tastylive: Best Practices

Stock markets melted down amid US-China trade war escalation, then seesawed sharply higher. Is the selloff already over or just starting? tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak breaks down two days of violent price action across global markets and considers what is likely to shape what comes next in the week ahead.

A ceasefire in Gaza seemed key as gold and crude oil prices sank, but why did stocks fall too? Is the US dollar really to blame? tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak breaks down what happened as stocks and gold prices recoiled from record highs together, and previews what's ahead when US consumer confidence data hits the wires.

Stocks dropped before September's FOMC meeting minutes hit the wires as Fed officials sent mixed signals about what comes next. tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak breaks down what price action on Wall Street and across bonds, currencies, and commodities seems to be saying amid Fed rate cut speculation.

Is the US government shutdown secretly good for stocks because the disruption in economic data means markets don't have to see news challenging Fed rate cut bets? tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak weighs up what price action across stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities seems to be saying as the US government shutdown drags on, then previews the macro event risk lining up to shape what's next.

The Fed tied rate cuts to worries about US jobs. Now, stocks and the dollar hang in the balance as the markets prepare for US employment data to test the central bank's resolve. tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak previews the week ahead and considers how stocks, bonds, rates, currencies, and commodities might fare as flurry of event risk culminates in a much-anticipated update on the US labor market.

Stocks are falling alongside gold prices while the US dollar is back on offense against major currencies. Are the markets finally ready for a trend change? tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak breaks down price action across major markets in the wake of another speech from Fed Chair Powell and cooling US PMI data and considers what this might mean from here.

The stock market pushed up to another record high after the Fed cut rates despite rising inflation. What can possibly go wrong? tastylive's Head of Global Macro Ilya Spivak previews the week ahead, highlighting the latest S&P Global PMI data and the Fed's favored PCE inflation gauge.

A tastylive market analysis reveals that extreme market movements often lead to counter-trend moves the following day, challenging the "trend is your friend" adage. After examining 10 years of data across 40 tickers, researchers found that following a two standard deviation upward move, markets show a 58% probability of reversing downward the next day a significant shift from the normal 45% probability. The asymmetry is notable: 74% of studied tickers demonstrated mean reversion after substantial rallies, while only 58% bounced after major declines. Apple shows a particularly strong 15% tendency to fade after rallies, prompting Tom Sosnoff to immediately sell Apple stock during the segment based on its recent extreme upward movement. The findings support a contrarian approach rather than momentum trading, though researchers caution that position sizing should reflect the speculative nature of these probabilities.

Host Tom (after sharing his weekend rib cooking charity event story) explored synthetically equivalent option strategies that share identical risk profiles when using matching strikes and expirations. The four key pairs include covered calls versus naked puts (both ~75% success rate but different Delta exposures), long/short spreads in opposite directions, ratio spreads versus jade lizards (both three-legged with naked short options), and diagonals versus poor man's covered calls. However, Tom emphasized that while these strategies are theoretically equivalent, practical implementation differs significantly - traders typically use 30 Delta for covered calls, expected move strikes for naked puts, and optimize durations based on market conditions rather than strict equivalence. The key insight was that understanding synthetic relationships helps with portfolio management and adjustments, but optimal strike selection and market timing matter more than pure theoretical equivalence.

Hosts Tom and Tony welcomed researcher Kai to discuss a week where the Fed's 25 basis point rate cut led to counter-intuitive market moves, with bond yields rising and dollar strengthening in the three sessions following the decision. All major indices posted gains of 1.2-2.2%, culminating in simultaneous record highs Friday - the first time all four hit new peaks together since November 2021, just two months before the major 2022 decline began. Tom noted he's currently short two of the four indices but remains positioned with bonds and yen trades that have worked in his favor. The discussion included Tom's nuanced stance on corporate ownership versus management, defending his continued TikTok usage while avoiding Tesla based on his distinction between operators and owners. Upcoming earnings include Micron Tuesday and Costco Thursday, with Tom holding positions in both but noting MU's unpredictable earnings history.