Party Lines with Kurt & Erin

Friday news dump: Susie Wiles is out as White House Chief of Staff and Stephen Miller takes over Monday. Erin Maguire and Kurt Bardella are joined by Julie Grace Brufke, founder of Sources Say, to sort through the fallout.Kurt argues Trump picked the most deliberate villain he could for an incoming Democratic majority, a “Bond villain” for Democrats to run against. JGB shares what Republicans are texting her, and Erin gives Susie Wiles her flowers for how she ran the White House. JGB also revisits her reporting on Katie Miller and Eric Swalwell.They get into the messy leadership races in the House and Senate, including Jim Jordan vs. Steve Scalise, Thune vs. Barrasso, and the member who wants to ban interviews with Jake Sherman. Then it’s on to 2028, which has already started: can JD Vance separate himself from Trump, and who are the wild cards? Think The Rock, Mark Cuban, Kathy Hilton and Stephen A. Smith.Plus karaoke with Ilhan Omar, freshmen to watch, and JGB’s take on the most important cereal question in politics.Rate, review and subscribe to the Party Lines Podcast. Party on, party animals.Timestamps0:00 Cold open0:30 Happy Friday with Julie Grace Brufke1:17 Susie Wiles out, Stephen Miller in3:18 Why Miller is the perfect villain for Democrats4:37 “60 votes in the Senate in 2028”5:10 Is Miller a distraction while Trump plays HGTV?6:51 Are Republicans breaking with Trump?7:26 Giving Susie Wiles her flowers8:46 The spray-painted hair incident10:30 The Katie Miller–Eric Swalwell story11:10 JGB’s path from Fox intern to Sources Say13:02 What DC taught her about sources14:22 Her biggest stories16:16 Karaoke with Ilhan Omar and favorite members18:36 House and Senate leadership elections19:56 Jim Jordan vs. Steve Scalise23:41 Freshmen to watch24:46 The member who wants to ban Jake Sherman interviews27:28 Thune vs. Barrasso30:25 2028 has already started32:19 Can JD Vance separate from Trump?35:40 Wild card picks: The Rock, Mark Cuban, Kathy Hilton42:03 Quick-fire questions45:49 Wrap

Erin Maguire is out this week, so Kurt Bardella goes solo.Kurt starts with Haley Stevens endorsing Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan’s Senate race. He asks whether it’s a political payoff or a personal grudge after her primary loss to Abdul El-Sayed. He looks at how she blindsided her own staff and argues the endorsement will have zero impact, because she has no juice left with voters.Then the big picture. Kurt explains why the midterms could be an extinction-level event for MAGA and why this is a blame election. He warns Democrats not to overreach, and especially not to impeach again. He also predicts Trump will blame everyone but himself: Paxton, Miller, Hegseth and Vance. He covers what the GOP has to choose after an electoral beatdown: go back to compassionate conservatism, or follow the California GOP into irrelevance. Finally, he considers what happens if he’s wrong, and what Trump’s unpopularity means for every Republican on the ballot.A full post-election roundup is coming next.

Kurt Bardella and Erin Maguire welcome Yemisi Egbewole, former chief of staff to the White House press office under President Biden, now a senior fellow at Third Way and founder of Podium Strategies.Yemisi explains why it's so much harder than it looks to turn big bills into three sentences anyone can understand, what Democrats got wrong when they answered "it feels hard out there" with "look at Europe," and why comms teams finally have a seat at the table. Using the Georgia governor's race as an example, she says that when Republicans run the images, Democrats can't just rise above it: sometimes you have to get in the mud. Plus: what happens when everybody's a radical?Then it's the Uncomfortable Truths: Midterms Edition. Kurt warns Democrats about learning the wrong lesson from success, Yemisi says the margins in Michigan will matter for 2028, and Erin admits Republicans still haven't figured out how to turn out voters when Trump isn't on the ballot.And just in time for Halloween, the political graveyard: what should stay dead (opponents' family members in attack ads, candidates dancing to trending sounds, consultant-on-consultant violence) and what keeps coming back (Trump's political obituary, the "ignore the polls" discourse, and cable news). Plus costumes, the cereal test and the careers they'd have chosen instead.Rate, review and subscribe, and join us next week for election week. LINKS FROM THIS EPISODEYemisi Egbewole at Third Wayhttps://www.thirdway.org/about/staff/yemisi-egbewole Atlanta News First: New Jackson ad reignites fight over Bottoms' record as Atlanta mayorhttps://www.atlantanewsfirst.com/2026/09/11/new-jackson-ad-reignites-bitter-fight-over-bottoms-record-atlanta-mayor/ Fake polling firm Wedgewood tricked media with fabricated surveyshttps://wset.com/news/nation-world/fake-polling-firm-tricked-media-claims-fabricated-surveys-were-for-social-experiment-democrats-republicans-abdul-el-sayed-mallory-mcmorrow-francesca-hong-james-talarico-ken-paxton-rrtThe 2026 midterms could be the most expensive cycle everhttps://political.org/2026/10/16/2026-midterms-could-become-the-most-expensive-election-cycle-ever-adimpact-data-show/

With less than two weeks until Election Day, Kurt Bardella and Erin Maguire skip the polls and follow the money and the early vote. The DGA puts $1 million behind David Jolly in Florida, JB Pritzker writes a seven-figure check for Keisha Lance Bottoms in Georgia, and Texas early voting is off to a strong start. Erin explains why Republicans aren't picking up the phone for pollsters and why, at this point, campaigns aren't convincing voters, they're driving them. Plus: is James Talarico closing strong in Texas, and how Abdul El-Sayed took on the attacks about his family in Michigan.Then, family ties: use them or lose them. Vivek Ramaswamy's ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged mother has crossed into group chats, and JD Vance is telling Republicans to stop whining about it. Kurt and Erin debate when a candidate's family is fair game.Last, the state of polling in 2026: a pollster that admits it made its numbers up, The New York Times pulling its surveys from the tracker, and what newsrooms should do before they report the next poll. And in Left Field Lunacy, the Jacksonville Jaguars will let fans spend eternity at the stadium.What do you think about the Acton ad, or public polling? Leave a comment and find us on social at Party Lines. LINKS FROM THIS EPISODEFlorida Phoenix: Democratic Governors Association investing $1 million to support David Jollyhttps://floridaphoenix.com/2026/10/20/democratic-governors-association-investing-1-million-to-support-david-jolly/ AJC: Billionaire Democrats rush to Keisha Lance Bottoms' aid in final stretchhttps://www.ajc.com/politics/2026/10/pritzker-bloomberg-donate-keisha-lance-bottoms-georgia-governor/ Michigan Public: Rogers-El-Sayed debate gets hostile in pivotal U.S. Senate racehttps://www.michiganpublic.org/politics-government/2026-10-09/rogers-el-sayed-debate-gets-hostile-as-candidates-clash-in-pivotal-us-senate-race CBS News: Ohio governor's race takes ugly turn with Ramaswamy ad featuring Amy Acton's estranged motherhttps://www.cbsnews.com/news/ohio-governor-amy-acton-mother-ramaswamy/ Springfield News-Sun: JD Vance tells Republicans to "stop whining" about the Ramaswamy adhttps://www.springfieldnewssun.com/local/jd-vance-tells-republicans-to-stop-whining-about-ramaswamy-ad-with-acton-s-estranged-mother/article_c66de25e-fc7f-5011-b27b-86e48a6f05d2.html Mediaite: National polling company admits it's totally fakehttps://www.mediaite.com/media/news/national-polling-company-admits-its-totally-fake-crows-it-was-far-too-easy-to-get-major-media-outlets-to-bite/ KATU: Polling firm closes after releasing fake election surveys for a "social experiment"https://katu.com/news/nation-world/polling-firm-closes-after-releasing-fake-election-surveys-for-social-experiment-los-angeles-mayoral-race-wisconsin-democratic-gubernatorial-primary-karen-bass-francesca-hong Mediaite: Francesca Hong concedes after razor-thin Wisconsin primaryhttps://www.mediaite.com/media/news/democratic-socialist-francesca-hong-concedes-after-falling-agonizingly-short-in-razor-thin-wisconsin-primary/ Action News Jax: Jaguars fans can reserve a permanent place in the new stadium, even after deathhttps://www.actionnewsjax.com/news/local/forever-teal-jags-fans-can-reserve-permanent-place-new-stadium-even-after-death/JEEYTCKEMBCEVLNORUOPR6UCLI/ CHAPTERS0:00 Less than two weeks to go0:33 Follow the early vote and the money1:34 The DGA bets on David Jolly1:47 Pritzker backs Keisha Lance Bottoms2:05 Pritzker, Beshear and the 2028 shadow race2:44 Texas early voting3:11 Republican malaise and the base play4:09 Why Republicans aren't talking to pollsters5:07 Driving voters, not convincing them5:59 Is Talarico closing strong?6:37 El-Sayed takes the attacks head on7:38 Family ties: use them or lose them7:56 Ramaswamy's ad with Amy Acton's mother9:06 Vance: politics is a tough business10:29 When family turns on a candidate12:20 Fair game or hands off?13:15 Will this follow JD Vance?14:32 The state of polling in 202615:42 Silly season: real polls vs. garbage polls16:22 Why people trust prediction markets17:10 The Wedgewood fake polls18:44 Where are the media's polling standards?20:00 When the polls miss: El-Sayed and Francesca Hong21:02 Only report polls you commission23:31 Did bad polling cost Haley Stevens?23:55 Left Field Lunacy: rest in peace at the Jaguars' stadium26:48 Wrap and happy birthday, Kurt

Erin and Kurt break down Maria Bartiromo's shocking exit from Fox amid alleged White House leaks, debate whether Trump and Kamala should campaign for midterm candidates, argue over the best Democratic surrogates, and take on a bipartisan bill to strip pensions from ethics-violating members of Congress.00:00 — Cold open: Kurt needs a drink after "one of the dumbest conference calls" of his life, and Erin pays off her no-bike-helmet bet after Seth Moulton's primary loss01:21 — Big story: Maria Bartiromo is out at Fox News and Fox Business01:48 — Kurt's reaction: losing a "cornerstone" talent this way is shocking — pulled off air in August with no goodbye show02:57 — Erin draws the comparison to Fox abruptly firing the #1-rated Tucker Carlson03:35 — How it broke: a brief farewell statement, then reporting (Oliver Darcy) that Bartiromo was allegedly screenshotting internal memos and texts for the administration04:21 — Kurt on why this is a fireable, contract-breaking offense — and why you never trust "the leakiest people in the professional world" to keep a secret05:35 — Fox's pattern: nobody's untouchable (Beck, O'Reilly, Megyn Kelly, Tucker) — "Exhibit A: Jesse Waters"06:03 — Erin: CNN did the same with Chris Cuomo and Don Lemon07:33 — Jason Chaffetz steps in to fill Bartiromo's morning slot07:49 — Speculation kicks off: could Bartiromo be in line for White House Press Secretary?08:12 — Erin's take: unlikely — more probable she goes independent or launches her own venture09:24 — Kurt's counter-pitch: skip Press Secretary, make her Treasury Secretary09:39 — Pivoting to the midterms: with ~60 days left, should Trump and Kamala campaign for candidates?10:51 — Kurt's story from a 2006 special election: turning down a Bush campaign visit — and winning anyway13:16 — Erin: the calculus is different for Trump (boosts GOP turnout) vs. Kamala (playing forward to 2028)14:24 — Why telephone town halls are cheap, effective voter contact15:05 — Best surrogates right now: Kurt argues for executive-experience Democrats — Pritzker, Wes Moore, Andy Beshear — over legislators16:41 — Erin's pick for Abdul El-Sayed specifically: Shapiro or Buttigieg, to counter attacks branding him a socialist/anti-Semite18:16 — Kurt on local star power over national names: Colin Allred pairing with Mark Cuban in Texas19:39 — New bipartisan bill: strip pensions from members of Congress found guilty of ethics violations20:10 — Erin and Kurt agree: lose your floor privileges, healthcare, and pension if censured or expelled21:16 — The flip side: should former presidents get lifetime pay so they're not stuck hustling for cash post-office?22:56 — Means-testing the idea — wealthy ex-presidents like Trump or Romney wouldn't need it24:04 — Historical context: the presidency wasn't designed for a 40-year retirement24:34 — Erin on the Bidens' post-presidency cash-ins, with a pointed Hunter Biden aside