trading places

In this emergency Valuation Corner, Aman Verjee breaks down Anthropic's S-1, the filing that makes it the fastest-growing company at scale of all time. He starts with the 94 pages of risk factors, including models that have shown blackmail-like behavior and risks so large the company says the insurance industry may not have the capacity to cover them.Aman then walks through who made money: angels Jaan Tallinn, Dustin Moskovitz and Eric Schmidt with a 300X return, the FTX stake sold in 2024 for $1.3B that would be worth about $40B today, Spark, Menlo and Lightspeed, and Amazon and Alphabet, whose combined $31B is now worth about $430B. On the financials, he shows how to back into Q3 revenue of $16.8B from the trailing-12-month figure in the footnotes, why $72B of the $81B first-half net loss is a non-cash accounting charge, and how Anthropic reached an operating profit and about $3.9B in operating cash flow in Q2. He closes with the concerns: growth flattening as OpenAI closes the gap, 25% of revenue from five customers, and roughly $500B in compute commitments to Google, Amazon, Broadcom and the neoclouds that Anthropic has to pay even if demand falls short.00:00 Anthropic's S-1: The Fastest-Growing Company at Scale Ever[ risk factors ]00:26 94 Pages of Risk Factors: Blackmail and Existential Risk01:04 Why Anthropic Says No Insurer Can Cover It[ who made money ]01:37 The Angels Behind Anthropic: A 300X Return02:00 FTX's $40 Billion Miss: One of the Worst Trades Ever?02:58 Spark, Menlo and Lightspeed's Firm-Returning Positions03:15 Amazon and Alphabet: The Biggest Venture Wins of All Time?[ the financials ]03:30 Anthropic's Revenue: $4.7B to $11.6B in One Quarter04:14 Where to Find Anthropic's Q3 Revenue in the S-1: $16.8B05:25 How to Forecast a 16X Growth Business06:13 The $81B Net Loss, Explained06:42 Operating Profit, $137B in Cash and Positive Cash Flow[ the concerns ]08:50 Is Anthropic's Growth Slowing as OpenAI Catches Up?10:15 12,000 Enterprise Customers and Who the Top Five Might Be11:45 The Biggest Risk: $500B in Compute Commitments12:29 Why Anthropic Can't Walk Away From Its Compute Deals14:08 Can Amazon and Google Give Anthropic a Break?Trading Places is the world's worst podcast about VC secondaries, private markets and high-growth technology companies. Subsequently, it’s the only podcast about VC secondaries. Subscribe for weekly coverage of private-company valuations, tender offers, secondary transactions, IPOs and venture capital liquidity.[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ][ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Do your own research.#Anthropic #AnthropicIPO #tradingplacespodcast #VentureCapital #IPO

In this emergency Valuation Corner, Aman Verjee breaks down SpaceX's Q3 earnings call. Revenue came in at $14.6B against a $12.8B estimate, SpaceX posted its first profitable quarter, and Elon Musk said annual recurring revenue could reach $500B to $1T by the end of 2027, two years ahead of the guidance he gave on the IPO roadshow. Aman walks through all three segments: space at $1.8B, Starlink at $5.2B (up 69% year over year) and the super intelligence segment at $7.6B, driven by compute contracts with Google and Anthropic and a partial quarter of Cursor. He covers the capex payback period, which management says is under 12 months, and runs the math on 13 gigawatts of compute at $30 to $50 per watt. Then he makes the case for a SpaceX-Tesla merger: the capital needed for a $400B compute buildout, Tesla's balance sheet and engineering talent, and why the robots and flying cars a Mars mission needs point to Tesla. He also explains why Elon called the merger process "kabuki," gives his odds of a deal by mid-2027 and guesses the opening bid.00:00 SpaceX Q3 Earnings Breakdown[ spacex q3 earnings ]02:03 SpaceX Beats Estimates: $14.6B Revenue02:40 SpaceX's Three Business Segments: Space, Starlink and Super Intelligence06:20 The Key to SpaceX's AI Spending: CapEx Payback07:33 SpaceX's Path to $500B in Revenue12:07 Is SpaceX Worth Its $2 Trillion Valuation?[ spacex x tesla merger ]13:00 Could SpaceX and Tesla Merge in 2027?15:00 The Financial Case for Combining SpaceX and Tesla16:56 How Tesla Could Help Elon Musk Get to Mars20:03 Elon Musk Responds to Merger Speculation and the "Kabuki" Process22:26 Aman's 2027 Merger Prediction: Could Tesla Get a $420 Offer?Trading Places is the world's worst podcast about VC secondaries, private markets and high-growth technology companies. Subsequently, it’s the only podcast about VC secondaries. Subscribe for weekly coverage of private-company valuations, tender offers, secondary transactions, IPOs and venture capital liquidity.[ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. We may hold positions in companies discussed, including SpaceX. Do your own research. #SpaceX #Tesla #tradingplacespodcast #VentureCapital #spacexearnings

$518B in compute commitments and 80 pages of risk factorsThese are just some of the surprising numbers from Anthropic’s leaked S1. In this episode of Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break it all down. Will their $2T IPO still happen before Thanksgiving? Plus, the 10-year Treasury broke 5% for the first time in nearly 20 years — what that means for the IPO market. They also cover the debt behind the AI data center boom, the AI safety incidents raising product liability questions, and what a Senate flip could mean for AI and crypto policy. Plus: Oura pulls its IPO, AMD’s $8.2B acquisition of World Labs and ElevenLabs doubling to $22B in an employee tender. Then, Dave discusses secondary market trends with Sam Lawson, co-founder and managing partner of Flywheel Capital. In Valuation Corner, Aman breaks down the >$20B nuclear startup industry. He covers how Aalo Atomics compares to its competitors and why nuclear demand is booming. 00:46 - [ tech and vc news ]interest rates reach 20-year high05:24 - surprising numbers from Anthropic S1 leak12:14 - rising costs of AI data center buildout18:03 - soaring AI safety concerns22:13 - how midterms will impact AI27:53 - Oura pulls $2.2B IPO32:29 - chipmaker AMD $8.2B World Labs acquisition34:53 - ElevenLabs doubles valuation to $22B40:06 - [ intvw: Sam Lawson, Managing Partner @ Flywheel ]48:56 - reasons for starting Flywheel1:00:37 - state of the venture secondary market1:00:52 - secret stallions1:05:55 - VC market trends and predictions1:17:59 - [ valuation corner: nuclear startup Aalo @ $3B ]nuclear startup industry valued at over $20B1:22:04 - forces driving nuclear demand1:24:44 - will the nuclear startup boom stick?#VentureCapital #Anthropic #AISafety #Secondaries #NuclearEnergy

In this episode of Trading Places, Dave McClure and Aman Verjee break down the week's biggest stories in tech and venture. First, the Fed's first rate hike under new chair Warsh and what >$90 oil could mean for the midterms. Then they get into Anthropic moving its IPO to November, OpenAI's potential $1.2 trillion pre-IPO round, and Aman's theory on the real reason AI giants are calling for regulation. They also cover Nscale's neocloud IPO, the growth of European AI with Mistral and Cohere, and Meta's Muse agent passing ChatGPT in App Store downloads. Dave then sits down with Dan Gray, research lead at Odin. Dan breaks down all current trends in venture, and provides a compelling bear case on upcoming AI IPOs. In Valuation Corner, Aman breaks down autonomous defense tech company Shield AI's reported $20B raise: how it compares to Anduril and Saronic, what its founders bring, and why investing in defense is trending right now. 1:06 - [ tech and vc news ]3:29 - Fed rates jump to 4%, gas @ $4.50/gal8:16 - Anthropic delays IPO; OpenAI raising @ $1.2T12:00 - Does AI need govt regulation?16:54 - Nscale files for IPO20:45 - EU AI rising: Mistral @ $24B, Cohere @ $20B24:07 - Gemini joins AI hacker club25:33 - Meta launches AI agent Muse; Instinct raising @ $10B33:47 - [ intvw: Dan Gray, research lead, Odin ]39:48 - Venture has eaten the IPO41:19 - Shifting VC strategies58:45 - How AI could upend VC industry1:13:39 - Contrarian take on upcoming AI IPOs1:13:21 - [ valuation corner: Shield AI seeks $20B ]1:17:08 - Impressive founding brothers1:18:30 - Why VC defense investment is growing1:22:18 - Breaking down world-wide defense budgetsTrading Places is the world's worst podcast about VC secondaries, private markets and high-growth technology companies. Subscribe for weekly coverage of private-company valuations, tender offers, secondary transactions, IPOs and venture capital liquidity.[ links ] [ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ][ dan gray = https://www.linkedin.com/in/dangjr/ | https://x.com/credistick ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ] Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. We may hold positions in companies discussed. Do your own research. #ShieldAI #DefenseTech #VentureCapital #Anthropic #PrivateMarkets

Dario Amodei says the industry needs to "pace the frontier." Sam Altman and Elon agreed. Dave and Aman aren't buying the official story. They break down why slowing down might be good for business, and why they would welcome government regulation.The macro backdrop compounds things. Oil's back over $100, the 10-year just touched 5% for the first time since 2023, and the national deficit keeps rising past $40 trillion. Dave and Aman debate whether Washington will ever get serious about the debt, or whether AI-driven growth is the only way out.Additionally: Oura is reportedly eyeing a $16B IPO, a wave of AI mega-rounds landed: Cognition at $48B, Crusoe at $30B, Shield AI at $20B. And corporate tender offers are on pace to hit 600 deals this year as companies stay private longer and look for new ways to give employees liquidity.Plus: a Valuation Corner deep-dive on Harvey AI, the legal-tech company that just raised at $15.5B. Aman breaks down Harvey's founding story, and discusses how they might protect themselves from ruin against the AI giants.[ Tech & VC News ]03:07 ⁠state of the economy: oil, interest rates, and inflation all up06:25 importance of reducing the deficit08:13 ⁠AI leaders hit the brakes20:27 ⁠why AI giants want to be regulated25:22 upcoming Oura IPO28:34 ⁠mega-round raises for a host of AI companies38:09⁠ ⁠tender offer boom43:30 [ Valuation Corner: Harvey AI @ $15.5B ]45:42 ⁠founder stories47:43 ⁠breaking down the legal AI ecosystem50:07 ⁠⁠Harvey vs AI giants57:30 ⁠⁠tribute to a legend: Bill Draper[ links ][ invest = https://practicalvc.com ] [ trading places socials = www.linktr.ee/tradingplacespod ] [ aman verjee = https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-verjee | https://x.com/amanverjee ] [ dave mcclure = https://www.linkedin.com/in/davemcclure | https://x.com/davemcclure ]Thank you for watching!#amanverjee #VentureCapital #PrivateMarkets #davemcclure #bigbubbletrouble