WITA's Friday Trade Exchange

A week after the midterms, our trade insiders examine the leverage a Democrat-led Congress may have to shift policies on tariffs —ranging from the Canada 338 tariffs to targeted tariff relief on household essentials, groceries, and home building inputs. The panel also weighs how tempting the billions of dollars raised by duties may be to Congress, while identifying potential room for bipartisan movement on export controls, critical minerals, and a transparent product exclusion process.The discussion then shifts to bilateral talks, whether trading partners like Canada should wait on Congress, examines structural excess capacity investigations, and considers whether countries invited to join collective action against China could also face Section 301 actions themselves. Heading into APEC, the panelists maintain low expectations for President Trump’s meeting with President Xi, characterizing the current dynamic as a fragile truce. Finally, the panel closes by analyzing whether recent NVIDIA developments could drive bipartisan tech export controls in 2027 and whether putting export controls on the negotiating table creates lasting challenges for the United States.Featured Speakers:Wendy Cutler, Senior Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute; former Acting Deputy United States Trade RepresentativeBlake Harden, Managing Director, Washington Council Ernst & Young; previously served as Trade Counsel on the House Ways & Means Committee; and in the office of the Chief Counsel at U.S. Customs and Border ProtectionKate Kalutkiewicz, Senior Managing Director, McLarty Associates; former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for International Trade, National Economic Council, in the first Trump AdministrationArun Venkataraman, Partner, Covington & Burling; former Assistant Secretary of Commerce & Director General of the US & Foreign Commercial Service; and former Director for India and associate general council at USTR

Description: In this week’s episode, our trade insiders unpack the implications of Tuesday’s election for U.S. trade policy, as exit polls show tariffs were front of mind for voters from Maine and Michigan, to Texas and Kansas. The panel weighs what a new Congress could do about tariffs under Section 338 and Section 122, and whether enough Republicans could peel off to override a veto as power ebbs from a lame duck presidency. The insiders also debate what voters rejected, from the steel tariffs that closed a Del Monte peach cannery to what separates a dumb tariff from a smart tariff. The conversation then turns to whether Ambassador Greer can cut deals with Canada and Mexico to get the USMCA revision done; what the current rules of origin mean for auto jobs, and the risk that the Europeans over-interpret the election outcome as increasing their leverage. They close on what may be the administration’s next big decision: how to deal with China vis-à-vis our other trading partners in the context of the structural excess capacity 301 tariffs.Featured Speakers:Ed Gresser, Vice President & Director for Trade & Global Markets, Progressive Policy Institute; former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Trade Policy and Economics - author of the Trade Fact of the WeekChris Padilla, Senior Advisor, Brunswick Group; former Under Secretary of Commerce for International TradeDawn Shackleford, President at Looking Glass Trade, LLC; former Executive Director for Trade Agreements Policy & Negotiations, Department of Commerce; former Assistant USTR for WTO & Multilateral AffairsStephen Vaughn, Partner, International Trade, King & Spalding LLP; former General Counsel, Office of the United States Trade Representative under first Trump Administration

On our All Hallows Eve eve podcast, our trade insiders discuss the Brazil election and the looming U.S. midterms, an executive order on robotics and industrial machinery, and Maine tariff treats. They also discuss whether the apparent postponement of the excess capacity Section 301s past the U.S. election is pure politics or if it signals a new approach? The panel weighs tariffs as a political liability tied to affordability and corruption, and what a Democratic Congress might attempt, from limiting the President’s tariff authority to a transparent product exclusion process. The panelists then question whether tariff threats remain credible as unfinished negotiations with India, Vietnam, and Thailand wait on the excess capacity tariffs. With two of our podcasters just back from trips to Japan and Canada, they report on Japanese uneasiness beneath strong economic ties, the U.S.-Canada trade war, possible congressional scrutiny of investment deals, and Costa Rica seeing CPTPP more as a trick than a treat.Featured Speakers:Wendy Cutler, Senior Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute; former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade RepresentativeJoe Damond, Non-resident Senior Associate at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in their Southeast Asia program; former Deputy Assistant USTR for AsiaKellie Meiman Hock, Senior Counselor, McLarty Associates; Adjunct Professor, Georgetown University; Board Member, Inter-American Dialogue; former Director of Brazil and the Southern Cone, Office of the United States Trade RepresentativeMike Smart, Managing Director, Rock Creek Global Advisors; former Director for International Trade and Investment, National Security Council, The White House; former Trade Counsel, Democratic Staff, U.S. Senate Committee on Finance

This week, our trade insiders begin with the EU facing up to the scope of its China challenges: Germany’s flip from doves to hawks as the EU bears the brunt of the Chinese manufacturing trade surplus; a Council call to urgently look at new instruments to address the leaky tupperware problem; European skepticism about working with the United States, and what the 301 on excess capacity might signal. They then turn to proposed U.S. rules on outbound investment in biotech; the executive order waiving the tariffs and sanctions mandated in the Lindsey Graham sanctioning Russia law with the U.S. midterms less than two weeks away. They close with the first court challenge to the Section 338 duties on Canada, the 301 forced labor cases at the U.S. Court of International Trade, and whether Congress should (or could) close the Section 338 “loophole.”Featured Speakers:Peter Harrell, Visiting Scholar, Georgetown Institute for International Economic Law; former Senior Director, International Economics, at the White House under President Biden, whose LinkedIn post are much reads for trade nerds.Daniel Mullaney, Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Atlantic Council; former Assistant U.S. Trade Representative for Europe and the Middle EastNeena Shenai, Partner, International Trade Investment and Market Access, WilmerHale; former Trade Counsel, House Committee on Ways and MeansDawn Shackleford, President at Looking Glass Trade, LLC; former Executive Director for Trade Agreements Policy & Negotiations, Department of Commerce; former Assistant USTR for WTO & Multilateral Affairs

In this week’s episode, our trade insiders start with the EU’s import quotas on automobiles from China and a “non-paper” by France and Germany that would expand the EU’s ability to take trade actions. The panel weighs whether Europe is acting in its own interest rather than as a concession to the United States, and whether this is the end of the road for China or, as Churchill once put it, “the end of the beginning.” A spirited debate follows over the long-awaited excess capacity reports and whether 301 tariffs on the other 15 economies could create cover for partners or drive Asian countries back toward China. The insiders then turn to updating the U.S. trade arsenal through a bipartisan commission by Congress and whether the EU’s anti-coercion instrument will ever be operationalized. Finally,we discuss reports that Secretary Lutnick is complicating negotiations with Mexico over Section 232 tariffs on steel and autos, after the U.S. opened that door in the discussions with Canada that ultimately broke down; and what part does the Senate race in Ohio and the political ambitions of the Vice President come into play when talking steel and auto tariffs?Featured Speakers:Wendy Cutler, Senior Vice President, Asia Society Policy Institute; former Acting Deputy U.S. Trade RepresentativeKate Kalutkiewicz, Senior Managing Director, McLarty Associates; former Special Assistant to the President and Senior Director for International Trade, National Economic Council, in the first Trump AdministrationStephen Vaughn, Partner, International Trade, King & Spalding LLP; former General Counsel, Office of the United States Trade Representative under first Trump Administration Moderator: Joe Damond, Non-resident Senior Associate at Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in their Southeast Asia program; former Deputy Assistant USTR for Asia