“🟩 Rising China-Japan tensions, Iran seizes oil tanker, AI-directed cyberattacks disrupted || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #46/2025” by Nuño Sempere, belikewater, Vidur Kapur, Tolga Bilge
Description
Executive summary
Top items:
-
Geopolitics: The Japanese PM said that any Chinese invasion of Taiwan could potentially prompt a Japanese intervention. Pakistan accused India and then Afghan nationals of being behind a terror attack. Iran seized a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz, while the Houthis signalled an end to their attacks on vessels in the Red Sea.
-
Tech and AI: Anthropic said that it disrupted an AI-orchestrated cyber espionage campaign.
-
Economy: The President of the New York Federal Reserve convened an emergency meeting with top Wall Street dealers to discuss signs of stress in money markets.
Forecasts:
-
Forecasters estimate that there's a 61% (45% to 75%) chance that the governments of Pakistan and Afghanistan will resume peace talks by the end of March 2026.
-
They think there's a 70% (50% to 90%) chance that the Houthis will refrain from attacking ships in the Red Sea through the end of March 2026.
-
They believe there's a 73% (50% to 90%) chance that the US will carry out an attack on Venezuelan territory before the end of 2025, and a 47% (20% to 70%) chance that Nicolás Maduro will still be [...]
---
Outline:
(00:21 ) Executive summary
(01:51 ) Geopolitics
(01:54 ) Asia
(04:44 ) Middle East
(06:50 ) The Americas
(06:53 ) Latin America
(09:23 ) United States
(10:26 ) Africa
(10:37 ) Europe
(11:04 ) Technology and artificial intelligence
(13:28 ) Economy
(14:20 ) Biorisks
(14:50 ) Climate
---
First published:
November 17th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/rising-china-japan-tensions-iran
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
United States
