Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

Rory Johnston is a Toronto-based oil market researcher, the founder of Commodity Context, a lecturer at the University of Toronto's Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy, as well as a Fellow with both the Canadian Global Affairs Institute and the Payne Institute for Public Policy at the Colorado School of Mines. Prior to founding Commodity Context, Rory led commodity economics research at Scotiabank. In this podcast, we discuss:  $100 Brent and Historic Backwardation The Global Refined Product Crisis Hormuz "Shuttle Trade" and War Insurance Costs The Red Sea Chokepoint and Houthi Threat Russian Refinery Attacks and Fuel Export Bans China's Import Cuts and Hidden SPR Release China's Potential Winter Refining Bailout US Midterm Dilemmas and Export Ban Risks India's LPG Crisis and Offshore SPR Deals US Equity in Venezuela and Heavy Crude Spreads Canada's Westward Pipeline Push

David is the author of the blog, David Woo Unbound. Before that, he was Head of Global Rates, FX and EM Fixed Income Strategy & Economics Research at BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research. In that role, he was responsible for the bank's views and forecasts for developed and emerging sovereign bond yields and exchange rates. He was earlier at Barclays Capital, Citigroup and the IMF. David has a Ph.D. in economics from Columbia University. In this podcast we discuss: Why news media has become more politicised The impact of globalization on inequality What explains countries with high COVID cases Why Trump was right on vaccine vs COVID elimination COVID to remain a factor in coming years Return to stagflation Mnuchin under-rated as Treasury Secretary, Yellen over-rated Supply-side policies/inequality under Trump The fundamental shifts in US-China relations China tech policy is what Biden wishes he could do Book that influenced David: Predictioneer (de Mesquita)

In this solo episode, Bilal flips the script to pull back the curtain on his personal research workflow, addressing a surge of questions from peers on how to effectively apply AI to financial market analysis using six core principles. Some key points include: Machines Speaking Human The "CLEAR" Prompting Framework Gold-Standard Human Evaluation Converting Prompts to "Skills" Custom Session Memory & Feedback Loops Delegating to "Co-Work" Agents Reliable Market Analysis via RAG

Dominique Dwor-Frecaut is the Chief US economist and macro strategist for Macro Hive and is based in Los Angeles. Before that, she worked at various hedge funds, including Bridgewater. Prior to the buy side, she worked at the New York Fed, IMF, and the World Bank. She holds a PhD in Economics from the London School of Economics. In this podcast, we discuss: The "Low-Hire, Low-Fire" Labour Puzzle The Imported AI Capex Illusion Chips as the New Oil Supply Shock The K-Shaped Consumer & GFC-Level Delinquency The Fragile Savings Rate Cushion The Return of FOMC Dissension The Waller Swing Vote & the 2026 Rate Path The 2027 AI De-escalation Surprise

Jon Turek is the founder and CEO of JST Advisors, a hedge fund advisory service that publishes a weekly research note with global macro trade ideas. JST Advisors works closely with hedge funds on developing asymmetric macro trade ideas and market themes. Outside of JST Advisors, Jon worked as a portfolio manager at Brevan Howard and as an analyst at Moore Capital. In this podcast, we discuss: The Substack Divide of Equities vs. Macro The Buy-Side Paradox of PM Asymmetry and Pod Reality The "Owl" Fed and Political Optimisation over Conviction The Trillion-Dollar AI Fiscal Program The Death of the 2010s Savings Glut Treasury Buybacks and "Whack-A-Mole" Markets Europe's Impending China Tariff Shock The Simmering Geopolitical In-Between for Oil