Conversations With Gabriel

Former DA leader Tony Leon says the ANC lost the metros in the local elections but still holds most of the cards in the coalition talks. The ANC is on about 31% nationally and the DA just under 25%. In 2006, the last election Leon fought as leader, it was 64% against 16%. He tells Gabriel Makin the ceiling has fallen in on the ANC, and that for the DA "the summit is in view".Leon sets out what he would do as DA leader in the 13 days before mayors must be elected: honour the voters, do nothing now that hurts the party in 2029, and count the votes before making demands. He says the DA would be mad to let ActionSA choose its mayoral candidate. He argues the ANC has its own reason to be wary of ActionSA, which won its township wards from the ANC. He also warns that pushing the DA out of the national government would hit the bond market and the rand.Become a member of The Common Sense for R99 a month and get all the facts and analysis: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribeChapters:0:00 Tony Leon on the 2026 local elections3:16 What the DA should do in the coalition talks6:23 Should the DA chase mayoralties?8:56 The three coalitions that add up12:25 Why ActionSA is a risk to the ANC15:11 How ActionSA's voters changed18:41 The racism charge against Helen Zille20:43 ActionSA's demands on mayors23:29 Could the DA be pushed out of the GNU?28:09 What happens next

US Ambassador Leo Brent Bozell III says South Africa could become one of the biggest economic powers in the world, and every bit as successful as the United States, with the right policies. He points to the country's natural resources and tourism, and to the way it ended apartheid without a war.He also says Pretoria has refused to condemn "Kill the Boer", to make rural crime a national priority, and to give mining and telecoms the same BEE equity-equivalent option as every other sector. Those were three of the five things Washington asked South Africa to do. South Africa agreed to the other two. It will not interfere with the US refugee programme for Afrikaners, and the fight over the Expropriation Act has been left to the courts.Bozell says South Africa now has to make the next move, and that the next steps from the United States will not be good for South Africa. He explains why Starlink's offer to connect 500 schools for free was turned down, and why he says South Africa is siding with America's adversaries.Become a member for all the facts and analysis (R99/month)The Common SenseWatch on YouTubeChapters:0:00 Coming up0:29 Why Trump hand-picked Bozell for South Africa3:10 Why America should never have existed9:33 How America became the strongest nation12:03 Freedom, responsibility and American exceptionalism15:19 Life in a country that celebrates success20:04 Good guys, bad guys and spheres of influence25:34 South Africa first, and inequality since apartheid29:57 The three concerns and why Pretoria won't budge33:10 What Washington wanted, and what Pretoria refused38:54 Lurching toward America's adversaries44:16 Starlink, 500 schools and the 30% demand48:21 Haiti or America

Helen Zille, the DA's mayoral candidate for Johannesburg, tells Gabriel Makin that the city is not at the brink of the abyss but already over the edge, and that the DA will not stay in power at all costs. She explains why the least bad option after the 4 November election may be opposition rather than a coalition, why she does not believe corruption can be removed from Johannesburg with the ANC in government, and why she wants voters to consolidate behind the DA on both ballots so that the party can win 136 of the council's 270 seats. She also describes the city's finances, with residents owing Johannesburg R81 billion while the city owes its creditors R25 billion.The episode opens with the campaign, the Blue Brigades and the WaterWaxx borehole in Protea, which the DA finished for R2.6 million after Joburg Water abandoned it. Helen and Gabriel then discuss whether she feels vindicated after years of being called a liability to the DA, her fight against critical race theory inside the party, and why the DA's support base is now roughly a third Black, a third white and a third coloured and Indian. She recalls Henry Kissinger's visit in 2010 and what it taught her about the DA's growth from 1.7% in 1994. The conversation then turns to the drug crisis in Johannesburg, the "doomsday coalition" already running the city, her account of why Herman Mashaba turned against her, the MK Party's crimen injuria case, and her role in breaking the story of Steve Biko's death.Become a member for all the facts and analysis (R99/month): https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribeThe Common Sense: https://www.thecommonsense.co.zaChapters:0:00 Coming up0:31 The campaign and the Blue Brigades2:31 WaterWaxx: water for R2.6 million, not R37 million7:59 Does Helen Zille feel vindicated?15:50 Why the stakes for South Africa were so high21:21 A third, a third, a third: who votes DA22:56 From 1.7% in 1994: Henry Kissinger's question26:41 Why critics still call the DA a white party28:00 The drug crisis breaking Johannesburg's families31:30 Joburg is broke, and owed R81 billion36:14 Coalition or opposition after the election?38:55 Wealthy donors and the 136-seat majority40:47 Should voters see a doomsday coalition govern?44:27 ActionSA, Herman Mashaba and the EFF49:42 The MK Party's crimen injuria case51:45 Steve Biko and fighting apartheid53:31 South Africa as humanity's pathbreaker

DA MP Mlondi Mdluli, the party's spokesperson on small business development, returns to Conversations with Gabriel, this time in the studio. He walks Gabriel Makin through the five reforms from his piece for The Common Sense: working capital that is not a bank loan, a real foothold in formal retail space, by-law enforcement that does not ruin livelihoods, a single front door for support, and a better-resourced competition watchdog. Gabriel presses him on whether the state should help small business or simply get out of its way. They turn to the October fuel price increase and a shrinking economy, and Gabriel asks why no party has claimed offshore oil and gas exploration as its cause. In the second half Mlondi describes life as a DA MP with a DA deputy minister inside the department he oversees, and running the DA's local election campaign in the Umzinyathi district of KwaZulu-Natal: the doorstep, the hung Endumeni council, why KZN has not followed the shift in black support seen elsewhere, and his predictions for 4 November.Read Mlondi's article: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/economics_and_policy/township-businesses-do-not-lack-ambition-government-redBecome a member for all the facts and analysis (R99/month): https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribeThe Common Sense: https://www.thecommonsense.co.zaChapters:0:00 Township businesses and how South Africa defines a small business3:20 Five reforms: capital, retail space, by-laws and one front door8:42 Can a competition watchdog protect small business?14:55 The October fuel price hike, the Strait of Hormuz and a shrinking economy20:23 Offshore oil and gas: why no party claims it22:55 A DA MP outside the department, a DA deputy minister inside it, and the KZN campaign32:22 Why KwaZulu-Natal bucks the shift in black support for the DA37:14 MK, coalitions and predictions for the 4 November election

Princy Mthombeni, chair of South Africans for Constitutional Reform, is back with Gabriel Makin for the third episode of The Royal Sense. Home Affairs is moving asylum applications online after the Constitutional Court ruling, and the minister says 95% of applications are rejected as unfounded. So why do so few people leave? Princy argues that South Africa's borders are wide open, that deportation is the law and is cheaper than keeping people here, and that the country needs refugee camps and a state of emergency on deportations. She defends Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma as "the messenger" of frustrated South Africans, asks what happens to the MK Party if Jacob Zuma's health fails, and argues the ANC's problems run deeper than any one leader.Read The Common Sense on Jacob Zuma's health and the implications: https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/Politics/what-has-happened-jacob-zuma-these-are-implicationsBecome a member for all the facts and analysis (R99/month): https://www.thecommonsense.co.za/subscribeThe Common Sense: https://www.thecommonsense.co.zaChapters:0:00 Coming up0:27 Inside Koeberg: the first media tour in 40 years4:51 Meltdown fears, emergency drills and how a reactor works10:27 Clean steam, nuclear waste and why one plant isn't enough13:45 Jacinta Ngobese-Zuma: the problem or the messenger?20:01 Jacob Zuma's health and the future of the MK Party24:30 Is Zuma to blame, or is the ANC rotten?25:47 Online asylum applications after the court ruling29:57 95% rejected, so why aren't they deported?31:53 Refugee camps, NGOs and a state of emergency