South Florida Mortgage Report

Forget the rate hike. Oil is driving the boat.The Fed raised rates Wednesday for the first time in three years. Twelve to nothing, not one dissent. It is the biggest thing they have done since 2023, and it is not the reason your rate is where it is.Rates don't wait for the Fed. The futures market had this hike at 90% two weeks ago, and the market prices in what it expects long before the announcement.So Craig Garcia and Bill Mei spend this one on the thing that actually has the wheel.A referral partner called Craig this week with the same question his wife had asked him: what happened to drill baby drill? We are producing more oil than at any point in our history. We are a net exporter. So why is gas still going up?The answer is a kid with a lemonade stand — the same kid from the Treasury episode in August, back with a different problem.There are twenty lemonade stands on the block. Nineteen buy lemons at the store. One kid has a lemon tree in the backyard. That's America. Then the road to the lemon warehouse washes out and store lemons go from a dollar to four dollars.His lemons didn't change. His price did. Because the kid three doors down just knocked on the door and offered him four bucks a lemon.Nothing changed in the backyard. Nothing changed in the tree. He's nine years old and he's not stupid.Then the number that ends the argument without ever taking a side on it. About 21 million barrels a day used to move through the Strait of Hormuz before the war — a fifth of everything the world burns, a quarter of all the oil that ever touches a boat. Roughly 13 million barrels a day that used to show up now don't.The United States, drilling harder than at any point in its history, pumps 13.8 million barrels a day.The hole in the world is the size of America.Also in this one: why the bond market hit a 19-year high on Wednesday and gave it all back by Thursday, why somebody lending money out for thirty years wants a Fed that raises rates rather than one that won't, and why oil is the match while the rate hike is the firewall. Warsh can't stop oil from spiking. He can stop every other business in town from using that spike as an excuse.Plus the good news nobody covered. The conforming loan limit moved early again. There is about twelve thousand dollars more available before a loan becomes a jumbo, and it is available now.Forget the rate hike. Oil is driving the boat.**CHAPTERS**0:00 Two sentences about who is actually in charge0:16 Welcome back, and a big week0:34 Amendment 3 with Marty Kiar and Chip LaMarca1:31 The Fed hikes a quarter point, twelve to nothing1:41 So what did mortgage rates do? Basically nothing.1:51 Rates don't wait for the Fed2:12 The part that should have hurt — 16 of 18 see another hike2:33 A 19-year high Wednesday, all of it back by Thursday2:50 The bond market isn't afraid of a Fed that raises rates3:24 "What happened to drill baby drill?"4:13 The kid with the lemon tree5:06 The road to the warehouse washes out5:17 His lemons didn't change. His price did.6:09 How bad is the road? The Strait of Hormuz.6:33 The hole in the world is the size of America6:53 "So even if we doubled—" We can't double.7:25 If he can't touch oil, what's the point of a hike?7:28 Oil is the match. The rate hike is the firewall.9:07 One mandate is already done9:30 The conforming loan limit moved early10:47 "It was stuck at $417,000 for years"11:31 Three percent down on an $871,000 house12:03 Forget the rate hike — it's the oilCapital Partners Mortgage Services, NMLS #2332376. Equal Housing Opportunity.NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.orgThis is general information, not a commitment to lend or an offer of credit. Loan approval is subject to underwriting and program eligibility. Market commentary reflects conditions as of September 18, 2026 and changes daily. Loan limit availability varies by investor and program.

On November 2, the appraisal report changes shape for the first time in over fifteen years. UAD 3.6 — the Uniform Appraisal Dataset behind the redesigned URAR — does not change how your home gets valued. It changes how it gets written up.Chris Aumente has been appraising since 1987 and has run his own firm in Palm Beach County since 1995. He's also building his first sample reports on the new form right now, so he isn't describing it. He's doing it.**Both handouts from this session, plus the longer write-up:**https://www.cp-mtg.com/uad-3-6-new-appraisal-report/**WHAT CHANGES**• It is not a new way to value property. Chris said that four times, because it's what people get wrong. The valuation logic is untouched. The reporting is what changed.• Free-text comments become fixed data fields. "Updated," "renovated" and "remodeled" go away. His reason: renovated to one person is a new faucet and fresh paint. To another it's down to the studs.• Components get rated one to six individually — interior, exterior, and the pieces inside — instead of one grade for the whole house.• One dynamic web-based report replaces five forms: single-family, condo, co-op, vacant land, manufactured. It morphs to the property, so "order me a 1073" stops being a sentence.• Two new categories of field: disaster mitigation and green features. Hurricane straps, shutters, impact windows, solar and whether it's owned or leased — with photos, not a note.**THE NUMBERS**• 6 pages of analysis becomes 14 to 22.• November 2, 2026, mandated by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.• Report-writing goes from 2-3 hours to 5-8, on his estimate.• A residential appraisal runs about $500 today, $350 to $550 across the market. What he hears appraisers discussing for the new report is $750 to $1,000 — his read on his industry, not a quote and not our fee schedule.• The average US appraiser is 54 to 57 years old.**WHAT A LISTING AGENT CAN DO NOW**• Fix the MLS listing. If it's a condo it says condo. If it's manufactured it says manufactured.• Stop writing "renovated." Write new appliances, new flooring, new countertops, and when.• Pull the permits and the certificates of occupancy before anyone asks.• Give the appraiser the four-point, not the home inspection. The four-point has the hurricane-strap photos and saves him the attic. The home inspection tells him about the pipe he didn't see and now has to report.• Bring the survey and the floor plan. A survey matching the building as it stands today is genuinely useful. One showing 1,000 square feet on a 4,000 square foot house is not.• Call your past clients once a year. "Hey, I'm updating our property records." Memories fade — the bathroom someone thinks they did two years ago was eight.**ONE CAVEAT, FROM THE RECORDING**Big changes have been pushed before when the industry wasn't ready, and Chris's own software can't import a sketch yet. Everything here is built on November 2 because that's the mandated date today. If it moves, we'll tell you.**Got a file you're not sure about?** Send us the real numbers and we'll tell you honestly what this does to your timeline.(954) 271-2024 · cp-mtg.comCapital Partners Mortgage Services, LLC · NMLS #2332376 · Craig Garcia, NMLS #653593 · Equal Housing Opportunity · NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.orgEducational only; not legal, tax or appraisal advice and not a commitment to lend. Page counts, timing and fee figures are as stated by our guest on September 17, 2026 and are his own. The November 2, 2026 date is set by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and is subject to change. Chris Aumente is an independent appraiser, not affiliated with CPMS; his opinions are his own and not endorsements by CPMS. Appraisers independently determine scope of work and the opinion of value; CPMS does not attempt to influence an appraiser's value conclusion. All loans subject to credit, property, appraisal and program approval.

On November 3, Florida votes on Amendment 3. It would raise the homestead exemption by $200,000 over two years — and it needs 60% to pass.We got the two people best placed to explain it in the same room. Marty Kiar, the Broward County Property Appraiser, who ran the amendment against the actual 2025 tax roll. And State Representative Chip LaMarca, who voted to put it on your ballot.Marty has deliberately taken no public position, and his reason is worth the whole episode:"If I took a public position, the only people that would listen to me are the people that agree with me. And the people that don't agree with me would not listen to that information."So he brought data instead. Chip voted yes — and then told us the bill is not how he would have written it.Marty Kiar's full fiscal impact study, every city in Broward:https://www.cp-mtg.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/BROWARD-COUNTY-Fiscal-Impacts-for-Proposed-Constitutional-Amendment-003.pdfCHAPTERS0:00 The 4% problem — what Amendment 3 costs Tamarac0:38 Intro1:56 The September 18 deadline, and what to bring7:34 "I hope they repeal that stupid law" — why your bill went up when your value went down9:47 What condo values actually did in 202612:52 How we got here: one tweet, and a $55 billion question16:56 The numbers — $150,000, then $250,00018:41 Chip LaMarca joins22:26 Why the Property Appraiser won't take a position28:05 Chip: yes or no on Amendment 330:30 Six years of city budgets — up 53% to 108%37:32 Why 60% is such a high bar39:20 The implementing bill that doesn't exist yet45:17 The Realtors are for it. The sheriffs are against it.55:27 If it passes, what gets cut first1:03:21 The Tamarac math, in full1:07:16 Chip alone — why this bill survived, and what comes next1:16:02 The judge threw out the ballot titleALSO IN THIS EPISODEThe September 18 deadline to challenge your assessment, and exactly what to bringWhy your tax bill can go up in a year your market value went down — and why the Property Appraiser calls that law "stupid"What condo values actually did on the 2026 roll: newer luxury buildings up, older four-story-plus buildings down, and why Surfside-law reserve funding is the reasonHow this started — one tweet, a governor's retweet, and a study finding that eliminating all property taxes would pull $55–60 billion out of local government and need a 12–15% sales taxWhy 70% of Floridians said no to that, and how the conversation narrowed to homestead onlyWhy 60% is such a high bar: a $25,000 exemption failed at 58% in 2018, and a cost-of-living tweak passed at 61% in 2022What's missing — there's no implementing bill yet, and Marty explains why that worries himWhy the Realtors are for it and the sheriffs are against itThe judge who threw out the ballot title, and Chip's answer on whether it oversold the amendmentLINKSAmendment 3 bill text: https://www.flsenate.gov/Session/Bill/2026F/1F/?Tab=BillTextBroward County Property Appraiser: https://bcpa.netRep. Chip LaMarca: https://www.chiplamarca.com/Got a scenario you want a straight answer on? Send us the real numbers and we'll tell you honestly what this does and doesn't do to your deal.Call (954) 271-2024 · [email protected] · cp-mtg.comThe South Florida Mortgage Report — Craig A. Garcia, President of Capital Partners Mortgage Services, and Bill Mei.Capital Partners Mortgage Services, LLC · NMLS #2332376 · Equal Housing OpportunityNMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.orgThis is educational commentary and is not tax, legal or financial advice, and is not a commitment to lend. Figures cited are as stated by our guests on September 14, 2026 and are their own; property tax outcomes depend on your specific property, exemptions and local millage rates. The fiscal impact study linked above is the work of the Broward County Property Appraiser's office. Opinions expressed by guests are their own.

Broward County homeowners: the deadline is Friday, September 18, 2026.If you think your property is assessed too high — or you're not getting an exemption you're entitled to — you have until Friday to start the process. After that, Marty Kiar is barred by statute from touching your property for this tax year, and you're stuck with the November bill.Marty Kiar is the Broward County Property Appraiser. In this clip he explains exactly what to do, and he makes one point worth hearing twice: **don't wait until Friday.** "It's actually way better to call me today than on Friday. Truthfully on Friday, if people call, we'll probably say you probably want to file a petition, because we're working on all these other ones."**What to do, in order:**1. **Go to bcpa.net and pull up your TRIM notice.** It came in the mail last month. It is not a bill — it's your Truth in Millage notice, and it shows what your property was valued at, every exemption you're getting, and what you're being asked to pay this year.2. **Check the value, and check the exemptions.** There are more exemptions than most people realize, and missing one costs real money.3. **If something looks wrong, call or email the Property Appraiser's office before Friday.** They will go through the property with you. Marty's own words: he can lower it, he can't raise it.4. **Or file a petition with the Value Adjustment Board — $25.** No lawyer required. Filing does two things: it lets his office keep working on your property after the 18th, and if they still can't help, it gets you in front of an independent special magistrate.Broward County Property Appraiser Site: https://bcpa.net/homepage.aspBCPA VAB Appeals Process: https://bcpa.net/value.asp**Bring evidence, not opinion.** He gives a real example in the clip — an owner sent in insurance paperwork and interior photos showing water damage and a dilapidated condition. That dropped the market value below the assessed value, which dropped the tax bill. Documents move the number. "My neighbor pays less" does not.**This is Broward County.** Florida's petition deadline is set per county off the date the TRIM notices went out, so if you're in Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Martin or St. Lucie, check your own county's property appraiser for your date.**The full conversation** — Marty Kiar and State Representative Chip LaMarca on Amendment 3, what it saves the average Broward homeowner, and what it costs your city — is coming this week.*The South Florida Mortgage Report — Craig A. Garcia, President of Capital Partners Mortgage Services, and Bill Mei.*Capital Partners Mortgage Services, NMLS #2332376. Equal Housing Opportunity. NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.orgThis is general information, not tax, legal or financial advice, and not a commitment to lend. Property tax deadlines, procedures and fees are set by Florida statute and by each county — confirm yours with your county Property Appraiser.**Subscribe for weekly market updates** on rates, inflation, jobs reports, and what actually moves mortgage pricing. 📍South Florida focus — national relevance. #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #RealEstate #Fed #FannieMae #FreddieMac #MBS #Refinance #HomeBuying #SouthFloridaRealEstate 🎧 LISTEN & SUBSCRIBE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MORTGAGE REPORT 🔁 YouTube playlist (all episodes): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCOa_zSrotiecbiomGKhTzASCBToYQUea 📱 Subscribe & follow on your favorite platform: • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/south-florida-mortgage-report/id1834181574 • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5QxG2PzPd3W9pJFqQnLAPS?si=5a667fbd60a44ce9 📌 HELPFUL LINKS 📩 Housing Newsletter: Stay informed with curated mortgage and housing insights delivered straight to your inbox: https://housingnewsletters.com/craiggarcia ✅ Pre-Approvals 24/7: Get started anytime: ⁠ Option 1⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/rhx8h ⁠Option 2⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/w2o7v

Recorded Friday morning, while the long end was better. It didn't hold — the 10-year closed at 4.969, giving the rally back and finishing a shade above Thursday. Which, if anything, is the episode's point.On Wednesday the Treasury Secretary went to buy back bonds. The program was supposed to be four billion dollars. He bought six, and told the market not to bet against the house.Rates went up.Friday morning the inflation report came in hot on the one number people watch, and the long end of the bond market — the part your mortgage is actually priced off of — got better. Nobody spent a dollar to make that happen.Craig and Bill work through why those two things aren't a contradiction, and what it means for the Fed meeting on Wednesday.In this episode:What the inflation report actually said — one number beat forecast, by one tenth, and annual core went downWhy the Fed doesn't set your mortgage rate, and what it costs people who think it doesThe two interest rate markets, and the different question each one is askingWhy a 90% chance of a rate hike made long-term rates better, not worseThe $6 billion buyback, and the poker table that explains why it didn't move anythingWhere oil fits — and why it's not a forecast for inflation, it is inflationThree weeks, three times: the loudest thing Washington did, and what rates did insteadWhy the weekly rate survey you're reading is behind the marketThree takeaways, one for each of you:Own a home? This is the one that costs money this week. If the Fed hikes Wednesday, HELOCs, credit cards, car notes and business lines move almost immediately — they follow the short end. If you're carrying twenty thousand on a HELOC, Wednesday's meeting matters more to you than the 30-year does. Look at that before you look at a refinance.Buying? Three weeks running, the government did the loudest thing available and rates did something else. Waiting for Washington to fix your payment is not a plan. If a deal works today, it works today.Agent? When a client forwards you the hot inflation headline: that number is about the Fed, and the Fed doesn't set their mortgage rate. Long-term rates actually improved the morning it came out. Then show them what their payment did, in dollars.Send us the scenario and we'll run the payment — same day, most of the time.The South Florida Mortgage Report — Craig A. Garcia, President of Capital Partners Mortgage Services, and Bill Mei.Capital Partners Mortgage Services, NMLS #2332376. Equal Housing Opportunity.NMLS Consumer Access: www.nmlsconsumeraccess.orgThis is general information, not a commitment to lend or an offer of credit. Loan approval is subject to underwriting and program eligibility. Market commentary reflects conditions as of September 11, 2026 and changes daily.**Subscribe for weekly market updates** on rates, inflation, jobs reports, and what actually moves mortgage pricing. 📍South Florida focus — national relevance. #MortgageRates #HousingMarket #RealEstate #Fed #FannieMae #FreddieMac #MBS #Refinance #HomeBuying #SouthFloridaRealEstate 🎧 LISTEN & SUBSCRIBE TO THE SOUTH FLORIDA MORTGAGE REPORT 🔁 YouTube playlist (all episodes): https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLCOa_zSrotiecbiomGKhTzASCBToYQUea 📱 Subscribe & follow on your favorite platform: • Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/south-florida-mortgage-report/id1834181574 • Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/5QxG2PzPd3W9pJFqQnLAPS?si=5a667fbd60a44ce9 📌 HELPFUL LINKS 📩 Housing Newsletter: Stay informed with curated mortgage and housing insights delivered straight to your inbox: https://housingnewsletters.com/craiggarcia ✅ Pre-Approvals 24/7: Get started anytime: ⁠ Option 1⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/rhx8h ⁠Option 2⁠ https://loancenter.cp-mtg.com/dr/c/w2o7v