Eurizon SLJ Capital

Rising oil prices and bond yields are bringing the balance between inflation and growth into sharper focus. In this week’s episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones and Neil Staines of Eurizon SLJ Capital discuss the implications for global markets and the economic calendar ahead. In the UK, higher energy costs and gilt yields are adding pressure ahead of the 28 October Budget. The discussion considers the economy’s underlying fragility and the outlook for interest rates, wi...

Oil prices, inflation risks and a more hawkish global policy backdrop are reshaping the outlook for central banks and financial conditions. Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the Bank of England’s decision to hold rates at 3.75%, alongside changes to quantitative tightening and three MPC votes for an immediate 25bp hike. With Governor Bailey signalling that persistent oil prices or Middle East tensions could influence the November outlook, they assess why market pricing for around 100bp of U...

Energy prices are reshaping the global inflation and interest-rate outlook, with oil and natural gas feeding through to bond markets and central-bank expectations. Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the week ahead, beginning in the UK, where July GDP surprised to the upside. Neil remains cautious about extrapolating the rebound, however, as renewed rises in oil and, importantly for Europe, natural gas tighten financial conditions and contribute to higher gilt yields. Attention turns to UK em...

Global yield curves remain at the centre of the macro debate as markets weigh higher energy prices, fiscal pressures and the outlook for central bank policy. Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss recent bond-market selling, the ECB’s expected 25bp rate hike to 2.5%, and the growing interaction between fiscal policy, inflation and tighter financial conditions across the Eurozone. In the UK, attention turns to fiscal credibility ahead of the Budget and the Bank of England’s next policy update, wi...

US payrolls take centre stage as markets turn from Federal Reserve policy back to the data, while UK fiscal uncertainty and global inflation developments shape the wider macro outlook. Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview the week ahead for professional investors. In the UK, recent employment and retail sales data remain weak, while underlying services and wage pressures are moderating despite elevated headline inflation. The monetary policy implications remain neutral to dovish, but the fisca...