The Common Sense Bull

Where is the smart money heading in tech, and what could reshape the AI trade in 2027?On Episode 11 of The Common Sense Bull, Eddie sits down with Felix Wang, Partner, Managing Director, and Head of Global Tech at Hedgeye, to discuss where he sees opportunity and why he believes investors should pay attention to the credit markets.Felix shares his research process, his outlook on Marvell and SiTime, and the financing concerns behind his bearish view on CoreWeave. They also explore how rising borrowing costs could affect AI infrastructure spending and why strong AI demand doesn’t necessarily translate into strong investment returns.This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.In this episode:Finding investment ideas through industry contacts and supply chain researchAI infrastructure trends in networking, optics, power, and coolingFelix’s investment cases for Marvell and SiTimeCoreWeave’s financing needs and potential dilution risksCredit market warning signs and their implications for techA potential Anthropic IPO and its role in funding the AI ecosystemFelix’s 2027 outlook: a year of dispersion, and why US-China relations matterAbout the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.Watch the video version on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@KeyAdvisors Connect with Key Advisors: keywealthmgmt.com Follow Eddie on X: x.com/commonsensebull Please note that the information and opinions presented in this podcast by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

Could the debt behind the AI boom put this rally at risk? Danielle DiMartino Booth says credit markets are already flashing warning signs, even as stocks hit record highs.In Episode 10 of The Common Sense Bull, Eddie Ghabour sits down with Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research and former advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, to discuss what’s happening beneath the market’s surface.Danielle explains why she believes the September rate hike was a policy mistake and why she thinks credit markets have already reached a breaking point. She and Eddie examine the borrowing behind AI spending, the financial pressure on American households, and why today’s mix of 1999-level valuations and 2007-level leverage leaves no playbook to follow.They also discuss how credit problems and overseas financial stress could force the Fed to respond, and how investors might approach gold, bonds and portfolio positioning heading into 2027.This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.In this episode:Did the Fed make a mistake by raising rates in September?Why credit markets are telling a different story than stocksScott Bessent, Treasury purchases and the bond marketCould rising debt undermine the AI spending boom?What household borrowing and missed payments reveal about consumers1999-level valuations meet 2007-level leverageGold, bonds and adapting to changing market conditionsAbout the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.Watch the video version on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@KeyAdvisors Connect with Key Advisors: keywealthmgmt.com Follow Eddie on X: x.com/commonsensebull Please note that the information and opinions presented in this podcast by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

The 10-year Treasury yield is above 5% and the Fed has turned hawkish. So why is Eddie Ghabour adding to tech?In Episode 9 of The Common Sense Bull, Eddie breaks down the portfolio positioning changes he and his team are making heading into the fourth quarter. He explains why he's rotating out of the defensive positions they put in place earlier this year and back into technology and semiconductors.Eddie explains why he believes the recent spike in yields could be entering its late innings, why the speed of the move matters more than whether yields remain above 5%, and what he's seeing in the market that has him adding to select areas of tech.He also walks through the fundamental and technical signals behind recent purchases, including individual stocks and ETFs, and lays out the conditions that would make him change course.This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.In this episode:Why a hawkish Fed and 5%+ yields didn't surprise Eddie and his teamWhat Eddie means by "rolling crashes" and why he's been rotating between sectorsWhy he believes the speed of rising yields is the biggest risk to the market right nowWhy yields don't necessarily need to fall below 5% for the market to broaden its rallyWhy market breadth is a concern even as the major indices remain near highsWhy Eddie is reversing the defensive rotation from May and JuneWhat he's seeing in semiconductors and technology that has him buying againWhy strong fundamentals plus technical confirmation gives the team conviction on a nameThe individual stocks and ETFs the team is using to gain tech exposureWhat could make the thesis wrong, including oil, Iran and a further rapid rise in yieldsAbout the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.Watch the video version on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@KeyAdvisors Connect with Key Advisors: keywealthmgmt.com Follow Eddie on X: x.com/commonsensebull Please note that the information and opinions presented in this podcast by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

Can the major indexes hold near their highs while entire sectors are already in bear markets? On this episode of The Common Sense Bull, Eddie Ghabour sits down with veteran market technician Gary Kaltbaum, who argues that they can, and that price action tends to move well before the bad news arrives.Gary walks through how he learned to read market patterns, why he puts the market first and everything else second, and what he's seeing underneath a headline index that's only a few percent off its highs: weakness across retail, airlines, cruise lines and hotels. From there, Eddie and Gary get into the concentration problem in today's market, the AI capex cycle and what happens when its rate of change slows, the circular financing that reminds Gary of 1999, and the more than $3 trillion in debt he sees building behind the AI trade. They work through the Federal Reserve and the 10-year, then close on the two things Gary is watching: yields and oil.This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.Recorded Monday, September 14, ahead of the Federal Reserve's decision. Eddie and Gary discuss what they believed the Fed should do, not what it did.In this episode:Why Gary calls himself a fundamental technical analyst, and what the fundamental filter rules outThe sectors already in bear markets while the headline indexes hold upWhat heavy concentration does to the biggest winners when a cycle turnsThe AI capex question Eddie sees as the real risk to the broader marketCircular financing, credit default swaps, and the debt building behind the AI tradeWhy Gary is watching the credit lenders, and what he says actually took markets down in 2008Why Eddie and Gary both thought a quarter-point hike was the less painful pathWhere the next market leaders tend to show up firstAbout the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.Watch the video version on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@KeyAdvisors Connect with Key Advisors: keywealthmgmt.com Follow Eddie on X: x.com/commonsensebull Please note that the information and opinions presented in this podcast by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.

September is, on average, the worst month of the year for stocks. So why isn't Ryan Detrick worried? Because nine of the ten worst Septembers on record came in years when the market was already down – and this one isn't.Eddie Ghabour is joined by Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist at Carson Group, for a data-heavy look at what the rest of 2026 could hold. Ryan walks through why September depends on how you're doing going into it, why he thinks the Fed stays on pause into the midterms, where he sees the AI trade going from here, and the contrarian call that yields are still too low. Eddie lays out how the Key Advisors team is positioned into the fall — the broadening trade, software over semiconductors, healthcare, and adding to gold on the drop after the Fed chair's speech.This is educational market commentary, not individual investment advice.In this episode:Why Carson's team called no recession in 2023, when the consensus forecast was a down yearThe September stat: 9 of the 10 worst came in years already down, 7 of the 10 best in years already upThe second quarter of a midterm year is historically the weakest of 16 quarters in a presidential cycle — and how this year broke the patternRyan's read on AI bubble fears, with hyperscaler capital spending near 2.8% of GDPWhy software took the baton from semiconductors, and what bank stocks above 2007 levels signalRyan’s contrarian call that the 10-year Treasury goes higher — and the level that changes the mathGold, copper, and why Ryan says to diversify your diversifier Whether the Fed hikes in September, and why a hike the market expects but doesn't get is net dovishHow Eddie is positioned into the fall, and why he'd treat a September selloff as an opportunityAbout the show: The Common Sense Bull publishes every other Thursday. Subscribe for clear, data-driven market commentary from an independent, fiduciary firm with 26 years navigating the markets.Watch the video version on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@KeyAdvisors Connect with Key Advisors: keywealthmgmt.com Follow Eddie on X: x.com/commonsensebull Please note that the information and opinions presented in this podcast by Eddie Ghabour and KEY Advisors Wealth Management, LLC are solely for educational purposes and should not be considered as personal financial advice. KEY Advisors highly recommends that any decisions and actions taken in your investment portfolio should be done with the help of a professional financial advisor. It's important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections may not necessarily reflect actual future performance. It's crucial to understand that all investments involve risk and may result in partial or total loss.