NEWS ON 12/15

MARKET EXPECTS MORE ECONOMIC STIMULUS

市场期待更激进的GDP增长目标

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MARKET EXPECTS MORE ECONOMIC STIMULUS

市场期待更激进的GDP增长目标

The recently-concluded Central EconomicWork Conference also noted that China's economy has achieved a recovery, withsolid progress made in high-quality development in 2023. Our reporters havespoken to 5 economists from leading financial institutions to get their take onthe conference and the signals it's sent. In today's interview, our reporterZhang Shixuan spoke to Wang Dan, the Chief Economist at Hang Seng Bank China.

最近结束的中央经济工作会议也提到，中国经济正在复苏，2023年高质量发展扎实推进。我们的记者采访了来自5家领头金融机构的经济学家，谈一谈他们对会议所传达的信号的解读。在今天的采访中，本报记者张诗旋采访了恒生银行（中国）首席经济学家王丹。

What signal have you received from the justconcluded Central Economic Work Conference? Is stimulus going to be effectivein getting back the country's economic momentum?

刚刚结束的中央经济工作会议，你收到了什么信号？刺激计划能有效地恢复国家的经济势头吗？

The previous meetings, including the politburo meeting has sent out a signal that the government will implement biggerstimulus in 2024 than the past two years. This is quite necessary for many ofthe domestic producers. They're trying to find new markets, not just domesticmarkets, but also overseas market. Their production capacity has exceeded whatChinese mainland market can absorb. So there is a need to find new projects,new market to basically use up their production capacity.

包括政治局会议在内的前几次会议发出了一个信号，即政府将在2024年实施比过去两年更大的刺激措施。这对许多国内生产商来说是非常必要的。他们正在努力寻找新市场，不仅是国内市场，还有海外市场。他们的生产能力已经超过了中国大陆市场的消化能力。所以有必要找到新的项目，新的市场来消化他们的产能。

How important is this year's CentralEconomic Work Conference, given the headwinds faced by the Chineseeconomy at the moment?

考虑到目前中国经济面临的不利因素，今年的中央经济工作会议有多重要？

We're looking to the new GDP target in theCentral Work Economic Conference. It will be quite essential for businesscommunity to make their plan for the next year. Because this year, theinvestment mood is quite tamed. But next year, many people expect a turnaround.The biggest problem for Chinese economy is still a lack of confidence. It's notjust for consumers, but also investors. And that means for the GDP target in2024, it has to be a little bit more ambitious than just based on fundamentals.So we're expecting more government-led projects, especially in the new energyindustry, supply chain and water projects in central and western China, cityrenovation projects. So a lot of the fiscal expansion has to take place. Andfor domestic consumers, they're expecting faster income growth and that dependson the job market security. In order to achieve that, we also need thegovernment to take a more relaxed stance in both monetary policy and fiscalpolicy. So the Central Economic Work Conference is the foundation for business communityand also it can significantly improve the market sentiment.

我们关注中央工作经济工作会议提出新的GDP目标。对于商界来说，制定明年的计划是非常重要的。因为今年，投资情绪相当温和。但明年，许多人预计情况会好转。中国经济面临的最大问题仍然是缺乏信心。这不仅适用于消费者，也适用于投资者。这意味着，对于2024年的GDP目标来说，它必须比仅仅基于基本面的目标更雄心勃勃。因此，我们预计会有更多政府主导的项目，特别是在中国中西部的新能源产业、供应链和水利项目、城市改造项目方面。所以必须进行大量的财政扩张。对于国内消费者来说，他们预计收入增长会更快，这取决于就业市场的安全性。为了实现这一目标，我们还需要政府在货币政策和财政政策方面采取更加宽松的立场。因此，中央经济工作会议是企业界的基础，也可以显著改善市场情绪。

How do you view the economic situation thisyear in China?

你如何看待今年中国的经济形势？

2023 is indeed a year of deep adjustment.And we have seen this real turnaround for consumer market because last year thebase was too low. So just by a natural rebounding consumer market, we have seena 7% to 8% of growth in retail market for most Chinese cities. And when we lookat the GDP growth for different sectors, it is quite uplifting. But there is agap between the macro data and micro perception. The main reason for that isthis year's growth was still mostly driven by government projects and that ismostly turned into stock building, capital formation as well as manufacturinginvestment. Those things don't necessarily turn into people's income and that'swhy on the micro level, a lot of individuals feel that their wage hasn't grownas fast as before. I would say this year the official target will be metwithout a doubt on the 5% GDP target. There's no doubt we can achieve that. Butin the months to come, there has to be more targeted measures trying to improvethe quality of life and that includes income growth as well as job security.

2023年确实是深度调整的一年。我们已经看到了消费市场的真正转变，因为去年的基数太低了。因此，仅凭消费市场的自然反弹，我们就可以看到中国大多数城市的零售市场增长了7%至8%。当我们看到其它产业的GDP增长时，这是非常令人振奋的。但宏观数据和微观感知之间存在差距。主要原因是今年的增长仍然主要由政府项目推动，而这些项目大多转化为建设存量、资本形成和制造业投资。这些东西不一定会转化为人们的收入，这就是为什么在微观层面上，很多人觉得他们的工资没有以前增长得那么快。我想说，今年的官方设定的5%的GDP目标毫无疑问将实现。但在未来几个月里，必须采取更有针对性的措施，努力提高生活质量，其中包括收入增长和工作保障。

#热词加油站

Politburo  [ˈpɒlɪtbjʊərəʊ]  政治局

Adjustment  [əˈdʒʌstmənt]  调整

Fundamental  [ˌfʌndəˈmentl]  基本的

Headwind  [ˈhedwɪnd]  逆风

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