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“If We Think There’s a Trump Cult Already …”

“If We Think There’s a Trump Cult Already …”

Update: 2024-05-312
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This episode of Matter of Opinion discusses the historic conviction of Donald Trump on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the hush money case. The hosts, Patrick Healey, Michelle Goldberg, and David French, analyze the verdict's implications for the upcoming presidential election and Trump's future. They discuss the strength of the prosecution's case, the key witnesses, and the potential impact of the conviction on swing voters. The hosts also debate the likelihood of Trump serving jail time and the potential for an appeal. They conclude that the verdict is a significant moment in American politics, but the ultimate outcome of Trump's influence will be decided at the ballot box.

Outlines

00:00:00
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00:00:31
Trump Convicted on All 34 Counts

This Chapter discusses the historic conviction of Donald Trump on all 34 felony counts of falsifying business records in the hush money case. The hosts discuss the significance of the verdict, the strength of the prosecution's case, and the potential impact on the upcoming presidential election.

00:16:44
Impact of the Verdict on Swing Voters

This Chapter explores the potential impact of Trump's conviction on swing voters in the upcoming election. The hosts discuss the likelihood of the verdict changing voters' minds and the potential for it to be a decisive factor in the election.

00:21:10
The Appeal and its Potential Impact

This Chapter focuses on the potential for an appeal of Trump's conviction and the potential impact of such an appeal on the election and Trump's future. The hosts discuss the possibility of the conviction being overturned and the potential for a negative development if that occurs.

Keywords

Donald Trump


Donald John Trump is an American politician, media personality, and businessman who served as the 45th president of the United States from 2017 to 2021. He was born and raised in the New York City borough of Queens and received an economics degree from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. Trump took charge of his family's real-estate business in 1971, renamed it The Trump Organization, and expanded its operations from Queens and Brooklyn into Manhattan. The company built or renovated skyscrapers, hotels, casinos, and golf courses. Trump later started various side ventures, mostly by licensing his name. Trump and his businesses have been involved in more than 4,000 state and federal legal actions, including six bankruptcies. Trump entered the 2016 presidential race as a Republican and defeated 16 other candidates in the primaries. His political positions have been described as populist, protectionist, isolationist, and nationalist. He won the general election against Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton, despite losing the popular vote. Trump's presidency was marked by controversy, including his policies on immigration, trade, and foreign policy. He was impeached by the House of Representatives in 2019 for abuse of power and obstruction of Congress, but was acquitted by the Senate. He was impeached again in 2021 for inciting the January 6th attack on the U.S. Capitol, but was again acquitted by the Senate. Trump's presidency was also marked by the COVID-19 pandemic, which he downplayed and mismanaged. He lost the 2020 presidential election to Democratic nominee Joe Biden. Trump has continued to make false claims about the election being stolen from him and has hinted at a possible run for president in 2024. He is a controversial figure who has been accused of racism, sexism, and xenophobia. He is also known for his flamboyant personality and his use of social media.

Hush Money Case


The hush money case against Donald Trump refers to a series of payments made to adult film actress Stormy Daniels and former Playboy model Karen McDougal in the lead-up to the 2016 presidential election. The payments were made to silence the women from publicly disclosing alleged affairs they had with Trump. The case was investigated by the Manhattan District Attorney's Office, which ultimately indicted Trump on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. The indictment alleged that Trump and his lawyer, Michael Cohen, had falsified business records to conceal the payments to Daniels and McDougal, and that they had done so with the intent to influence the 2016 election. Trump was found guilty on all 34 counts in April 2023.

Falsifying Business Records


Falsifying business records is a crime that involves intentionally making false entries in business records or altering existing records to conceal or misrepresent the truth. This can include creating fake invoices, altering sales figures, or changing dates or amounts on financial statements. The specific elements of the crime vary by jurisdiction, but generally involve the intent to deceive or defraud. Falsifying business records can be a misdemeanor or a felony, depending on the severity of the offense and the amount of money involved. In the case of Donald Trump, he was convicted of falsifying business records in connection with the hush money payments made to Stormy Daniels and Karen McDougal. The prosecution argued that Trump and his lawyer, Michael Cohen, had falsified business records to conceal the payments and that they had done so with the intent to influence the 2016 election.

Presidential Election


The presidential election is a quadrennial event in the United States in which citizens elect the president and vice president. The election process involves a series of primaries and caucuses, followed by a general election in which the candidates from each major party compete for the presidency. The candidate who wins the majority of electoral votes is declared the winner. The presidential election is a highly contested event that often has significant implications for the country's future. The 2024 presidential election is expected to be a close race, with Donald Trump potentially running against incumbent Joe Biden. The outcome of the election will have a significant impact on the country's political landscape and its direction on issues such as the economy, healthcare, and foreign policy.

Swing Voters


Swing voters are voters who are not firmly committed to either major political party and are therefore considered to be up for grabs in an election. They are often considered to be the deciding factor in close elections, as their votes can determine the outcome. Swing voters are typically located in swing states, which are states that are not reliably Democratic or Republican and are therefore considered to be crucial in presidential elections. Swing voters are often influenced by a variety of factors, including the economy, social issues, and the candidates' personalities. The impact of Trump's conviction on swing voters is a key topic of discussion in this episode, as the hosts explore the potential for the verdict to sway voters in the upcoming election.

Q&A

  • What are the potential implications of Trump's conviction for the upcoming presidential election?

    The hosts discuss the potential impact of Trump's conviction on swing voters and the likelihood of it changing voters' minds. They also consider the possibility of the conviction being a decisive factor in the election, particularly in close races.

  • What are the chances of Trump serving jail time for his conviction?

    The hosts debate the likelihood of Trump serving jail time, considering factors such as the severity of the conviction, his lack of remorse, and the potential for an appeal. They acknowledge that the verdict increases the chances of jail time, but ultimately believe that the outcome will depend on the judge's sentencing decision.

  • How might the appeal process impact Trump's future and the election?

    The hosts discuss the potential for an appeal of Trump's conviction and the potential impact of such an appeal on the election and Trump's future. They express concern about the possibility of the conviction being overturned and the potential for a negative development if that occurs.

  • What is the significance of Trump's conviction on all 34 counts?

    The hosts highlight the significance of Trump's conviction on all 34 counts, emphasizing that it demonstrates a thorough and comprehensive prosecution. They also discuss the potential impact of this conviction on Trump's future legal battles and his ability to evade accountability.

  • How might the verdict impact the disengaged voters who are crucial to the election?

    The hosts discuss the potential for Trump's conviction to break through to disengaged voters, who are often considered to be Biden's weakness. They argue that the simple fact of Trump's conviction could be a powerful message that resonates with these voters, even if they are not closely following the news.

  • What is the long-term impact of Trump's conviction on American unity and the legitimacy of institutions?

    The hosts discuss the potential long-term impact of Trump's conviction on American unity and the legitimacy of institutions. They acknowledge that the verdict could further divide the country, but also express hope that it could help to restore faith in the justice system and hold Trump accountable for his actions.

  • What is the role of the ballot box in determining Trump's fate?

    The hosts emphasize that the ultimate outcome of Trump's influence will be decided at the ballot box, regardless of the legal proceedings. They argue that the election will be the true test of Trump's staying power in American politics.

  • What is the potential impact of Trump winning the election despite his convictions?

    The hosts discuss the potential impact of Trump winning the election despite his convictions, arguing that it would create a dangerous situation and further empower his base. They express concern about the potential for increased religious zeal and vengeance if Trump were to win.

  • How might the verdict impact the Republican Party and its future?

    The hosts discuss the potential impact of Trump's conviction on the Republican Party and its future. They suggest that a loss in the election could lead to a reckoning within the party and a questioning of its direction.

  • What is the significance of the institutions holding up in this case?

    The hosts highlight the significance of the institutions holding up in this case, emphasizing that it demonstrates the strength of the justice system and its ability to hold even powerful individuals accountable. They express hope that this will help to restore faith in the institutions and provide a sense of justice for those who have been affected by Trump's actions.

Show Notes

With Lydia in South Africa covering their election, Ross  out on parental leave and Michelle  reporting from a saloon in Colorado, Carlos  turns the mic over to his Times Opinion colleagues to respond to the news about Donald Trump’s guilty verdict in the New York hush-money trial.

The columnists Michelle Goldberg and David French — who calls himself “a recovering litigator” — join the deputy Opinion editor, Patrick Healy, to discuss Trump’s 34 guilty counts and debate what they mean for the former president, whether he’ll face jail time and how it will affect the 2024 presidential race.

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“If We Think There’s a Trump Cult Already …”

“If We Think There’s a Trump Cult Already …”

New York Times Opinion