Claim Ownershiptastylive: Macro Money
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In this brand-new show, tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak covers the economic, geopolitical, and market themes of the day.
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A ceasefire in Gaza seemed key as gold and crude oil prices sank, but why did stocks fall too? Is the US dollar really to blame?
tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak breaks down what happened as stocks and gold prices recoiled from record highs together, and previews what's ahead when US consumer confidence data hits the wires.
Stocks dropped before September's FOMC meeting minutes hit the wires as Fed officials sent mixed signals about what comes next. tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak breaks down what price action on Wall Street and across bonds, currencies, and commodities seems to be saying amid Fed rate cut speculation.
Is the US government shutdown secretly good for stocks because the disruption in economic data means markets don't have to see news challenging Fed rate cut bets? tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak weighs up what price action across stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities seems to be saying as the US government shutdown drags on, then previews the macro event risk lining up to shape what's next.
The Fed tied rate cuts to worries about US jobs. Now, stocks and the dollar hang in the balance as the markets prepare for US employment data to test the central bank's resolve. tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak previews the week ahead and considers how stocks, bonds, rates, currencies, and commodities might fare as flurry of event risk culminates in a much-anticipated update on the US labor market.
Stocks are falling alongside gold prices while the US dollar is back on offense against major currencies. Are the markets finally ready for a trend change? tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak breaks down price action across major markets in the wake of another speech from Fed Chair Powell and cooling US PMI data and considers what this might mean from here.
The stock market pushed up to another record high after the Fed cut rates despite rising inflation. What can possibly go wrong? tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak previews the week ahead, highlighting the latest S&P Global PMI data and the Fed's favored PCE inflation gauge.
What did the markets really think after Fed rate cut arrived as expected? Price action across US stocks, bonds, gold, and the US dollar seem to hint at what's next. tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak breaks down the policy update from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and considers why traders' response may be signaling that a major inflection point across key markets has arrived.
US stocks hit a record high as traders geared up for a widely expected Fed rate cut. With the move already priced in, is the market reaction done already? tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak previews the FOMC monetary policy announcement and considers how Fed Chair Powell and company can still jolt prices.
Will the Federal Reserve finally give the markets what they want this week? Traders will probably look beyond a widely expected rate cut to focus on what comes next. tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak previews the week ahead and considers what may happen if the US central bank resists embracing traders' dovish forecasting. Rate decisions from the Bank of England (BOE), the Bank of Japan (BOJ), and the Bank of Canada (BOC) are also due.
Risk is heightened in the markets, with equities, gold, bonds, and volatility trending positively. Tesla (TSLA) sees a notable stock increase, spurred by CEO Elon Musk's renewed involvement. The talk around a potential TikTok deal suggests possible benefits for Oracle (ORCL). The transcript highlights upcoming retail sales data and the FOMC's rate decision, emphasizing the market's anticipation of volatility in a largely quiet earnings week. Risk management strategies and recent IPO options trading also receive attention.
On today’s From Theory to Practice, the market prepares for the upcoming FOMC meeting this Wednesday, where The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25bps. In preparation for lower rates, stocks, bonds, and metals are all rallying. In his portfolio, Dr. Jim adjusts his PANW Short Strangle, and he adds a new trade in PEP, which has a surprisingly high IVR - with earnings nearly a month away.
The market measure segment addressed strategy for breached option strikes, showing that rolling untested sides outperforms both closing positions immediately (36% win rate) or holding to expiration (73% win rate). Rolling can increase win rates to 78% while reducing delta exposure and adding credit, though at the cost of maximum profit potential.
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