Run the Numbers

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ breaks down Anthropic’s S-1: the revenue growth, 900% net revenue retention, compute costs, gross margin, and whether the company is actually profitable. We also cover the risk factors, the five-class share structure, executive pay, and what a roughly $2 trillion valuation implies next to other recent IPOs.—SPONSORS:RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cjFidelity Private Shares gives founders the structure and simplicity to focus on what actually matters - building your company. If your startup needs a little extra support (and let’s be honest, who doesn’t need a little help now and then), then you’re in for a pleasant surprise with Fidelity. If you stay investor ready, you don’t have to get investor ready. Check out www.fidelityprivateshares.comRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjCloud Capital helps you say goodbye to on-demand rates for cloud. Committing more cuts the rate you pay for cloud infrastructure by 20–60%. Commit wrong and you pay for capacity you'll never use. Cloud Capital underwrites that risk, so you capture the savings of deeper commitments without locking in architecture or putting engineers on it. Go to www.cloudcapital.coBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsAbacum puts your actuals, forecasts, models, and business context in one place, so you can update the plan, run scenarios, and answer "why did this change?" without rebuilding the story from six spreadsheets and a Slack thread. Connect your source systems, keep models and assumptions aligned, and give leaders trusted answers while decisions are still being made. Go to abacum.ai/mostly-metrics.EY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNCJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Cold Open1:08 Ticker, Raise, and Valuation2:02 Three Big Questions2:21 Key Stats at a Glance8:04 The Best Shareholder Letter Ever11:18 Where Anthropic Sits in the AI Stack15:20 How Anthropic Makes Money18:02 Run Rate vs. ARR20:56 Revenue Efficiency22:48 The Four Financial Drivers25:16 Are They Profitable?26:37 Gross Margin31:29 Cash Flow35:22 Wallet Share and Too Many Partners37:18 Red Flags40:49 The Cap Table42:08 Exec Pay and the Board43:33 Valuation44:50 IPO Comps45:12 Odds and Ends45:55 Bull Case and Final Take46:57 Wrap Up#RunTheNumbersPodcast #Anthropic #IPO #S1 #AI

In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ welcomes back Sid Kumar, who has led go-to-market through perpetual, cloud, SaaS, and consumption models at CA, AWS, HubSpot, and now Databricks. They cover how consumption changes the sales org, why customer success has an identity crisis, how to build a commission stack, and what ARR actually means. Sid also shares how AI is reshaping capacity planning and why he thinks annual planning is giving way to continuous planning.—SPONSORS:Abacum puts your actuals, forecasts, models, and business context in one place, so you can update the plan, run scenarios, and answer "why did this change?" without rebuilding the story from six spreadsheets and a Slack thread. Connect your source systems, keep models and assumptions aligned, and give leaders trusted answers while decisions are still being made.Go to abacum.ai/mostly-metrics.RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cjFidelity Private Shares gives founders the structure and simplicity to focus on what actually matters - building your company. If your startup needs a little extra support (and let’s be honest, who doesn’t need a little help now and then), then you’re in for a pleasant surprise with Fidelity. If you stay investor ready, you don’t have to get investor ready. Check out www.fidelityprivateshares.comRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjCloud Capital helps you say goodbye to on-demand rates for cloud. Committing more cuts the rate you pay for cloud infrastructure by 20–60%. Commit wrong and you pay for capacity you'll never use. Cloud Capital underwrites that risk, so you capture the savings of deeper commitments without locking in architecture or putting engineers on it. Go to www.cloudcapital.coBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsEY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNCraig on Linkedin: linkedin.com/in/craig-bealmear-a375573Oklo: https://oklo.com/CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Cold Open2:52 Go-to-Market5:05 Perpetual, SaaS, Consumption7:01 The Contract Isn’t the Moment of Truth10:24 A Different Kind of AE17:41 Customer Success’s Identity Crisis20:23 Hunter vs. Farmer22:44 Motion Specialization23:50 Building the Commission Stack28:07 CAC and LTV29:54 What ARR Means33:44 Pattern Matching With Data38:13 Forecasting38:59 Always Be Planning41:10 AI and Capacity Planning43:48 Will AI Change Sales Ops?46:16 The Player-Coach Is Back46:44 Getting Hands-On With AI48:08 Hot Take on Annual Planning#RunTheNumbersPodcast #Databricks #GoToMarket #SalesOps #ConsumptionPricing

In this episode of Run the Numbers, recorded live at Brex Mode in Chicago, CJ sits down with Craig Bealmear, CFO of Oklo, who spent nearly 30 years at BP before moving into nuclear. They cover raising billions before meaningful revenue, why cash matters more than the P&L, and how he hires the finance team Oklo will need two years from now. Craig also looks back at leading through the Deepwater Horizon crisis.—SPONSORS:Brex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsAbacum puts your actuals, forecasts, models, and business context in one place, so you can update the plan, run scenarios, and answer "why did this change?" without rebuilding the story from six spreadsheets and a Slack thread. Connect your source systems, keep models and assumptions aligned, and give leaders trusted answers while decisions are still being made. Go to abacum.ai/mostly-metrics.RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cjFidelity Private Shares gives founders the structure and simplicity to focus on what actually matters - building your company. If your startup needs a little extra support (and let’s be honest, who doesn’t need a little help now and then), then you’re in for a pleasant surprise with Fidelity. If you stay investor ready, you don’t have to get investor ready. Check out www.fidelityprivateshares.comRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjCloud Capital helps you say goodbye to on-demand rates for cloud. Committing more cuts the rate you pay for cloud infrastructure by 20–60%. Commit wrong and you pay for capacity you'll never use. Cloud Capital underwrites that risk, so you capture the savings of deeper commitments without locking in architecture or putting engineers on it. Go to www.cloudcapital.coEY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNCraig on Linkedin: linkedin.com/in/craig-bealmear-a375573Oklo: https://oklo.com/CJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Cold Open2:38 What Oklo Does3:38 From BP to Nuclear6:03 The Power Behind the AI Stack7:47 Unconstrained Demand12:38 Risks13:50 Running a Pre-Revenue Company14:57 The Say-Do Ratio17:41 Asking the Dumb Questions18:13 Raising Capital Before the Projects21:15 Cash Management Pillars25:05 One-Way vs. Two-Way Decisions26:11 Defining Capability27:35 Hiring for Two Years Out28:07 Forecasting the Team 8 Quarters Out30:07 Deepwater Horizon31:46 Leading Through a Crisis32:19 Wrap Up#RunTheNumbersPodcast #Oklo #Nuclear #CFO #BrexMode

In Part 2 of our Token Series with Tabs, CJ and Ali Hussain ask how much AI is too much in finance. They cover why finance may be the most AI-forward function after product and engineering, how MCP became its “ChatGPT moment,” and why headless agents need a leash. They also get into where to start with governance and why deterministic layers still matter. —SPONSORS:Tabs is an AI-native revenue platform that unifies billing, collections, and revenue recognition for companies running usage-based or complex contracts. By bringing together ERP, CRM, and real product usage data into a single system of record, Tabs eliminates manual reconciliations and speeds up close and cash collection. Companies like Cortex, Statsig, and Cursor trust Tabs to scale revenue efficiently. Learn more at ⁠https://www.tabs.com⁠—LINKS:Mostly Talent: ⁠⁠ https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsN⁠⁠Guest: ⁠⁠⁠⁠ linkedin.com/in/ali-hussain786⁠Company: ⁠⁠ www.tabs.com⁠CJ: ⁠⁠ https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/⁠⁠Mostly metrics: ⁠⁠ https://www.mostlymetrics.com⁠⁠—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Cold Open1:05 Why CFOs Ask About Org Design2:25 Finance Is the Most AI-Forward Team3:43 MCP: Finance’s ChatGPT Moment5:08 Laying Tracks for Agents5:53 Vendors, Employees, Customers6:51 MCP, Harnesses, and Headless Agents8:34 The New Finance Operating System11:50 Governing AI in Finance12:12 Where to Start: Billing and Collections13:51 Will Deterministic Layers Survive?14:51 Build vs. Buy16:28 Why Revenue Work Is So Hard18:11 Next Up: Who Foots the Bill?#RunTheNumbersPodcast #Tabs #CFO #AI #AITokens

Episode Description: In this episode of Run the Numbers, CJ sits down with Erica Dorfman, CFO of Brex, to trace her path from capital markets at SoFi to product to the CFO seat. They cover why Brex moved away from lending, what happened behind the scenes during the SVB collapse, and how Erica keeps reinventing her role and her team as the company scales.—SPONSORS:Cloud Capital helps you say goodbye to on-demand rates for cloud. Committing more cuts the rate you pay for cloud infrastructure by 20–60%. Commit wrong and you pay for capacity you'll never use. Cloud Capital underwrites that risk, so you capture the savings of deeper commitments without locking in architecture or putting engineers on it. Go to www.cloudcapital.coBrex is an intelligent finance platform that combines corporate cards, built-in expense management, and AI agents to eliminate manual finance work. By automating expense reviews and reconciliations, Brex gives CFOs more time for the high-impact work that drives growth. Join 35,000+ companies like Anthropic, Coinbase, and DoorDash at https://www.brex.com/metricsAbacum puts your actuals, forecasts, models, and business context in one place, so you can update the plan, run scenarios, and answer "why did this change?" without rebuilding the story from six spreadsheets and a Slack thread. Connect your source systems, keep models and assumptions aligned, and give leaders trusted answers while decisions are still being made.Go to abacum.ai/mostly-metrics.RightRev is a revenue recognition platform built for the AI economy, helping finance support usage-based pricing, credits, hybrid contracts, seats plus consumption, and whatever commercial model comes next. It gives product teams the freedom to keep innovating without outdated revenue systems slowing them down. Learn how RightRev can help at https://rightrev.com/cjFidelity Private Shares gives founders the structure and simplicity to focus on what actually matters - building your company. If your startup needs a little extra support (and let’s be honest, who doesn’t need a little help now and then), then you’re in for a pleasant surprise with Fidelity. If you stay investor ready, you don’t have to get investor ready. Check out www.fidelityprivateshares.comRillet is an AI-native ERP built for modern finance teams that want to replace NetSuite and close faster. With revenue recognition, close management, multi-entity support, and native Stripe and Salesforce integrations, Rillet helps scaling companies run their finance stack in one place. Hundreds of teams, including Windsurf and Mercor, use Rillet to make the zero-day close real. Book a demo at https://www.rillet.com/cjEY works with high-growth tech companies to navigate the messy realities of scaling—from regulatory requirements to IPO readiness. By helping teams get it right early and often, EY lets founders stay focused on building while reducing risk as they grow. Learn more at https://www.ey.com/techstartups—LINKS: Mostly Talent: https://mostlymetrics.typeform.com/to/cLTxtAsNErica on Linkedin: linkedin.com/in/erica-dorfman-4034b717Brex: www.brex.comCJ: https://www.linkedin.com/in/cj-gustafson-13140948/Mostly metrics: https://www.mostlymetrics.com—TIMESTAMPS:0:00 Cold Open2:24 Swimming and the CFO Mindset6:03 The Columbia Finance Mafia7:48 The Physics of a Business11:16 VP of Cash at Brex12:40 How Banking Partnerships Work17:58 Why Brex Moved Away From Lending19:23 Great Adjacency vs. Distraction21:31 AI Auditing Every Transaction23:00 Operating Through Chaos at SoFi25:45 The SVB Weekend29:00 Crisis Meets Opportunity37:31 Asking “Stupid” Questions39:44 Rebuilding the Team43:33 Killing Meetings46:05 Erica’s Biggest Mistake47:08 Advice to Her Younger Self47:36 Brex’s Finance Tech Stack48:37 Craziest Expense Ever#RunTheNumbersPodcast #Brex #CFO #Building #FinanceLeadership