The Strength In Numbers Podcast with G. Elliott Morris

Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com.On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir take reader questions for their final episode before Election Day. Replay the live conversation for our insights about how to read early vote data, and watch to watch for on election night. Speaking of, don’t forget! David and I will be live with other members of The Downballot, Strength In Numbers, and FiftyPlusOne teams here on Substack on Nov. 3 at 6:45 PM ET. Join us for an extra-informative and fun live discussion of the election results as they come in.Just click below to add a reminder to your calendar:Apple | Google | Office 365 | Outlook | Outlook.com | YahooThis video is free to watch, but it was not free to produce. If you value this podcast and want to help keep it going, please consider becoming a premium subscriber to Strength In Numbers. Paid subscriptions keep the show ad-free, fund the newsletter, and ensure we have the time it takes to do original data-driven analysis of politics and elections. Paying subscribers also gain the ability to send in questions during our livestreams, so you can directly shape our conversations on the podcast.Timestamps:For general subjects covered:00:00 Intro and programming notes06:59 House forecast and the median seat count13:04 Money in the Texas Senate race25:21 Likely voter screens and the Maine poll gap38:20 Early vote: how much to trust itBy question asked:16:44 Q: Do poll results expose the limits of big money?20:21 Q (Kelty): Is Musk's spending going to ads or voter mobilization?22:58 Q: Does money have a diminishing role in elections?24:23 Q (Robert): Why do the Marist and Citadel polls show such a large registered vs. likely voter gap?31:36 Q (Anonymous): What are the top bellwether races, like Mike Lawler's seat?35:56 Q (live reader): What's the first early drop to watch, like Loudoun County?38:20 Q (Jane): How much stock should we put in early vote analysis?46:34 Q (Ed): Are the polls misidentifying likely voters?52:29 Q (Alex): Does Trump's rally strategy matter if he can't fill a stadium?54:10 Q (final): What's the most plausible surprise result?. . .Thanks to everyone who joined us for the weekly livestream on Substack. We’ll be back next week!As a reminder, paid subscribers to Strength In Numbers get to participate in our live Q&A! If you missed our video livestream, you can watch it by clicking play on the web version of this post at gelliottmorris.com.You can also subscribe to us on your favorite podcast app to listen on your own time. And if you do listen via one of those apps, please drop us a five-star rating and review if you feel we’ve earned it — it really helps people discover the show!You can read the transcript of our conversation by clicking the headline of this article to take you to the web version of the podcast, then clicking the button just below the byline that looks either like a piece of paper or is labeled “Transcript,” like so:If you’re a reader of Strength in Numbers and haven’t yet subscribed to David’s newsletter, head to the-downballot.com.And if you’re coming from David’s site, subscribe here to get the numbers behind the news. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com.On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir invited Elliott’s colleague at FiftyPlusOne, Mary Radcliffe, onto the show to explain how we caught one pollster lying about its data, and what led another to delete its entire internet history.This video is free to watch, but it was not free to produce. If you value this podcast and want to help keep it going, please consider becoming a premium subscriber to Strength In Numbers. Paid subscriptions keep the show ad-free, fund the newsletter, and ensure we have the time it takes to do original data-driven analysis of politics and elections. Paying subscribers also gain the ability to send in questions during our livestreams, so you can directly shape our conversations on the podcast.Timestamps:02:29 Wedgewood Polls: how the fabrication was exposed 15:26 Past fraud cases and the history of fake polling 31:25 Using raw data to find patterns of fraud43:34 Possible motives—and why this problem could get worseThanks to everyone who joined us for the weekly livestream on Substack. We’ll be back next week!As a reminder, paid subscribers to Strength In Numbers get to participate in our live Q&A! If you missed our video livestream, you can watch it by clicking play on the web version of this post at gelliottmorris.com.You can also subscribe to us on your favorite podcast app to listen on your own time. And if you do listen via one of those apps, please drop us a five-star rating and review if you feel we’ve earned it — it really helps people discover the show!You can read the transcript of our conversation by clicking the headline of this article to take you to the web version of the podcast, then clicking the button just below the byline that looks either like a piece of paper or is labeled “Transcript,” like so:If you’re a reader of Strength in Numbers and haven’t yet subscribed to David’s newsletter, head to the-downballot.com.And if you’re coming from David’s site, subscribe here to get the numbers behind the news. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

Here’s a fun fact: According to economist Nicholas Bloom and coauthors, for every dollar the U.S. Federal Government spends collecting data at the national Bureau of Labor Statistics, it returns $25 in additional national economic activity. Seems like a pretty good deal, right? Well, that economic — as well as the intrinsic democratic (lowercase “d”) — value of our federal data system (think of agencies like the Census Bureau as well as the BLS) is now under threat. Proposed changes to the 2030 census, and the widespread defunding of the departments that generate federal data, could decrease the accuracy of many studies of the population, as well as political polls (something of great interest to this newsletter’s audience). And here’s one matter of particular concern: A proposed change by the Trump administration to the 2030 Census could result in an undercount of the population in states with large clusters of non-citizens, including both legal immigrants and unauthorized immigrant residents (think Texas, Florida, and California). This change is likely unconstitutional, but that may not stop the change from being implemented.On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, Elliott is joined by Chris Jackson, Senior Vice President at the polling and research firm SSRS, to talk through what the “federal data system” is, what these threats are, and what you can do about it. After you listen to this podcast, please go to handsoffourcens.us to learn how to leave a public comment about the proposed changesThis video is free to watch, but it was not free to produce. If you value this podcast and want to help keep it going, please consider becoming a premium subscriber to Strength In Numbers. Paid subscriptions keep the show ad-free, fund the newsletter, and ensure we have the time it takes to do original data-driven analysis of politics and elections. Paying subscribers also gain the ability to send in questions during our livestreams, so you can directly shape our conversations on the podcast.Time stamps:00:00 Intro: the proposed 2030 Census rule and how to leave a comment04:20 What federal data is and why it matters19:20 Threats from staff cuts, shutdowns, and DOGE43:26 Falling trust in the data and the political fight over who gets to be included as “people”59:04 What you can do about thisThanks again to Chris Jackson for spending the time to walk us through the federal data system.As a reminder, paid subscribers to Strength In Numbers get to participate in our live Q&A on Substack Live each week. You can also subscribe to us on your favorite podcast app to listen on your own time, or check out the Strength In Numbers channel on YouTube. And if you do listen via one of those apps, please drop us a five-star rating and review if you feel we’ve earned it — it really helps people discover the show!You can read the transcript of our conversation by clicking the headline of this article to take you to the web version of the podcast, then clicking the button just below the byline that looks either like a piece of paper or is labeled “Transcript,” like so: This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com.On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir show what could happen if the polls are underestimating either Democrats or Republicans ahead of the November elections. Given Democrats’ edge in most key Senate races today, we ask: How big would the miss need to be for Republicans to keep their majority? What about in the House? And how would these hypothetical misses compare to historical misses?This video is free to watch, but it was not free to produce. If you value this podcast and want to help keep it going, please consider becoming a premium subscriber to Strength In Numbers. Paid subscriptions keep the show ad-free, fund the newsletter, and ensure we have the time it takes to do original data-driven analysis of politics and elections. Paying subscribers also gain the ability to send in questions during our livestreams, so you can directly shape our conversations on the podcast.Here are the key timestamps from our podcast this week:00:00 Three rules for reading the polls03:05 The “named congressional ballot” and what it says about the House19:53 Internal polls, candidate quality, and the Senate25:29 What if the polls are wrong? Senate scenarios43:48 The House under a big polling missThanks to everyone who joined us for the weekly livestream on Substack. We’ll be back next week!As a reminder, paid subscribers to Strength In Numbers get to participate in our live Q&A! If you missed our video livestream, you can watch it by clicking play on the web version of this post at gelliottmorris.com.You can also subscribe to us on your favorite podcast app to listen on your own time. And if you do listen via one of those apps, please drop us a five-star rating and review if you feel we’ve earned it — it really helps people discover the show!You can read the transcript of our conversation by clicking the headline of this article to take you to the web version of the podcast, then clicking the button just below the byline that looks either like a piece of paper or is labeled “Transcript,” like so:If you’re a reader of Strength in Numbers and haven’t yet subscribed to David’s newsletter, head to the-downballot.com.And if you’re coming from David’s site, subscribe here to get the numbers behind the news. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe

Watch this video on gelliottmorris.com.On this week’s Strength In Numbers podcast, G. Elliott Morris and David Nir explain why polls could underestimate either the Democrats or the Republicans this November. You can make a good case either way.Plus, will Democrats win a majority of governors’ mansions for the first time since 2009?This video is free to watch, but it was not free to produce. If you value this podcast and want to help keep it going, please consider becoming a premium subscriber to Strength In Numbers. Paid subscriptions keep the show ad-free, fund the newsletter, and ensure we have the time it takes to do original data-driven analysis of politics and elections. Paying subscribers also gain the ability to send in questions during our livestreams, so you can directly shape our conversations on the podcast.A few big takeaways from the conversation:* Polls underestimated Republicans in 2016, 2020, and 2024. Why did they do that? Is it possible we’re seeing the same biases now? Or have pollsters overcorrected for their past misfires and are now undershooting Democrats?* Pollsters could be increasing the weight on very pro-Trump segments of the population. Due to possible error from something pollsters call “recall bias,” there might be too many MAGA Republicans in surveys—especially if disaffected Trump voters are claiming they did not in fact vote for him in the past.* Or, super-engaged respondents are flooding polls with pro-Democratic attitudes. Elliott finds that “high-effort” respondents lean Democratic. If they’re overrepresented in polls (as they have been in the past), this could be costing Republicans about a point or 2 on average.* Democrats look favored to net at least two governorships, and could win back a majority of states’ executive posts for the first time since 2009. But there are a ton of extremely close races, so if Democrats finish strong, that number could grow.Thanks to everyone who joined us for the weekly livestream on Substack. We’ll be back next week!As a reminder, paid subscribers to Strength In Numbers get to participate in our live Q&A! If you missed our video livestream, you can watch it by clicking play on the web version of this post at gelliottmorris.com.You can also subscribe to us on your favorite podcast app to listen on your own time. And if you do listen via one of those apps, please drop us a five-star rating and review if you feel we’ve earned it — it really helps people discover the show!You can read the transcript of our conversation by clicking the headline of this article to take you to the web version of the podcast, then clicking the button just below the byline that looks either like a piece of paper or is labeled “Transcript,” like so:If you’re a reader of Strength in Numbers and haven’t yet subscribed to David’s newsletter, head to the-downballot.com.And if you’re coming from David’s site, subscribe here to get the numbers behind the news. This is a public episode. If you'd like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit www.gelliottmorris.com/subscribe