NEWS ON 12/19

1. CHINA CAN SURMOUNT THE

CURRENT ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

中国经济内外部可控

-----------------记得点亮右下角的爱心哦-------------

CHINA CAN SURMOUNT THE

CURRENT ECONOMIC CHALLENGES

中国经济内外部可控

After a bumpy 2023, there are high expectations for China's economic recovery in 2024. In the wake of the agenda-setting Central Economic Work Conference, our reporter Timothy Pope sat down with Bruce Pang, Chief Economist at the global real estate services company JLL Greater China, to get his take on how the country's challenges can be met.

中国经济经历了持续承压的2023后，人们对2024年中国经济复苏寄予厚望。在定基调的中央经济工作会议之后，我们的记者Timothy Pope与全球知名房地产咨询机构仲量联行大中华区首席经济学家庞溟交谈，了解中国如何应对挑战。

How important is this year's Central Economic Work Conference in really setting the tone for 2024?

今年的中央经济工作会议在为2024年定下基调方面有多重要？

Yes, in term of the external environment, actually a recent data shows the potential risk of slowdown in global economy as well as in many macro economies. The softening external demand actually isn't completely favorable has posed challenges for China's growth momentum and is worthy to be addressed and responded to in the top-level meeting. And domestic wise, the market expected some progress policies to complement and bear fruits, which have not yet been effectively translated into near term growth due to the constrained policy transmission and business confidence. 

是的，就外部环境而言，实际上最近的数据显示了全球经济以及许多宏观经济体放缓的潜在风险。外部需求的疲软实际上并不完全有利，这对中国的增长势头构成了挑战，值得在高层会议上加以解决和回应。就国内而言，市场预计一些鼓励政策将相辅相成并取得成果，但由于政策传导和商业信心受到限制，这些政策尚未在短期内有效转化为增长。

And economy’s indeed facing some structural issues together with local governments’ debt risk, distress in the housing market, etc. So a fairly supportive measures have proven mostly beneficial, raising some pressures on authorities to roll out more stimulus. My opinion is that work conference reaffirms the importance and lays a concrete foundations of stabilizing the expectations and setting up confidence.

经济确实面临着一些结构性问题，以及地方政府的债务风险、房地产市场的困境等。因此，政府主导刺激措施大多数被证明是有益的，市场期待政府能推出更多刺激措施。我的看法是，工作会议重申了这一重要性，并为稳定预期和奠定信心奠定了基础。

You talked about effective transmission of policy. How much new policy and how much new stimulus is the economy going to need?

你谈到了政策的有效传递。中国经济需要多少新政策和新刺激？

First, there will be supportive measures at all front and pragmatic strategies to revive recovery and to reengine grows for China together with solid progress in high quality development. The second step, the policymakers pledge to boost domestic demands and store the business confidence to take steps to reorient the economy towards household consumptions and market oriented allocation of resources. And the third one is that the central governments not only recognize the achievement and momentum of China's economy, also identify some specific issues and a few factors and challenges to tackle.

首先，政府需要在各个方面采取支持措施，制定务实战略，重振复苏，同时在高质量发展方面取得坚实进展。第二步，政策制定者承诺提高国内需求，并储备商业信心，以采取措施将经济动力转向家庭消费和市场导向的资源配置。第三，中央政府不仅认识到中国经济的成就和势头，还确定了一些具体方面以及一些需要解决的因素和挑战。

The property sector is obviously a major area of concern and has been for a while. What can be done there both to promote the sector as a whole, but also just to bring home buyers back to the market. Is this an issue of confidence, one of affordability or is it a combination of factors?

房地产行业显然是人们关注的一个主要领域，而且已经有一段时间了。对于房地产领域可以做些什么，既能促进整个行业的发展，又能让购房者重返市场。这是信心问题、负担能力问题还是多种因素的结合？

I think the top priority would be to break to potential virtuous cycle in and downward cycle. And some argue that ensuring the delivery of residential buildings is one of top priorities but I don't agree because it's not only priority. The language of housing for the central economical conference was a little change from previous statements. So the key would be to better implementations, executions of existing policies for the property sector to break the potential virtuous cycle, not introducing the new remedies.

我认为当务之急是促进房地产业良性循环。一些人认为，确保住宅楼的交付是首要任务之一，但我不同意，因为这不是唯一的优先事项。中央经济会议的住房措辞与之前的声明略有不同。因此，关键是更好地实施和执行房地产行业的现有政策，以促进良性循环，而不是引入新的补救措施。

And what's your outlook for the Chinese economy in 2024? 

你对2024年中国经济的展望是什么？

There will be two major growth drivers for 2024. First will be making good use of policy room. And second will be a synergy between consumption and investment as mentioned by the Work Conference so that there will be better collaborations and strong synergy across different policies include physical monetary size, technology, industrial policies, etc. Among others, the strengthen innovations and coordinations policy tools could also be seen which are positive stabilize expectation sentiment to promote to transition of growth model and structural adjustments. And demand, especially as a domestic demand is the key. So consumption and investments two wings of China's growth. And I think the virtuous cycle, the positive effect from both investments and consumptions, could also be a very important catalyst to further boost China's growth and development next year.

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