Barclays Brief

Food security is emerging as a growing concern. Extreme weather and geopolitical disruption are putting pressure on global food supplies, household budgets and the wider economy.In this episode of the Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey speaks with Maggie O’Neal, Global Head of Sustainable Investing, Thematic and Public Policy Research, about rising food security risks and the impact of food inflation. Together they examine why higher food prices can hit emerging markets harder, where food accounts for a larger share of household budgets.The discussion also explores how policy and technologies, from precision irrigation to new crop varieties, could strengthen food supplies. For consumers, policymakers and investors, the challenge is not just managing disruption but preparing for it.This episode was recorded in London at 10:30am GMT on Monday 9 November.Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​• The US consumer won't quit​• UK Budget: What markets may be missing• Has the protein boom peaked?Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​• Food security: what to watch through year-end• Investing in resilient food systems: food security solutions• The fertiliser and weather risk nexus• Adaptation in Action: A Global Universe of Solution Providers• Strategic autonomy: food security in focus• This El Niño looks set to break records, but at what cost?Important Content DisclosuresThis content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.

Semiconductors sit at the heart of the AI revolution, but the global supply chains behind them are under growing pressure. As investment in AI accelerates, highly concentrated capabilities across advanced manufacturing and critical materials are creating strategic chokepoints, while geopolitical pressures are reshaping how these global supply chains must operate.Recorded at the Barclays Asia Forum, host Patrick Coffey is joined by Chris Miller, New York Times bestselling author of Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology, to explore the vulnerabilities within the semiconductor ecosystem, the challenge of national semiconductor self-sufficiency and why the politicisation of AI may just be getting started.Looking ahead, they consider the next wave of AI adoption, from accelerating research and development in biotechnology and pharmaceuticals to the rise of physical AI. They also examine what this changing landscape means for business leaders, including how boards shouldn’t underestimate geopolitical shifts.Read more on the topic:10 things you need to know about humanoid robotsRobots roll out, economies rewireAI gets physical: Innovation meets opportunityTalent and trade: The new battlegrounds in AIListeners can also explore the topic further in previous Barclays Brief episodes:Pacing the Frontier: What’s next for AI?AI goes economy-wideRise of the humanoid robotsImportant Content DisclosuresImportant non-Research content disclosuresThis content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.​

As investors reassess the AI trade, attention is shifting towards how the next phase of the cycle could play out across Asia. The region remains central to global AI investment, but changing sentiment is creating a more complex mix of opportunities and risks.Recorded at the Barclays Asia Forum in Singapore, host Patrick Coffey was joined by JF Mastrangelo, Head of Markets, APAC, to discuss distinct investment cases across the region. They explore how Korea and Taiwan offer different forms of exposure to the AI investment cycle, and how the scale of the semiconductor sector can extend its effects into their wider economies. They also highlight how India’s domestic growth and banking sector could provide diversification beyond the AI infrastructure trade.The conversation also covers China’s strength in exports, including green technology and AI-related products, and Japan’s combination of domestic growth and exposure to AI manufacturing.For investors, the discussion highlights the importance of assessing Asia market by market, while remaining mindful of differences in valuation, volatility and sensitivity to the AI cycle.Clients can read more on Barclays Live:Thinking Macro: SVB Redux?Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company: Confidence growingPositioning for AI Disruption: The Next Phase of Enterprise AdoptionAI in China: From AI investment to adoptionListeners can also explore the topic further:Trump-Xi: Stability without resolutionPacing the Frontier: What’s next for AI?Opportunities in Asian Equities Japan: Why the world is watching Important Content DisclosuresImportant non-Research Content Disclosures

The US consumer has proved to be more resilient than expected, supported by a constructive employment backdrop, income growth and rising household wealth. But beneath that aggregate strength, behaviour is shifting. Consumers are becoming more selective, and their ability to absorb further inflation is becoming increasingly divided by income.In this episode of the Barclays Brief, host Ronnie Wexler speaks with Priya Ohri-Gupta, Head of US High Grade Research and US Consumer Credit Research Analyst, about the state of US consumer resilience and why it is increasingly uneven. They explore the emergence of a two-speed consumer economy, with higher-income households supported by wealth creation while lower-income consumers face greater pressure on their ability to spend. At the same time, consumers across the board are becoming more deliberate about where their money goes, seeking value and trading down.Ronnie Wexler and Priya Ohri-Gupta also consider the signals that could point to weakening demand, and how inflationary pressures currently being absorbed by retailers could test resilience into 2027.As US consumers become more selective, investors may need to follow suit. With the important holiday spending period approaching, Ohri-Gupta considers the characteristics that could differentiate consumer and retail businesses as spending patterns evolve.Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​• Negative headlines, resilient markets• US Rates: Higher for longer • Do high gas prices change how Americans buy cars? Clients can read more on Barclays Live:​• State of the US consumer: The consumer who won't quitImportant Content DisclosuresThis content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.

Ahead of the UK Autumn Budget, the consensus view is that higher borrowing costs and a weaker fiscal backdrop have left the Chancellor of the Exchequer with little room to manoeuvre. But what if markets are focusing on the wrong part of the story?In this episode of the Barclays Brief, host Patrick Coffey sits down with Jack Meaning, Chief UK Economist at Barclays, to examine why expectations of a sharp squeeze of the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom may be overstated. While higher gilt yields have dominated the debate, stronger nominal earnings and tax receipts could leave the Chancellor in a more resilient position than many investors assume, at least for now.The conversation explores the outlook for inflation, interest rates and the UK Budget, alongside signs of stronger business investment, the potential productivity benefits of AI and why the UK may be emerging as a relative source of stability in Europe.For investors, businesses and households alike, the key question is whether the prevailing narrative on the UK has become too negative and what that could mean for growth, markets and policy in the months ahead.This episode was recorded on Wednesday 7 October at 10:30am British Summer Time.Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​• Brexit, Burnham and Britain's next decade• French bonds: OAT of control• Do debt managers or markets set the price of long bonds?Listeners can hear more related to this topic:​• Headwinds on the horizon• The direct fiscal effects of quantitative easing and tightening• UK Rates Strategy: Chancellor Healey meets the bond market: ‘let sleeping dogs lie’ Important Content DisclosuresThis content is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Views expressed are those of the speakers and may not reflect those of the firm. Any forward-looking statements are based on current assumptions and subject to risks and uncertainties.