“🟩 Ukraine peace plan, US continues activity around Venezuela, state AI regulation moratorium round 2 || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #47/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Description
Executive summary
We’re a group of top forecasters who parse millions of news pieces a week to identify and discuss the most important warning signs of global catastrophic risks for you. Here are our top items and forecasts for this week
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Geopolitics: The US proposes a peace plan favorable to Russia, and Ukraine and the EU push back. US military activities around Venezuela continue.
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Forecasters believe there's a 25% chance (20% to 30%) that face-to-face negotiations between Russian and Ukrainian officials will happen before February 2026, and a 26% chance (15% to 40%) that both Russia and Ukraine will announce that they have agreed to a ceasefire of any duration, covering all of Ukrainian and Russian territory, by the end of March 2026.
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They estimate that there's a 71% chance (42% to 85%) that the US military carries out an attack on Venezuelan territory before 2026, and a 51% chance (20% to 70%) that Maduro will still be in power in Venezuela at the end of March 2026.
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Tech and AI: The Trump administration wants to restrict the ability of individual US states to regulate AI. Gemini 3 was released. We updated [...]
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Outline:
(00:21 ) Executive summary
(02:45 ) Geopolitics
(02:48 ) Europe
(05:35 ) The Americas
(05:37 ) Latin America
(08:39 ) United States
(09:26 ) Middle East
(10:37 ) Asia
(10:46 ) Technology and artificial intelligence
(14:26 ) Economy
(15:29 ) Biorisks
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First published:
November 24th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/ukraine-peace-plan-us-continues-activity
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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