“🟩US signals diminished role in NATO, Russia-Ukraine talks falter, Hassett likely to become next Fed chair || Global Risks Weekly Roundup #49/2025” by Nuño Sempere, Vidur Kapur, belikewater, Tolga Bilge
Description
Executive summary
Top items:
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Geopolitics: US-Russia and US-Ukraine talks did not produce an immediate resolution to the ongoing war in Ukraine. The Trump administration wants Europe to take over most of NATO's conventional military responsibilities by 2027.
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Tech and AI: OpenAI launched its alignment blog, and confirmed that they are researching how to safely develop and deploy models capable of recursive self-improvement.
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Economy: Rumours swirl that Kevin Hassett will be announced as the next chair of the Federal Reserve, with Trump singling him out as the potential pick.
Forecasts:
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Considering the flurry of recent model releases from the likes of Google, Anthropic and DeepSeek, forecasters updated their estimates on which company they think will be ‘in the lead’ over the next year or so. They estimated the following relatively casual probabilities over who will top Epoch's Capabilities Index on December 31, 2026: Google: 42% (20% to 55%); OpenAI 35% (25% to 45%); Anthropic: 8% (5% to 30%); Others: 13% (8% to 25%).
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Meanwhile, they think there's a 21% (10% to 35%) probability that a humanoid robot will be reported to have been used in combat by the end of 2026.
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[...]
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Outline:
(00:20 ) Executive summary
(02:30 ) Geopolitics
(02:33 ) Europe
(05:08 ) Asia
(07:06 ) Middle East
(07:27 ) The Americas
(08:46 ) United States
(10:22 ) Africa
(11:16 ) Technology and artificial intelligence
(13:41 ) Economy
(14:31 ) Biorisk
(14:42 ) Climate and Nature
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First published:
December 8th, 2025
Source:
https://blog.sentinel-team.org/p/us-signals-diminished-role-in-nato
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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