“🟩 Airspace closed over Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine talks continue, DeepSeek reaches gold IMO level || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #48/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Description
Executive summary
Top items:
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Geopolitics: Donald Trump announced that the airspace above Venezuela has been closed, but the US has not struck Venezuelan territory. Iran's President repeated his warning that the country's capital may need to be relocated because of water shortages. And talks about bringing the Russia-Ukraine conflict to an end continue.
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Tech and AI: Anthropic released its latest model, Claude Opus 4.5, and says it's getting harder to rule out that its models are crossing some dangerous thresholds. DeepSeek released a model that reached gold level in the International Mathematics Olympiad.
Forecasts:
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Forecasters believe there's a 6.4% (5.0% to 10%) probability that at least 500K people will be evacuated from Iran's capital Tehran by the end of January 2026.
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They think there's a 55% (30% to 71%) chance that the US military will attack Venezuelan territory by the end of 2025.
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And they assign a 69% (40% to 81%) chance to Venezuelan President Maduro being out of power by the end of March 2026.
Geopolitics
Europe
Talks about a potential peace deal between Russia and Ukraine continue, with US officials in discussions with both sides. US Army Secretary Dan [...]
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Outline:
(00:20 ) Executive summary
(01:40 ) Geopolitics
(01:43 ) Europe
(02:37 ) The Americas
(02:40 ) Latin America
(04:03 ) United States
(05:42 ) Middle East
(07:09 ) Asia
(08:15 ) Africa
(08:59 ) Technology and artificial intelligence
(10:54 ) Biorisk
(11:01 ) Climate and Nature
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First published:
December 1st, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/airspace-closed-over-venezuela-russia
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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