The Mustard Seed Bitcoin Podcast

Sam Baker, research analyst at River, joins me to explain why Bitcoin could reach $840,000 within the next three to five years. We discuss the institutional adoption and capital inflows behind River’s model, the case for a 10% Bitcoin allocation, why each dollar invested can add several dollars to Bitcoin’s market cap, custody considerations, the CLARITY Act, AI’s role in accelerating macro trends, and why businesses are currently driving Bitcoin demand.Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:41 The case for $840,000 Bitcoin06:55 Which investors are adopting Bitcoin?09:22 Why $1 of buying can add more than $1 to market cap14:00 The case for a 10% Bitcoin allocation20:43 What is Bitcoin?23:04 How much Bitcoin is too much?25:25 What new Bitcoin investors should know26:28 Exchange custody vs. self-custody29:02 What would confirm the $840,000 thesis?30:42 The CLARITY Act32:09 Would $840,000 Bitcoin still be early?36:05 How AI could accelerate Bitcoin adoption38:27 Businesses are driving Bitcoin demand41:09 Closing thoughts

Matt Crosby joins me to break down what the data is saying about Bitcoin today and whether the bear-market bottom is already behind us.We discuss Bitcoin’s price and time capitulation, MVRV and on-chain valuation, long-term versus short-term holders, diminishing volatility, global M2 and DXY, the four-year cycle, and the signals Matt believes point toward a new phase of the Bitcoin market.Timestamps:00:00 Intro00:38 Matt Crosby’s background and Look Into Bitcoin02:30 How predictive is on-chain data?08:28 Why Matt uses percentile-based Bitcoin valuation14:24 Is the Bitcoin bottom in?19:16 Why Bitcoin bear markets happen24:25 Price capitulation vs. time capitulation31:39 Bitcoin’s upside as volatility declines36:20 Rethinking long-term vs. short-term holders43:00 Is Bitcoin’s four-year cycle real?49:00 Presidential cycles, seasonality and market myths52:00 Long-term holder conviction and the next bull market55:08 Where to follow Matt

Luke Broyles joins me to explain why he believes Bitcoin could eventually reach $20 million per coin. We discuss the accelerating pace of technology, the growth of U.S. debt, AI, monetary debasement, and why Luke thinks Bitcoin sits at the intersection of these long-term trends. We also explore why calling Bitcoin "digital gold" may dramatically undersell its potential and why most Bitcoin price targets could be far too low. This is a long-term conversation about where Bitcoin, technology, and the global financial system may be heading.Timestamps:0:00 Introduction1:03 Luke Broyles' Bitcoin thesis5:49 Why the future will change faster than the past10:21 The three pillars of Luke's worldview11:40 AI, Starship, robotics and accelerating technology19:09 Why technological progress keeps accelerating22:14 Is the global debt market a Ponzi scheme?25:24 Where U.S. government debt is headed27:34 What the debt actually means for taxpayers31:09 Treasury buybacks and Bitcoin34:12 Could the average house eventually cost $40 million?37:03 The collision between technology and debt39:37 Why technology demonetizes everything41:08 Bitcoin and the significance of 21 million42:20 How technological deflation worsens the debt problem43:21 Why the AI bull case could hurt AI stocks47:06 Why Bitcoin could reach $20 million49:54 Bitcoin versus gold53:18 $5M, $10M and $100M Bitcoin55:18 Why "digital gold" undersells Bitcoin56:32 Will AI take everyone's jobs?58:34 Why Bitcoin could be far bigger than gold1:01:27 Bitcoin's next 50 years1:02:46 Mining the final Bitcoin1:04:32 Could Bitcoin still fail?1:06:55 Is Bitcoin actually the lower-risk asset?1:08:39 Why everyone should get off zero1:10:34 Closing thoughts

Sminston With joins me to explain why Bitcoin’s power law has remained remarkably consistent and how PMI, liquidity, and AI may help explain Bitcoin’s current cycle. We also discuss what could invalidate the power law, the possibility of a $200K-$300K Bitcoin supercycle, and why accumulating 1 BTC is becoming increasingly difficult.Timestamps:0:00 Sminston’s background and journey to Bitcoin5:30 Why power laws matter for Bitcoin12:01 Why the power law may be more robust than stock-to-flow16:14 Why Bitcoin follows a power law19:45 PMI, business cycles, and Bitcoin volatility24:19 Why Bitcoin and PMI are diverging28:01 The PMI level that could ignite Bitcoin32:33 Liquidity, AI, and the muted bull market36:57 Could Bitcoin enter a supercycle?40:13 What would break the Bitcoin power law?44:06 How much Bitcoin do you need to retire?51:02 Sminston’s new Bitcoin data platform

Vijay Boyapati, author of *The Bullish Case for Bitcoin*, joins me to discuss why Bitcoin may be in the “boring low” of its cycle, why he still sees a path to gold parity and ~20x upside, and what could drive the next bull market.We also discuss AI and Bitcoin security, self-custody, Bitcoin price models, ETFs, treasury companies, and what a future Bitcoin standard could look like.Timestamps:00:00 Introduction00:19 What Vijay Got Right About Bitcoin06:03 Is Vijay More Bullish Today?08:07 How Vijay Values Bitcoin10:36 What Stands Between Bitcoin and Gold Parity?11:31 Understanding the Current Bitcoin Cycle16:48 Is AI Sucking Capital Away From Bitcoin?20:49 AI, Coldcard and Bitcoin Security27:14 Will AI Make Bitcoin Software Stronger?28:04 Stock-to-Flow, Power Law and Bitcoin Price Models31:49 What Could Trigger the Next Bitcoin Bull Market?34:13 Where Will the Next Wave of Capital Come From?37:22 What Would a Bitcoin Standard Look Like?39:55 Why Bear Markets Create Opportunity41:39 Where to Follow Vijay