capital graded, A to F About The Follio Property Podcast Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical. 📍 Visit Our Website: https://follio.com.au/ 📩 Contact Us: [email protected] 📲 Follow Us on Social: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/folliopropertypod/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@folliopropertypod Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/4Akt4N53zsb4ldzFNlTwad?si=AFEgYOAiSh2QGbK8AfFLyw Lachlan Delahunty: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lachlandelahunty/ Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/ Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/ Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions Key Themes: Australian property market update  | Sydney property market crash  | Melbourne property market analysis | Brisbane property market outlook  | Perth property market trends  |  property investment Australia strategy  |  real estate Australia investment grades  | where to buy property Australia #AustralianPropertyMarket #RealEstateAustralia #PropertyInvestmentAustralia #SydneyPropertyMarket #MelbournePropertyMarket #BrisbanePropertyMarket #PerthPropertyMarket #PropertyInvesting #RealEstateInvesting #WhereToBuyPropertyAustralia #FirstHomeBuyer #AustraliaProperty #PropertyMarketUpdate