Red Start Journal

The fake rich are everywhere: +1,000% screenshots, "I quit my job at 24", one trade that changed a life. This episode is about survivorship bias, and the number money content never shows you: how many people tried the same thing and lost.We start with a coin-flip thought experiment: 1,000 people, 10 flips, 1 "genius". Then the cleverest version of the mistake: Abraham Wald and the bombers that never came back in the Second World War. Then the real numbers. Under EU rules (ESMA, 2018), every CFD broker has to print the share of its own clients who lose money: between 74 and 89 out of 100 when ESMA first looked. A study of day traders in Brazil found that 97 out of 100 who kept going for more than 300 days lost money. Even professional fund rankings leave out the funds that closed. Finally: why trading influencers rarely post their losses, and the one question to ask about any screenshot: out of how many?Watch the video version with the archive film on YouTube: https://youtu.be/N89WRAowqsEChapters00:00 The fake rich are everywhere00:42 Part I · The feed: 1,000 people flip a coin01:46 Part II · The missing planes: Abraham Wald and survivorship bias03:08 Part III · The small print: how many CFD traders lose money04:16 Do day traders get better? 97 out of 100 lost money04:57 The professionals: fund rankings without the funds that closed05:42 Part IV · The business: what comes after the screenshot06:37 Part V · The denominatorSourcesESMA product intervention on CFDs and the standard risk warning (2018)Chague, De Losso and Giovannetti, "Day Trading for a Living?" (FGV EESP working paper, 2019)S&P Dow Jones Indices, SPIVA Europe Scorecard (fund survivorship)Abraham Wald, Statistical Research Group, Columbia University (1943)Music: original score by Red Start Journal.My experiment, not investment advice. I'm not telling you what to buy, sell or borrow.