tastylive: Today's Assignment

Hosts Liz and Tony welcomed researcher Kai to analyze an exceptionally volatile week driven by broad market pullback rather than specific events. Thursday's dramatic action featured NVIDIA's positive earnings followed by 1.5% initial rally that completely reversed into 3% sell-off, creating the third-largest open-to-close downside move on record at 199 points. Kai's zero-DTE analysis revealed that mechanical 20-delta $20-wide iron condors closed profitably before 10:30am on four of five trading days, with only Thursday's relentless selling (no dip-buying) resulting in max loss. The hosts noted the 10:30am timeframe potentially coincides with European market close, creating natural inflection points. Earnings season statistics deteriorated to 47% winners with -0.3% average returns (down from typical 50-50 split), suggesting weaker-than-expected results. AMD led decliners down 15% with 48 IV rank creating opportunities, while Google rallied $12 toward new highs. The abbreviated Thanksgiving week features limited earnings (BABA, Best Buy) with markets closing Thursday and early Friday.

The discussion highlighted earnings season strategies, noting volatility typically increases fourfold on earnings days. Recommended approaches included defined-risk strategies like iron condors with position sizing at 5% of account value, and treating earnings plays as "engagement trades" with smaller allocations than standard positions.

Hosts Nick and Tony conducted an intense What's Your Assumption session focused on managing extreme intraday volatility ahead of NVIDIA earnings, with Nick executing multiple rapid NASDAQ futures scalps. The session opened with Nick demonstrating TastyFX platform features showing his painful Euro-JPY position but emphasizing small sizing discipline to withstand 500-buck moves. The QQQ trade featured a dynamic iron condor with 20-point wide put spread versus 10-point wide call spread at $4.75, with Nick getting filled as NASDAQ rallied 15 handles opposite his needed direction due to expanding volatility. The NASDAQ futures scalping showcased extreme conditions - Nick bought at 111, sold at 99 (20-handle gain in seconds), then bought back at 70 capturing another leg as markets whipsawed. Multiple passes included MSTR iron condor (Nick advocating directional spreads over neutral in volatile stocks), Chipotle 27-35 strangle (too cheap for Tony's underwater position), Dash (December markets $1.50 wide deemed untradeable), and EEM where Nick opted for 100 shares of stock at $52 rather than selling $1 January puts for minimal premium.

Hosts Nick and Tony conducted a position management-focused What's Your Assumption session as markets reversed dramatically from morning weakness. The session opened with Nick demonstrating TastyFX platform features showing his painful Euro-Japanese Yen position up 500 bucks but held due to small sizing discipline, emphasizing the importance of avoiding additions into losses. The primary activity involved rolling the zero-day SPX iron condor's 6585 short puts up to 6620 for $2.65 additional credit (now at $7.50 total) given the 120-handle rally, with Nick placing GTC order at $6.75 to close. New positions included long MCL micro crude futures supporting viewer's USO bullish thesis and QS December 12 puts at $1.08 for tiny $108 capital commitment. Multiple passes included IBIT-MSTR pair trade (too complex for shares, already long IBIT), Amazon (already positioned with 220 puts and diagonal spread), Tesla put diagonal (Nick passing after $10 rally with 18 IV rank), and ARKK (untradeable markets with hard-to-borrow stock creating distorted call prices). The Lululemon 140 put/185-200 call ratio spread attempt at $4.75 highlighted challenges of wide markets (dollar-wide spreads) deemed "not Johnny approved" for smaller accounts.