My History Can Beat Up Your Politics

There's an expectation that every midterm will be a wave. 2026 well could be, in line with 1994, 2014 or 2006. But it's not automatic. In this episode we discuss the modern reality of midterms. Party losses are getting lower on average, and what a wave is has changed. In this episode we focus on 1990, the so-called Seinfeld Election (or a midterm about nothing * which to observers seemed to have no result) and Carter's "Disco Midterm" of 1978. Like a disco record, it went round and round, expected to be a blowout for his party, but it wasn't. Not that it was great for Carter, but it wasn't a big loss as expected. What defines these kind of non-wave elections is that both parties could point to something. In 1990, a Minnesota GOP Senator unexpectedly looses, but a Democratic New Jersey Senator gets a frightening scare. A look at the non wave elections, that still had consequences. * to be clear it was named so in a POLITICO article in the 2000s, long after Seinfeld began airing as a show. We are part of Airwave Network We have a PATREON - support us. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

4 years ago we said this... Call 2022 the Mick Jagger midterm - neither party got fully what they wanted. Both parties experienced win and losses. It is, so far, largely a "stave midterm" where the President's party lost less seats than expected - we've discussed a few of these on this podcast, and thus for the party expected to have lost seats a kind of win. Yet in this case as opposed to other 'stave' midterms, the President's Party looks like they will lose the house. So when is a win a win and a loss a loss? Is this like the 1970, 1990 or 1994 or 1974 elections? We discuss all this and talk about a midterm in the past. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

A normal midterm with its usual issues between the parties becomes a test for a new President when a labor strike unexpectedly reaches his desk. The opposition party gains, but so does his. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Nixon's first presidential midterm election (the election in which the House and Senate would be up for election) would turn out to be his last, but no one knew it at the time. Nixon tried something Presidents hadn't tried and took off in Air Force One to boost GOP candidates and attack hippie "thugs" across the country. He hoped to reverse the midterm trend. He did not, and he blamed bad audio and unhelpful political science. He may have done better than he thought. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Grover Cleveland, Woodrow Wilson and William McKinley's midterm elections are not remembered. But each one changed history in its own way. One confined a President, the other changed a party. And the third may have cemented America's place in the world. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices