Zero Sum

Trump calls "tariff" the most beautiful word in the dictionary. So who is actually paying for it?Ryan James Boyle, Chief U.S. Economist at Northern Trust, has watched the trade war up close since he joined in 2017. He joins Harsh Vardhan on Zero Sum to explain:- what tariffs really are- why the US effective tariff rate has gone "from about two and a half... to 10 to 12"- how the IEEPA court rulings and Section 301 reshaped the tariff wall- what it all costs an ordinary householdHe also makes the case for free trade that, as he puts it, no one in Congress is making.5 TAKEAWAYS1. China isn't "cutting a check" to the US Treasury. US importers pay the tariff at the border. In the first trade war, Chinese exporters absorbed much of the cost through price concessions.2. Customs duties have more than doubled, but the economy hasn't changed shape. There has been no clear trend change in industrial production, manufacturing jobs or foreign direct investment, and the US is still import-dependent.3. The legal basis moved. Courts ruled that the emergency (IEEPA) powers didn't authorise tariffs, and refunds followed. Most tariffs now rest on Section 301, with 10% or 12.5% rates across 60 countries. Ryan expects them to stay.4. No bill arrives for the cost. Ryan cites research estimates of "$800, $1,000, $1,200" a year per household. It creeps in slowly, spread across everything you buy.5. The bigger risk may be availability, not prices. The US has become a "less reliable trade partner". Ryan worries about scarcity, from fertiliser to supply chains, and wants a real reckoning about what is being gambled "for an uncertain payout".CHAPTERS00:00 Intro: Who really pays for Trump's tariffs?01:39 What is a tariff, and why does Trump love it?04:10 Why didn't Biden undo Trump's tariffs?06:50 What have tariffs actually achieved?11:19 Will tariffs keep inflation high?16:39 Why did the courts strike down Trump's tariffs?22:51 How much do tariffs cost a US household?25:25 How has the world reacted to America's tariffs?29:27 Is America weaker, and where's the case for free trade?34:12 What is Ryan bullish and bearish on?38:00 What could surprise us in a post-Trump world?39:51 Curveball: what would Ryan do if he quit everything?LINKS- Ryan James Boyle on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/citizensforboyle/- Northern Trust economic research: https://www.ntrs.com/united-states/insights-research/economic-trends-insights- Invezz: https://invezz.com- Zero Sum on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/show/033dpr3QsbwFnriBSsdePG- Zero Sum on Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/zero-sum/id1895401085Disclaimer: This episode is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or legal advice. The views expressed by guests are their own and do not necessarily reflect those of Invezz or Northern Trust.#Tariffs #Trump #TradeWar #Economy #Inflation #ZEROSUM #Invezz

The US national debt has passed $40 trillion. Interest payments now exceed $1 trillion a year, inflation is squeezing households, and the stock market keeps hitting new highs. So how sustainable is the American economy, and who is actually benefiting from the system?In this episode of Zero Sum, Harsh speaks with Paul Musson, veteran investor, founder of Paddington Capital Management and author of Capital Offence, about the US debt crisis, Federal Reserve policy, wealth inequality, housing affordability and the growing disconnect between Wall Street & the real economy.Paul argues that decades of low interest rates, quantitative easing and policies designed to push asset prices higher have helped create a system that rewards existing asset owners while making it harder for younger generations to buy homes and build wealth.With the US national debt now above $40 trillion and the AI boom driving enormous investment and stock market optimism, could the same policies that supported markets also be creating the conditions for the next financial crisis?In this episode:🔹 US national debt: Why has America's debt passed $40 trillion?🔹 US debt crisis: Can America grow its way out of $40 trillion in debt?🔹 Federal Reserve: How do interest rates and money printing affect ordinary people?🔹 Inflation and financial repression: Is inflation being used to reduce government debt at the expense of savers?🔹 Wealth inequality: Are central banks making the rich richer and the middle class poorer?🔹 Housing affordability crisis: Why are younger generations struggling to buy homes in the US, Canada and the UK?🔹 AI bubble: Is the AI boom bigger than the dot-com bubble, and could it trigger a global stock market crash?🔹 Stock market crash: Why are stocks hitting record highs despite growing economic risks?🔹 How to invest $10,000: What does Paul Musser recommend for short-term savings and long-term investing?🔹 Gold vs stocks: Should investors hold gold as a hedge against inflation, money printing and financial repression?Paul also explains his philosophy on money, capital creation, free-market capitalism, and why he believes economic reform must address the causes of inequality rather than just the symptoms. He also shares his bullish, bearish, and wildcard views on the economy, housing prices, and the future of financial markets.Find out more about Paul Musson and his book, Capital Offence: Why Some Benefit at Your Expense.Capital Offence: Why Some Benefit at Your Expense: https://www.amazon.co.uk/Capital-Offence-Some-Benefit-Expense/dp/1917458045Paul's website: https://pauliticaleconomy.com/Instagram: / pauliticaleconomy X: https://x.com/pauliticalblogLinkedIn: / pauliticaleconomyThis video is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. The views expressed are those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the views of Zero Sum or its affiliates. Always do your own research before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results.#USDebt #FederalReserve #InvestingMusic from Uppbeat: License code: 2NYDXCEU2IIVVYVZThe content on Zero Sum is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The views expressed are those of the hosts and guests, and due diligence should be done before acting on anything you hear here.

Anthropic IPO live updates: https://invezz.com/invest/anthropic-ipo/Anthropic's CEO says AI could pose an existential risk to humanity. At almost exactly the same time, the company is preparing for what could become one of the biggest IPOs in history, with a valuation potentially reaching $2 trillion.So what exactly is Anthropic worth?Anthropic is reportedly targeting a valuation of more than $2 trillion, despite reporting a $42 billion net loss in 2025, while revenue surged to almost $4.6 billion. The company is also preparing for hundreds of billions of dollars in future computing and infrastructure commitments as it races to develop Claude and compete at the frontier of artificial intelligence.In this episode:🔹 Anthropic IPO: Everything You Need to Know🔹 Anthropic IPO date: When will Anthropic go public?🔹 Anthropic stock: Can you buy Anthropic shares?🔹 Is Anthropic really worth $2T?🔹 How much is Anthropic actually worth?🔹 Dario Amodei: Why is the Anthropic CEO warning that AI could wipe out humanity?🔹 Anthropic AI safety: Why is Anthropic warning about AI risks before its IPO?🔹 Anthropic vs OpenAI: Which AI company will win the AI race?🔹 AI bubble: Are AI stocks and AI companies overvalued?🔹 AI stocks crash: What happens if the AI bubble bursts?CHAPTERS:00:00 - Anthropic IPO: Is Anthropic Worth $2 Trillion?01:51 - Anthropic IPO: Why Is Anthropic Going Public?03:20 - Anthropic AI Safety: Why Does Anthropic Want AI To Slow Down?04:30 - Anthropic IPO vs AI Safety: Does The IPO Contradict Its Warning?05:10 - Anthropic Valuation: Is Anthropic Building An AI Moat?06:43 - Anthropic $2 Trillion Valuation: How Did Anthropic Become Worth $2T?07:41 - Anthropic Stock: Who Decides What Anthropic Is Worth?08:22 - SpaceX IPO: What Can Anthropic Learn From SpaceX?09:28 - Anthropic Stock: What Happens When Shares Unlock?09:54 - Anthropic Valuation: How Do You Value An AI Company?11:20 - Anthropic IPO: Can Anthropic Justify Its $2 Trillion Valuation?12:05 - AI Safety: Could AI Actually Wipe Out Humanity?13:04 - AI Bubble: Is The AI Industry Funding Itself?14:05 - AI Stocks: Are Investors Too Optimistic About AI?15:37 - AI Development: Is AI Starting To Build Itself?16:04 - AI Stocks Crash: Could AI Cause A Stock Market Crash?17:20 - Meta AI: Why Did Meta's AI Agent Move The Market?17:45 - AI Stocks: Is AI Destroying The SaaS Industry?18:32 - Nasdaq 10020:47 - AI Models: Will AI Become A Commodity?21:32 - AI Investing: Will People Actually Pay For AI?23:02 - Will AI Become A Monthly Subscription?24:02 - Which AI Companies Will Win?25:39 - SaaS Apocalypse26:40 - Anthropic vs OpenAI27:11 - Anthropic vs Meta: Which AI Business Model Wins?29:30 - Can Chinese AI Companies Undercut Anthropic?30:44 - Chinese AI: Could Cheap AI Crash AI Stocks?31:26 - AI Data Privacy: Should You Be Worried About AI Data Collection?33:16 - AI Privacy: How Much Does AI Know About You?35:05 - AI Liability: Could AI Companies Face Huge Liability Costs?36:17 - AI Regulation: Will Governments Regulate Artificial Intelligence?37:44 - UK AI: Can The UK Compete In The AI Race?39:10 - US vs China AI: Will The World Be Split Between US And China?41:20 - Anthropic IPO: Should You Invest In Anthropic?42:20 - Anthropic Stock: What Should Investors Watch After The IPO?44:40 - David Morrison's Bullish, Bearish & Wildcard48:02 - CurveballFind out more about David Morrison and Trade Nation here: https://tradenation.com/Music from Uppbeat: License code: 2NYDXCEU2IIVVYVZThe content on Zero Sum is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The views expressed are those of the hosts and guests and due diligence should be done before acting on anything you hear here.Sources:https://invezz.com/invest/anthropic-ipo/https://invezz.com/news/2026/09/29/anthropic-ipo-filing-warns-its-ai-could-blackmail-manipulate-and-threaten-humanity/

Has the Trump Presidency changed US stock markets forever? | David Morrison, Trade NationThe Trump presidency is changing the way investors think about US stock markets. From tariffs and Trump’s Truth Social posts to government stakes in major companies, the AI boom and prediction markets, politics and financial markets have never been more closely connected.In this episode of Zero Sum, Harsh speaks with David Morrison, Senior Market Analyst at Trade Nation and regular Invezz columnist, about how Donald Trump is changing financial markets, whether traditional investing fundamentals still matter, and what investors should watch next.They discuss Trump’s tariffs, social media influence, early access to market-moving information, government investment in companies including Intel, and the growing influence of US policy on companies such as Nvidia.The conversation also explores the Trump administration’s impact on the AI trade, interest rates, the US dollar and competition with China. Harsh and David examine whether a change in government could trigger an AI bubble burst and whether today’s market has similarities with the dot-com bubble, meme stocks and crypto.They also discuss prediction markets, political risk, portfolio management, market concentration, leverage and what could happen if the AI trade begins to unwind.David finishes by revealing his bullish, bearish and wildcard market views, including US Treasuries, Bitcoin and the AI trade.In this episode:Trump and the stock market: Has Donald Trump permanently changed US financial markets?Trump tariffs and investing: How investors learned to interpret Trump’s tariff threats.Trump Truth Social posts: How presidential social media posts can move financial markets.Trump and market volatility: Why politics now has a much more direct impact on investors.Trump and government investments: Why the US government is taking stakes in companies including Intel and other strategically important businesses.Nvidia and China: How US policy and the China trade war could affect Nvidia and the AI industry.Trump and the AI boom: How interest rates, the US dollar and government policy could influence AI stocks.AI bubble: Could a change in government cause the AI trade to collapse?Prediction markets: Are political betting markets changing the way people invest?Stock market crash risk: What could happen if AI market concentration and leverage unwind?Bitcoin price outlook: Why David is bearish on Bitcoin in the short term but bullish over the long term.Bullish, bearish and wildcard market views: David reveals his key market bets.Find out more about David Morrison and Trade Nation here:https://tradenation.com/en-eu/knowledgebase/authors/david-morrison/Music from Uppbeat: License code: Q9GELZCLZH1PWACEThe content on Zero Sum is provided for informational and entertainment purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. The views expressed are those of the hosts and guests, and due diligence should be done before acting on anything you hear here.#Trump #StockMarket #Investing #AIStocks #Bitcoin #PredictionMarkets #USMarkets #Finance

What happens when a routine Treasury debt operation sends gold and Bitcoin higher, while the dollar weakens? Is the market seeing a genuine return of the “debasement trade”, or are investors reading too much into a change in how the US government manages its debt?On August 19, the US Treasury announced it would double the size of its long-term debt buybacks. Within days, gold was making three-month highs and Bitcoin had jumped more than 20%. But a Treasury buyback is not the same thing as quantitative easing, and understanding that distinction is key to understanding what markets are actually pricing in.In this episode of Invest Zero Sum, Harsh V sits down with Alexander Lis, Chief Investment Officer at SDV, to unpack the debasement trade, Treasury buybacks, QE, inflation, interest rates and what the latest moves could mean for gold, Bitcoin, crypto and stocks.Find out more about Alexander & his work with SDV here: https://sdventures.ai/### In this episode:🔹 **What is the debasement trade?** Alexander explains what investors actually mean when they talk about debasement and why the narrative has become so popular.🔹 **Is a Treasury buyback the same as QE?** We break down the difference between Treasury debt management and quantitative easing, including how the operations are funded.🔹 **Why did gold and Bitcoin jump?** If no new money is entering the system, why did markets react so strongly?🔹 **Is the crypto rally real?** We look at positioning, volatility and whether Bitcoin and other crypto assets could give back their gains if the current sentiment fades.🔹 **What happens if the debasement trade unwinds?** Alexander explains why crypto could face the most pain, while gold and growth stocks could also be affected.🔹 **What should investors watch next?** From the September FOMC meeting and August CPI to the next Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement, we discuss the events that could shape the next move in markets.Alexander also reveals what he is currently **bullish, bearish and watching as his wild card**, before discussing how he switches off from the world of finance, markets and news.CHAPTERS:00:01:42 What exactly is the debasement trade?00:03:28 Is a Treasury buyback the same as QE?00:05:13 Why did gold and Bitcoin jump?00:07:53 Is the crypto rally actually real?00:09:12 What happens to rates and the dollar next?00:10:35 Could the US become the next Japan?00:12:05 What trade gets crushed if debasement unwinds?00:13:26 What should investors watch before the buybacks start?00:14:29 What will the Fed do next?00:16:06 Why does monetary policy matter to everyone?00:17:33 What are you bullish, bearish and watching?00:19:19 How does a CIO switch off?00:22:00 The final takeawayMusic from Uppbeat:License code: Q9GELZCLZH1PWACEDISCLAIMER:The information discussed in this episode is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.#Investing #Trading #Gold #Bitcoin #Crypto #Stocks #Finance