NEWS ON 12/20

ECONOMIST PREDICTS STIMULUS MEASURES IN 2024

更多重点领域激励政策有望出台

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ECONOMIST PREDICTS STIMULUS MEASURES IN 2024

更多重点领域激励政策有望出台

Expectations are high for China's economic recovery to continue in 2024. Our reporter Timothy Pope spoke to Zhou Hao, Chief Economist of Guotai Juan International, to find out his take on the country's economic growth and what we can expect next year.

人们高度期待中国经济在2024年继续复苏。本台记者Timothy Pope采访了国泰君安国际的首席经济学家周浩，分享对中国明年经济增长的看法以及我们能期待哪些。

Zhou Hao, thanks for making the time to talk to us today. 

周浩，感谢你今天抽空接受我们的采访。

Hi. 

你好。

How important is the Central Economic Work Conference this year, given the headwinds【逆风】that are currently facing the Chinese economy?

鉴于中国经济目前面临的不利因素，今年的中央经济工作会议有多重要？

Well, I think it's very clear that the market has been expecting a kind of very big stimulus package from China for long. And also, in the meantime, we have seen that the property market has been slowing down. Overall speaking, the economy has been somehow a bit kind of battling or even kind of struggling with this kind of headwinds. The Central Economic Work Conference is definitely one of the most important policy meetings in China, and it will set the policy agenda and terms for next year. From this kind of perspective, the market definitely wants to know more and gets more insights about the policy framework for the coming year.

我认为很明显的一点是市场长期以来一直在期待中国出台非常大的经济刺激计划。同时，我们也看到房地产市场已经放缓。总体而言，经济在某种程度上一直在与这种不利因素作斗争。中央经济工作会议无疑是中国最重要的政策会议之一，它将确定明年的政策议程和条款。从这个角度来看，市场肯定希望对来年的政策框架有更多的了解和认识。

There have been some pretty clear signals that the Chinese government is not gonna turn on the fiscal【财政】fire hose next year and really pump money into the economy. But might we see some more targeted measures, perhaps special bonds, for example, similar to those that we saw issued back in 2020?

已经有一些非常明确的信号表明，中国政府明年不会打开财政“水龙头”，真正地向经济注入资金。但是，我们是否会看到一些更有针对性的措施，比如2020年发行的特别国债？

We have to acknowledge that the overall policy stimulus will be still kind of targeted, or even moderated in the next few quarters. But the targeted policy also means that the sectors that will be supported by the physical policy will get more kind of support or boost from the policy and also all kind of get more kind of attention from the investors.

我们必须承认，未来几个季度的整体政策刺激仍将是有针对性和适度的。但有针对性的政策也意味着，受实体政策支持的行业将从政策中获得更多的支持或推动，同时也会得到投资者更多的关注。

So I think for China, there are two different kinds of perspectives when we look at the policy support for next year. One is that the government will continue to provide support to boost the potential or kind of productivity. And in the meantime, the government will provide support to improve the people's livelihood【生计】.

因此，对中国而言，明年的政策支持有两种不同的角度。一是政府将继续提供支持，以提高生产潜力或生产率。与此同时，政府还将为改善民生提供支持。

What do you expect from the Chinese economy in 2024? What's your outlook?

您对2024年中国经济有何预期？前景如何？

Overall speaking, if you look at the growth projection for 2024, basically we're looking around like 5%. This is there's no little doubt that China was to deliver a decent growth for next year. But on the other hand, first half of the year, we're still have to be kind of patient to see the economic momentum sentiment【情绪】and also the confidence to gradually build up. I think the hope will be that the overall economic kind of a growth will be consolidated in the first half of next year. And for the second half of next year, overall speaking, the risk will be can somehow contained, especially in both the property sector and also the local government debt related staff. And basically, that will pave ways for good kind of returns in both the bond market as well as the stock market for next year. And first half of the year, we're looking at so called the risk management. And for the second half of the year, I think there will be kind of a good returns or decent returns from a specific sector as well.

总的来说，关于2024年的增长预测，我们的基本预期是5%左右。毫无疑问，中国明年会有不错的增长。但另一方面，明年上半年，我们仍需耐心等待经济势头和信心的逐步增强。我认为，整体经济增长的希望能在明年上半年得到巩固。明年下半年，总体而言，风险将在某种程度上得到控制，尤其是在房地产行业和地方政府债务相关方面。基本上，这将为明年债券市场和股票市场的良好回报铺平道路。明年上半年，我们将关注所谓的风险管理。至于下半年，我认为某些行业也会有不错的回报。

So there's going to be a lot to watch in 2024. Thanks for sharing your insights, Zhouhao.

所以，2024年将有很多事情值得关注。感谢您分享的见解，周浩。

Thank you very much.

非常感谢。

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