Tel Aviv Diary Podcast

In a solo episode recorded the Sunday after his daughter’s wedding, Marc Schulman looks at a week that turned from quiet to crowded with news, two days before Israel votes.Marc explains why he spent the past weeks worried that Netanyahu would start a war with Iran to change the course of the election, and why reports suggest Trump stopped him. He discusses the deal said to lie behind Trump’s endorsement, including reported promises to keep Ben Gvir out of the next government, form a national unity government and step down after a year, and why he wouldn’t bet on any of them.He covers the Hamas attack on a checkpoint outside Hebron that killed two soldiers and the demolitions that followed, and asks whether such demolitions actually deter anyone. He also addresses Netanyahu’s remarkable statement that Israel must prepare for sweeping sanctions on its banks, possibly by turning to crypto, and the Bank of Israel’s sharp rebuttal.Marc describes the rally of bereaved and hostage families, which he estimates drew about 100,000 people, demanding a state commission of inquiry into October 7th, and explains why Netanyahu has fought so hard to block one. He looks at turnout, the Israelis flying home to vote, and Netanyahu’s “me or a Palestinian state” message, which echoes his 1996 campaign against Shimon Peres.Looking past the election, he weighs the chances of renewed war with Iran after the US midterms, Israel’s Arrow interceptor production, and why regime change is the wrong goal to declare publicly. He ends with the midterms themselves, a likely Democratic House, a possible Democratic Senate, and what Democrats should do with their gains. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit marcschulman.substack.com/subscribe

After October 7 and years of war, can Israelis envision a different future—and who is offering a credible path toward it?Journalist Emmanuelle Elbaz-Phelps, Israel correspondent for Le Point and host of the INSS podcast Meshadrim Bitachon, joins Marc Schulman for a candid conversation about the deeper questions behind Israel’s daily headlines.They discuss how trauma has reshaped Israeli society, the absence of a compelling vision for peace and security, racism toward Arab citizens, and the Israeli-Palestinian realities often missing from media coverage. Elbaz-Phelps also reflects on reporting in Hebrew and French, maintaining journalistic independence, and challenging audiences with facts they may prefer to overlook.From the power of extremists to the pressures of social media, this episode examines what stands in the way of change—and where there may still be grounds for hope. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit marcschulman.substack.com/subscribe

Maj. Gen. (res.) Nimrod Sheffer spent 37 years in uniform — fighter pilot, squadron commander, head of Air Force operations, Chief of Air Staff — then four years as head of the IDF Planning Directorate under Gantz and Eizenkot, then three years as CEO and President of Israel Aerospace Industries. He could have retired to his grandchildren. Instead he is number 11 on the Democrats’ list, two weeks out from the election.He explains what moved him: the judicial overhaul of January 2023, and then the conclusion he reached after October 7 that the dismantling of Israel’s public systems was not incompetence but policy. He describes what a new government would actually do on day one, and reveals that plans, draft legislation, cabinet decisions and budgets have been written for every ministry over the past two and a half years, agreed in advance with the leaderships of the likely coalition parties. The missing fifth element, he says, is people.We go through the files one by one. Syria, which he calls the easy one, built back from the 1974 framework. Lebanon, where disarming Hezbollah is not merely desirable but mandatory. Gaza, where his answer is to accept the Trump plan and start moving, and where he notes that Hamas now has more operatives than it had before the war. And Iran, where his assessment is blunt: the war set out to end the nuclear program, destroy the missile arsenal and stop the export of terror, and on all three counts we are not where we said we would be. Israel’s position relative to Iran, he argues, is worse than before the war, not better.We also talk about the 30,000 teachers Israel is short, about the racism he traces back to the day the country stopped fighting for its own principles after Rabin’s murder, and about why no camp that writes off twenty percent of its citizens can call itself democratic. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit marcschulman.substack.com/subscribe

Dr. Meir Javedanfar was born in Tehran and left at 14, a year after his bar mitzvah. He has written about Iran since 2005 and has taught contemporary Iranian studies at Reichman University since 2011. In this episode he tells Marc Schulman he expects the Islamic Republic to start another round of fighting with the United States.His reasoning starts with resources. The US naval blockade has stopped Iran’s oil exports and cut off about 80 percent of the imports that used to arrive through Gulf ports. Oil prices haven’t moved despite the closure of Bab al-Mandab, and the Gulf states haven’t asked the Americans to leave. Javedanfar compares the faction now in charge in Tehran to Trotsky’s advocates of permanent revolution. He says that faction sees raising the war’s cost before the US midterms as its only lever.He describes the regime’s hardliners as an economic class more than a religious one. People who would otherwise ride the bus now run sanctions-busting oil brokerages in the UAE, with drivers and multimillion-dollar budgets. They know they lose everything if the regime falls. In his view, Islam has become a veneer.Marc and Meir also cover why Israel’s readiness to kill Iranian commanders deters Tehran more than American strikes on infrastructure. They discuss why the UAE is the likeliest target after Mohammed bin Zayed hosted Netanyahu, and why Erdogan wants the regime to survive. Javedanfar points to a wave of resignations by Iranian teachers and nurses, which has not yet reached the security forces.The conversation ends with a dream Marc asks for: the regime’s fall. Javedanfar expects chaos and score-settling over mass graves at first, and a water crisis no new government could fix quickly. He still thinks Iran’s chances would be far better without this regime. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit marcschulman.substack.com/subscribe

October 6th used to belong to the Yom Kippur War. This year it falls between the government’s official October 7th memorial, held on the Hebrew date, and the ceremonies the families will hold tomorrow in Yarkon Park and at Kibbutz Re’im.On this in-between day, Marc Schulman reads from the October 7th chapter of his new book, “Between Hope and Fear: Israel from Oslo to October 7th.” The readings follow the morning hour by hour. Sergeant Roni Eshel reports the breach from the Nahal Oz surveillance room. Civilian security squads hold off hundreds of attackers at Be’eri and Nir Oz. Aner Shapira throws grenades back out of a roadside shelter near Re’im. Paramedic Amit Mann treats the wounded in Be’eri’s dental clinic until the end. The chapter then asks the question that still haunts Israel: where was the army?Marc then reads from his assessment of what he calls Israel’s three-and-a-half-front war, including the policy of treating Hamas as a counterweight to the Palestinian Authority.Speaking in his own voice, Marc asks why, three years on, there is still no commission of inquiry of any kind. He connects that failure to Meron, to the submarine affair, and to the FlyDubai incident. He considers the two narratives October 7th left behind and argues that both are true. He explains why Israel should aim to be Athens rather than Sparta, and why he is backing Gadi Eisenkot in the coming election. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit marcschulman.substack.com/subscribe