We're in the midst of a craft revolution. We're seeing explosive growth in many consumer products categories. There is no one definition, I would say, but oftentimes there are artisanal products, locally sourced, handmade, and sometimes made in small batches.我们正处在一场手工艺革命的浪潮之中。我们看到许多消费品类别都在出现爆炸式增长。虽然没有一个统一的定义，但通常它们是手工制作的产品、本地采购、手工打造，有时以小批量方式生产。

It resonates with many of the megatrends that we see with consumers, particularly millennials who are really looking for something very authentic. They like to take risks and try new products. Right now, it's primarily a U.S. phenomenon, but we're seeing growth in many markets outside the U.S. as well.这与我们看到的许多消费大趋势相契合，尤其是千禧一代，他们非常追求真实的东西。他们喜欢冒险、尝试新产品。目前这主要是一种美国现象，但我们也在看到美国以外许多市场的增长。

We really think the craft revolution will be a global phenomenon over the next 10 years. We're seeing the craft revolution across many categories. You know, when you think about restaurants, the whole farm-to-table concept is a great example of craft.我们确实认为，在未来10年内，手工艺革命将成为全球现象。我们在许多类别中都看到了这种手工艺浪潮。例如，当你想到餐饮业时，“从农场到餐桌”的理念就是一个典型的手工化代表。

You're seeing it in cosmetics. Handmade soap, for example, is really a growing part of that industry. I think most importantly, where we're seeing the most and the fastest growth we're seeing is really in the alcoholic beverages.你也能在化妆品领域看到这种趋势。例如手工皂，已成为该行业快速增长的部分。而我认为最重要的是，我们看到增长最多、增速最快的领域其实是酒精类饮品。

Beer and spirits are examples of where we're seeing really a true craft revolution playing out. Craft beer is the most developed and largest segment within craft. It's about 10% of the total industry volume, independent crafts, and if you include some of the craft-style brands that are owned by the major companies, it's actually as large as 13%, 14%.啤酒和烈酒是我们看到真正的手工革命正在发生的典型例子。在所有手工领域中，精酿啤酒是发展最成熟、规模最大的部分。独立精酿啤酒约占整个行业销量的10%，如果再算上大公司拥有的精酿风格品牌，比例实际上可达到13%至14%。

It's interesting because it's not a new concept per se. Craft beers have been around since the 80s and 90s, really started out as some of the smaller microbrewery developing their own beer in their garages, and I think the last 10 years, we've seen such explosive growth in craft beer. And we think that over the next five years, the craft beer segment could be as big as 20% of the total industry volume.有趣的是，这本身并不是一个新概念。精酿啤酒从80年代、90年代就已经出现，最早是一些小型的家庭微型酿酒厂在车库里自行酿造。而在过去10年，我们看到了精酿啤酒的爆炸式增长。我们认为，在未来五年内，精酿啤酒可能会增长到整个行业规模的20%。

Craft spirits is smaller than beer. Today we think it's about 2% to 3% of the total industry volume, but what's interesting and fascinating is that this is growing at a really faster rate than beer. Many of the craft spirits brands are growing 40%, 50%, and really it touches on across many categories within spirits.精酿烈酒目前比啤酒小得多。现在我们估计它占整个行业的2%到3%。但有趣的是，它的增长速度比啤酒还要快。许多精酿烈酒品牌正以40%至50%的速度增长，而且涵盖烈酒中的多个类别。

So it's not just the whiskey phenomenon, but you're seeing it in vodka, you're seeing it in gin. The other thing that's interesting is when you think about the number of distilleries that are actually popping up, it's very close to where beer was 10, 15 years ago. So think about the trajectory that craft spirits could be on for the next 10 years, really replicating what beer went through on the craft side.所以这不只是威士忌的现象，你能在伏特加、杜松子酒中都看到这一趋势。另一个有趣的点是，当你观察新成立的蒸馏厂的数量时，它与啤酒在10到15年前的情况非常相似。所以想象一下未来10年精酿烈酒的发展轨迹，很可能会复制精酿啤酒过去的路径。

Interestingly, I think what you have to keep in mind is the consequences of what all this means for some of the larger players. Some are buying some of these smaller craft brands, some are trying to develop their own brands organically, but certainly the competitive intensity has been rising and we think will continue to rise as a result of just the proliferation and the competitive pressure from these craft beer brands. So the rise of craft is here to stay.值得注意的是，我们必须考虑这些变化对大型企业意味着什么。一些大公司正在收购小型精酿品牌，一些则试图自行开发手工风格产品。但无论如何，竞争强度正在上升，且我们认为会持续上升，因为精酿品牌数量迅速增加并带来了巨大的竞争压力。因此，手工艺浪潮势不可挡。

In some categories we think the craft will really take over the mainstream segments in that particular category, and like it or not, the larger companies really have to deal with the consequences of what that means. It's not just an impact on the consumers, but how the companies are dealing with that will really define how the industry impacts the broader trends over time.在某些类别中，我们认为手工化甚至会取代该类别的主流市场。不管大型企业愿不愿意，它们都必须应对这种变化带来的影响。这不仅影响消费者行为，更影响企业如何调整策略，而这些变化将最终塑造整个行业如何影响未来更广泛的趋势。