“AGI by 2032 is extremely unlikely” by Yarrow Bouchard🔸
Description
Note: This is a fairly rough post I adapted from some comments I recently wrote that I worked hard enough on that I figured I should probably make them into a post. So, although this post is technically not a draft, it isn't written how I would write a post — it's less polished and more off the cuff. If you think I should remove the Draft Amnesty tag, please say so, and I will!
I very, very strongly believe there's essentially no chance of artificial general intelligence (AGI) being developed within the next 7 years.[1] Previously, I wrote a succinct list of reasons to doubt near-term AGI here. For example, it might come as a surprise that around three quarters of AI experts don’t think scaling up large language models (LLMs) will lead to AGI!
For a more technical and theoretical view (from someone with better [...]
---
Outline:
(01:23 ) Clarification of terms
(02:50 ) Some recent AI predictions that turned out to be wrong
(03:54 ) Benchmarks do not test general intelligence
(05:51 ) AI in the economy
(07:51 ) AI vs. puzzles
(08:28 ) Problems with scaling up LLMs
(09:45 ) Agentic AI is unsuccessful
(11:01 ) Conclusion
---
First published:
October 16th, 2025
Source:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/sQSCqpm9Ymwiu8rdb/agi-by-2032-is-extremely-unlikely
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
United States
