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Author: VBL

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Capital markets recap, commentary, and analysis for evolving traders

vblgoldfix.substack.com
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This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.comIn this week's GoldFix Competent Investor interview, Tom Bodrovics sits down with Adam Hamilton. The Zeal LLC founder explains why gold's break below $4,000 stopped him out of positions, and walks through the backwards war trade: war pushes oil up, rate hike odds rise, the dollar strengthens and gold gets crushed.He rejects the sterile asset argument with data from every Fed hike cycle since 1971, calls gold miners wildly profitable at 11 to 13 times earnings, and in an 18 minute bonus section for subscribers lays out how he builds a gold stock portfolio.Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Intro: Adam Hamilton on Gold Markets 00:00:34 - Gold's Breakdown Below $4,000 00:03:26 - Potential Catalyst for Gold Plunge 00:06:50 - Anomalous Backward War Trade 00:10:29 - France's Debt Crisis Impact 00:12:15 - High Rates as Gold Tailwind? 00:16:19 - Gold Seasonality and Tax Loss Selling 00:18:27 - Gold Miners' Profitability at $4,000 00:21:16 - Risk of Diesel Shortages for Miners 00:23:28 - Who's Buying at Oversold Levels? 00:25:59 - Fed Rate Cuts: What Would Trigger? 00:28:06 - Midterm Election Impact on Trump 00:30:05 - Biggest Market Risks: AI Bubble 00:33:36 - Bonus Section: Building a Gold Stock Portfolio 00:37:25 - Explorers vs Producers and the Lassonde Curve 00:40:13 - Weighing Jurisdictional Risk 00:42:20 - Balancing Risk and Trailing Stops 00:47:12 - The Case for a 5 to 10% Gold Allocation 00:49:18 - What Would Make Adam Bearish on Gold? 00:50:40 - Adam's Products and Contact Info
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.comHousekeeping: Good Morning! Transcript of opening monologue at bottom.Featured Analysis:In Other News: Data on Deck: Fed Week, PCE, GDPMonday, Oct. 26No events scheduledTuesday, Oct. 27* 8:30 AMDurable GoodsSep-1.2%0%9:00 AMS&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Px IndexAug.--0.0%* 10:00 AMNew Home SalesSep-655K684K* 10:00 AMConference Bd - Consumer ConfidenceOct.-81.281.9* TBA U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting???Wednesday, Oct. 28* 8:30 AMAdvance U.S. Trade Balance in GoodsSep---132.6B* 8:30 AMWholesale InventoriesSep--0.7%* 8:30 AMRetail InventoriesSep--0.3%* 2:00 PMU.S. interest rate decision---3.75%-4%Thursday, Oct. 29* 8:30 AMAdvance estimate GDP3Q-3.2%2.2%* 8:30 AMWeekly Jobless ClaimsOct. 24-200K194K* 8:30 AMPersonal Income, M/M%Sep-0.3%0.2%* 8:30 AMConsumer Spending, M/M%Sep-0.6%0.9%* 8:30 AMPCE Price Idx, M/M%Sep-0.5%0.3%* 8:30 AMPCE Price Idx, Y/Y%Sep-3.7%3.4%* 8:30 AMPCE Core Price Idx, M/M%Sep-0.3%0.2%* 8:30 AMPCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y%Sep-3.1%3%Friday, Oct. 30* 8:30 AMEmployment Cost Index3Q-0.8%0.9%* 9:45 AMChicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMIOct.--58.8GoldFix Members: Exclusive Bullion Pricing Now AvailableGoldFix has partnered with Battalion Metals to give our community direct access to institutional-grade physical bullion at exclusive member pricing. Through this partnership, GoldFix members can purchase gold and silver products at pricing typically about 100 basis points below prevailing dealer ratesRead full story***Please support Independent Media Buy a hat, mug, or hoodie today*** or Buy a Coffee for the GoldFix internThe Next Metals Boom Belongs to Physical Owners
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.comHousekeeping: Good Morning! Transcript of opening monologue at bottom.Featured Analysis:In Other News: Data on Deck: Fed Week, PCE, GDPMonday, Oct. 26No events scheduledTuesday, Oct. 27* 8:30 AMDurable GoodsSep-1.2%0%9:00 AMS&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Px IndexAug.--0.0%* 10:00 AMNew Home SalesSep-655K684K* 10:00 AMConference Bd - Consumer ConfidenceOct.-81.281.9* TBA U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting???Wednesday, Oct. 28* 8:30 AMAdvance U.S. Trade Balance in GoodsSep---132.6B* 8:30 AMWholesale InventoriesSep--0.7%* 8:30 AMRetail InventoriesSep--0.3%* 2:00 PMU.S. interest rate decision---3.75%-4%Thursday, Oct. 29* 8:30 AMAdvance estimate GDP3Q-3.2%2.2%* 8:30 AMWeekly Jobless ClaimsOct. 24-200K194K* 8:30 AMPersonal Income, M/M%Sep-0.3%0.2%* 8:30 AMConsumer Spending, M/M%Sep-0.6%0.9%* 8:30 AMPCE Price Idx, M/M%Sep-0.5%0.3%* 8:30 AMPCE Price Idx, Y/Y%Sep-3.7%3.4%* 8:30 AMPCE Core Price Idx, M/M%Sep-0.3%0.2%* 8:30 AMPCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y%Sep-3.1%3%Friday, Oct. 30* 8:30 AMEmployment Cost Index3Q-0.8%0.9%* 9:45 AMChicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMIOct.--58.8GoldFix Members: Exclusive Bullion Pricing Now AvailableGoldFix has partnered with Battalion Metals to give our community direct access to institutional-grade physical bullion at exclusive member pricing. Through this partnership, GoldFix members can purchase gold and silver products at pricing typically about 100 basis points below prevailing dealer ratesRead full story***Please support Independent Media Buy a hat, mug, or hoodie today*** or Buy a Coffee for the GoldFix internThe 1979 Confession That Still Haunts the FedWarsh Just Reopened the Fed’s Most Uncomfortable Chapter
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.comHousekeeping: Good Morning! Featured Analysis:In Other News: Data on Deck: Fed Week, PCE, GDPMonday, Oct. 26No events scheduledTuesday, Oct. 27* 8:30 AMDurable GoodsSep-1.2%0%9:00 AMS&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Px IndexAug.--0.0%* 10:00 AMNew Home SalesSep-655K684K* 10:00 AMConference Bd - Consumer ConfidenceOct.-81.281.9* TBA U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting???Wednesday, Oct. 28* 8:30 AMAdvance U.S. Trade Balance in GoodsSep---132.6B* 8:30 AMWholesale InventoriesSep--0.7%* 8:30 AMRetail InventoriesSep--0.3%* 2:00 PMU.S. interest rate decision---3.75%-4%Thursday, Oct. 29* 8:30 AMAdvance estimate GDP3Q-3.2%2.2%* 8:30 AMWeekly Jobless ClaimsOct. 24-200K194K* 8:30 AMPersonal Income, M/M%Sep-0.3%0.2%* 8:30 AMConsumer Spending, M/M%Sep-0.6%0.9%* 8:30 AMPCE Price Idx, M/M%Sep-0.5%0.3%* 8:30 AMPCE Price Idx, Y/Y%Sep-3.7%3.4%* 8:30 AMPCE Core Price Idx, M/M%Sep-0.3%0.2%* 8:30 AMPCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y%Sep-3.1%3%Friday, Oct. 30* 8:30 AMEmployment Cost Index3Q-0.8%0.9%* 9:45 AMChicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMIOct.--58.8GoldFix Members: Exclusive Bullion Pricing Now AvailableGoldFix has partnered with Battalion Metals to give our community direct access to institutional-grade physical bullion at exclusive member pricing. Through this partnership, GoldFix members can purchase gold and silver products at pricing typically about 100 basis points below prevailing dealer ratesRead full story***Please support Independent Media Buy a hat, mug, or hoodie today*** or Buy a Coffee for the GoldFix internThe Only 2 Charts That Matter Right Now
This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit vblgoldfix.substack.comHousekeeping: Good Morning! Featured Analysis:Right now VBS says be short Silver and GoldIn Other News: Data on Deck: Fed Week, PCE, GDPMonday, Oct. 26No events scheduledTuesday, Oct. 27* 8:30 AMDurable GoodsSep-1.2%0%9:00 AMS&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Px IndexAug.--0.0%* 10:00 AMNew Home SalesSep-655K684K* 10:00 AMConference Bd - Consumer ConfidenceOct.-81.281.9* TBA U.S. Federal Open Market Committee meeting???Wednesday, Oct. 28* 8:30 AMAdvance U.S. Trade Balance in GoodsSep---132.6B* 8:30 AMWholesale InventoriesSep--0.7%* 8:30 AMRetail InventoriesSep--0.3%* 2:00 PMU.S. interest rate decision---3.75%-4%Thursday, Oct. 29* 8:30 AMAdvance estimate GDP3Q-3.2%2.2%* 8:30 AMWeekly Jobless ClaimsOct. 24-200K194K* 8:30 AMPersonal Income, M/M%Sep-0.3%0.2%* 8:30 AMConsumer Spending, M/M%Sep-0.6%0.9%* 8:30 AMPCE Price Idx, M/M%Sep-0.5%0.3%* 8:30 AMPCE Price Idx, Y/Y%Sep-3.7%3.4%* 8:30 AMPCE Core Price Idx, M/M%Sep-0.3%0.2%* 8:30 AMPCE Core Price Idx, Y/Y%Sep-3.1%3%Friday, Oct. 30* 8:30 AMEmployment Cost Index3Q-0.8%0.9%* 9:45 AMChicago Business Barometer - ISM-Chicago Business Survey - Chicago PMIOct.--58.8GoldFix Members: Exclusive Bullion Pricing Now AvailableGoldFix has partnered with Battalion Metals to give our community direct access to institutional-grade physical bullion at exclusive member pricing. Through this partnership, GoldFix members can purchase gold and silver products at pricing typically about 100 basis points below prevailing dealer ratesRead full story***Please support Independent Media Buy a hat, mug, or hoodie today*** or Buy a Coffee for the GoldFix intern
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