#289 Michael Lester - Is the United States Going to War with Iran For Israel?
2Digest
This podcast critically analyzes the current geopolitical landscape, focusing on the potential for war in Iran and the significant influence of Israeli lobbying on US foreign policy. Guests and hosts dissect the motivations behind US actions, questioning official narratives and highlighting historical precedents like the 1953 Iran coup. The discussion delves into the economic implications of de-dollarization, the role of BRICS, and the potential for global conflict escalation. It also explores the influence of Christian Zionism, the Electoral College, and the importance of citizen engagement in holding government accountable. The conversation touches upon the strategic use of AI in warfare, the challenges of misinformation, and the historical context of US-Iran relations, ultimately advocating for a more informed and active citizenry.
Outlines
Introduction and Geopolitical Context
The podcast opens with a dramatic introduction and the return of guest Michael Lester, discussing the current geopolitical climate, particularly the war with Iran and its potential Israeli influence. Lester's background as a decorated US Marine Corps combat pilot and his investigation into US foreign policy, leading to his book "We Are the Bad Guys," are introduced. The rapid pace of global events, including Operation Epic Fury, and patterns in US actions in Venezuela, Cuba, and Iran are noted.
Joe Kent's Resignation and Israeli Influence
The resignation of Joe Kent from the National Counterterrorism Center is discussed, with his statement citing Israeli pressure and lobbying as reasons for his opposition to the war in Iran. The conversation highlights a Wall Street Journal article detailing Senator Lindsey Graham's meetings with Israeli intelligence and Prime Minister Netanyahu to influence US policy. Secretary of State Marco Rubio's perspective, suggesting foreknowledge of Israeli preemptive strikes, is also presented.
Public Apathy and Information Control
The hosts address public apathy towards current events and the role of misinformation in shaping public opinion. They discuss the nuances of declaring war and its impact on service members' benefits. The conversation shifts to individual action and political engagement, including the possibility of a Trump third term and legal loopholes.
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US Intelligence Failures and Wartime Elections
Joe Kent's resignation statement is re-emphasized, focusing on his opposition to the war in Iran due to Israeli pressure. The discussion critiques the US government's intelligence handling and the influence of representatives without national security backgrounds. The possibility of suspending elections during wartime to enable a third presidential term is explored.
Contradictions in Political Statements and Israel's Motivations
The hosts highlight contradictions between politicians' campaign statements and their current actions regarding war. Israel's strong desire to confront Iran is questioned, exploring the concept of "Greater Israel" and its implications for regional superpower status. The systematic removal of potential military challengers to Israel in the Middle East by the US is also discussed.
Pete Blaber Interview and Information Manufacturing
An upcoming interview with Pete Blaber is announced, focusing on his insights into the intelligence surrounding the 2003 Iraq invasion. The discussion addresses how information can be manufactured to justify pre-determined military actions, highlighting confirmation bias and political agendas. The immense human and psychological cost of prolonged wars is emphasized.
Regional Instability and Iran's Threat Assessment
The conversation shifts to Lebanon and Libya, discussing the weakening of military forces around Israel. The debate on whether Iran poses a direct threat to the US is presented, acknowledging Iran's past involvement in arming insurgents but questioning the current war's justification.
Iran's Nuclear Program and US Withdrawal from JCPOA
The narrative surrounding Iran's nuclear weapons program is scrutinized, referencing testimonies and IAEA reports that found no evidence of weapon development. The US withdrawal from the JCPOA is discussed, questioning if the narrative was intentionally manufactured to justify military action.
US Goals in Iran and the Prospect of "Forever War"
The stated US goals regarding Iran—destroying its missile program, annihilating its navy, severing proxy ties, and preventing nuclear weapons—are analyzed for their measurability and long-term implications. The goal of ensuring Iran never obtains nuclear weapons is identified as a potential trigger for a "forever war."
Economic Impact of Global Conflict and Oil Markets
The economic consequences of the current global situation are discussed, including rising oil prices, European dissatisfaction, and potential repercussions for wealthy Middle Eastern nations and the stock market. The impact of oil prices on oil companies, the role of strategic reserves, and China's oil dependence are examined.
Parallels to Afghanistan Withdrawal and Iran's Military Capabilities
The current situation is compared to the Afghanistan withdrawal, highlighting potential disaster due to knee-jerk reactions. The deployment of US troops in Iran is discussed, considering the challenging terrain and Iran's functional government and military. Iran's readiness to defend its territory, its experience in the Iran-Iraq war, and its strategic focus on projecting power are analyzed.
Iran's Investment in Missiles/Drones and Economic Beneficiaries of War
Iran's heavy investment in missiles and drones as a strategy to project power and move the battle away from its own territory is highlighted. The discussion questions who truly benefits from the war, suggesting Israel benefits while the US incurs costs with no tangible benefit to Americans.
Terrorism, Rational War Planning, and Religious Conflict
Concerns about Iran's proxies and potential sleeper cells within the US are expressed, discussing the possibility of coordinated attacks. The historical goal of terrorism—to make the populace feel unprotected by their government—is explored. The concept of rational war planning, emphasizing the need for benefits to outweigh expended assets, is discussed. The conflict with Iran is proposed as fundamentally a religious war.
Historical US-Iran Relationship and the 1953 Coup
The podcast traces the historical relationship between the US and Iran, noting Iran's past status as a key ally before the 1953 coup orchestrated by the CIA and MI6. The coup, which overthrew Prime Minister Mossadegh and installed the Shah, is detailed, highlighting the US and UK's involvement in securing oil rights and the subsequent Iranian resentment.
The 1979 Iranian Revolution and Desire for Autonomy
The 1979 revolution is discussed as a reaction against US influence and the Shah's rule, leading to Iran's desire for self-determination and the expulsion of US political interference. The hosts emphasize that current animosity towards the US stems from historical events like the orchestrated coup and the CIA's presence in Iran.
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Israel's Superpower Ambitions and US Role
The hosts discuss Israel's ambition to become a superpower in the Middle East independently of US support, referencing Netanyahu's statements and potential talks with China. Israel is characterized as opportunistic, and the US is described as a "host" in a "parasitic" relationship.
The US as "New Rome" and Global Conflicts
The analogy of the US as the "New Rome" is explored, discussing the historical inevitability of empires ending. A list of current global conflicts involving the US is presented, including Ukraine, Venezuela, Gaza, Iran, Taiwan, and Cuba.
Economic Impact of De-dollarization and Global Trade
The potential economic consequences of the Middle East ceasing to trade oil in US dollars are discussed, including the devaluation of the dollar and its impact on savings and international trade. The history of the US dollar, from its gold standard backing to its current reliance on belief, is explained.
BRICS and the Challenge to US Dollar Dominance
The rise of BRICS and its aim to move away from the US dollar for international trade is discussed as a significant threat to the dollar's global dominance. The potential economic fallout of the Middle East no longer trading oil in US dollars is explored.
Geopolitical Strategy: Containing China?
The possibility that recent geopolitical events are orchestrated to contain China's growing influence and energy access is raised and debated. The discussion compares US and Chinese oil consumption per capita, suggesting that a shift away from dollar-based oil trade would impact the US more severely than China.
Lack of a Grand Plan and American Strength
The hosts express doubt about a cohesive grand plan behind current geopolitical events, suggesting a lack of strategic foresight and potential for unintended consequences. Skepticism about certain claims is voiced, but America's strength and resources are emphasized, with a focus on benefiting American citizens.
Defining Victory and Regime Change Critiques
This segment questions the objectives and end goals of military actions, particularly in Iran, highlighting the importance of defining "done" to avoid perpetual wars. The critique of regime change as an ineffective strategy is discussed, advocating for respectful negotiation over forceful resource acquisition.
Ignoring Expertise and Misunderstanding Iranian Culture
The speaker criticizes the current approach of ignoring the expertise of foreign service professionals and State Department officials. There's a concern that Iranian culture and thought patterns are being misunderstood or disregarded, with an Iranian individual's perspective shared, expressing aversion to American intervention.
Media Influence and Cognitive Dissonance
The discrepancy between official news narratives and content found on social media raises questions about the authenticity of information. This cognitive dissonance suggests that agendas may be at play, influencing public perception. The low probability and strategic folly of a US invasion of Iran are analyzed.
Nuclear Weapons and Israel's Capabilities
The ethical and strategic implications of using nuclear weapons are explored, questioning the justification for such an act. The concern of Israel potentially using nuclear weapons is discussed, drawing parallels to past fears and emphasizing that such an action would cross a significant global red line.
Israel's Unpredictability and US Complicity
Israel is characterized as an unpredictable nation with a lack of restraint, consistently backed by the US. The devastating impact of their actions in Gaza is highlighted. Evidence suggesting American-made Tomahawk missiles may have been used in an attack on a school in Iran raises serious questions about US involvement in collateral damage.
Futility of Ground Troops and Israel's Motivations
The strategic ineffectiveness of deploying ground troops in Iran is debated, as objectives can be achieved through air power. The risks of war crimes and collective punishment are emphasized. The discussion questions when the conflict with Israel will end and explores the possibility of it being a religious war driven by a belief in divine right to the land.
Influence of Pro-Israel Lobbying Groups
The significant influence of organizations like AIPAC on US Congress is examined through funding and lobbying efforts. The American-Israeli Education Foundation's role in funding trips for US congressmen and senators to Israel is revealed as a form of propaganda.
Christian Zionism and Political Influence
The significant voting bloc of Christian Zionists in the US is identified as a major driver of political support for Israel. Their belief in supporting Israel for the second coming influences politicians seeking votes. The influence of Cyrus Schofield's interpretation of the Bible on these beliefs is discussed.
Evolution of AIPAC and AI in Research
The historical development of AIPAC is traced, highlighting its rebranding and evolution into a powerful lobbying force. The use of AI tools like Claude for deep research, context verification, and connecting information across multiple sources is discussed, emphasizing its utility for complex tasks.
Third Temple Controversy and Talmudic Interpretations
The aspiration to build a Third Temple on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem is explored, alongside archaeological debates and the presence of religious sites, creating a complex situation. The Talmud's teachings are examined, with attention to controversial passages, highlighting the importance of context in interpreting religious texts.
False Flag Events and Israeli Deception
Concern is expressed that a false flag event, potentially blamed on Iran, could be orchestrated to manipulate US public opinion. Past incidents, such as the Lavon Affair and the USS Liberty attack, are cited as examples of Israel engaging in deceptive and aggressive actions against US interests.
Prioritizing Foreign Interests and War Powers Act Violation
An interview with Mike Huckabee reveals a trend of some US political representatives prioritizing Israeli interests over American ones. The violation of the War Powers Act regarding military action in Iran and Congress's abdication of its constitutional power to declare war are scrutinized.
Leahy Act and Citizen Accountability
The Leahy Act's prohibition on selling arms to countries violating human rights is discussed in the context of US arms sales to Israel. The importance of citizen involvement in holding the government accountable is stressed, with practical suggestions for contacting representatives and advocating for change.
Electoral College Reform and Campaign Finance Transparency
The historical origins and undemocratic nature of the Electoral College are explained, along with the proposed Popular Vote Compact as a means to ensure the president is elected by the majority of the people. Tools like APAC Tracker are introduced to reveal campaign funding sources.
Call to Action for Citizen Engagement
The current state of affairs is described as dire, but not a foregone conclusion. Citizen involvement and holding the government accountable are presented as crucial for positive change. The act of resigning from a position of power for principled reasons is admired, though its immediate impact is questioned.
Public Perception of Politicians and Doing Your Job
The public's low trust in politicians is contrasted with the continued idolization of political figures. The need for a shift in public opinion and a focus on genuine representation is emphasized. The effectiveness of resignation as a statement versus being fired is debated.
Social Media Battles and Bandolini's Law
The difficulty of refuting misinformation online is discussed, referencing Bandolini's Law (bullshit asymmetry principle) and the time-consuming nature of correcting false claims, especially with bots.
Geopolitical Alliances and Historical Parallels
Exploration of potential alliances between Israel and China/Russia is considered, along with the influence of US political systems and China's government structure. A deeper dive into whether current events are more akin to 1913 (a tinderbox) or 1939 (a defined problem) is analyzed.
Domino Effect of Obligations and "Sleepwalking" into Conflict
Analysis of how interconnected alliances and obligations could escalate current conflicts, using NATO and recent missile incidents as examples. Discussion on how undefined goals and a lack of clear endpoints can lead to prolonged conflicts, referencing historical analyses.
Military Mobilization and AI in Warfare
Examination of how military mobilization, once started, becomes difficult to stop due to pre-existing plans and interlocking agreements. Concerns are raised about AI-driven targeting applications in warfare lacking human intellect and the potential for logical but non-human decisions to lead to conflict.
Hindsight, Foregone Conclusions, and Strategic Calculations
Reflecting on historical conflicts, the discussion highlights how interlocking obligations, hubris, and unachievable goals can make outcomes seem like foregone conclusions in hindsight. Analysis of whether China or Russia would join forces with Iran, considering potential US war and their own strategic interests.
Unique Israeli-American Joint Operation and China's Tactics
The discussion points out the unique aspect of the US entering a war as a joint operation with Israel. Examination of China's use of "gray zone tactics" against Taiwan while global attention is focused on the Middle East, questioning if it's an exploitation of US resources.
Military Overextension and Ammunition Shortages
The argument that US military overextension in conflicts like Iran depletes its ability to project force elsewhere, creating opportunities for adversaries. Discussion on the possibility of Israel demanding more munitions from the US and withdrawing if the request is denied, given current shortages. A firsthand account of critical ammunition shortages during Desert Storm is shared.
Ammunition Stockpile Deficits and Information's Impact
An explanation of how budget overruns in weapons systems led to a significant deficit in ammunition stockpiles, impacting warfighting capability. The importance of having additional information and a different lens to view global actions and decisions is emphasized for a more informed perspective.
Washington D.C. Echo Chamber and Political Constraints
A critical look at the perceived lack of new ideas and uniformity of thought among officials in Washington D.C. The challenges faced by government professionals in providing unvarnished truth due to political sensitivities and the fear of negative repercussions are discussed.
Citizen Responsibility and Upcoming Projects
The crucial role of citizens in staying informed, engaging with representatives, and holding them accountable for their actions and decisions is stressed. Introduction to upcoming projects: a book on lies and a "citizen's guide" to improving civic engagement, including information on the popular vote movement.
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Cybersecurity Ventures and Secure Communication
Discussion about starting a cybersecurity company focused on secure phones and VPN services, addressing concerns about data privacy and phone security. Introduction to a burner number service designed for secure communication.
Keywords
Israeli Influence
Refers to the perceived or actual impact of Israel and its lobbying efforts on United States foreign policy, particularly concerning military actions and international relations. This includes political pressure, intelligence sharing, and advocacy for specific geopolitical outcomes.
Operation Epic Fury
A military operation or event that marked a significant shift in geopolitical dynamics, potentially involving conflict or heightened tensions. Its commencement signifies a new phase in international relations and strategic maneuvering.
Joe Kent Resignation
The act of Joe Kent stepping down from his position, likely due to policy disagreements or ethical concerns. His resignation statement often highlights the reasons behind his departure, shedding light on internal conflicts or controversial decisions.
Senator Lindsey Graham
A US Senator whose actions and statements are scrutinized for their influence on foreign policy. His engagement with foreign leaders and intelligence agencies is examined for potential conflicts of interest or undue influence on US decisions.
US Foreign Policy Investigation
A deep dive into the rationale, execution, and consequences of US foreign policy decisions. This involves scrutinizing official narratives against ground realities and uncovering potential discrepancies or hidden agendas.
Geopolitical Patterns
Recurring themes, strategies, or sequences of events in international relations. Identifying these patterns helps in understanding the underlying dynamics of global conflicts and political maneuvering.
War in Iran
The military conflict involving Iran, its causes, justifications, and consequences. This includes examining the role of external actors, the strategic objectives, and the impact on regional and global stability.
Nuclear Weapons Program
Refers to the development, acquisition, or potential development of nuclear weapons by a state. This is a critical issue in international security, often leading to sanctions, diplomatic pressure, and military threats.
JCPOA (Iran Nuclear Deal)
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an agreement between Iran and world powers aimed at limiting Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Its history, implementation, and US withdrawal are key aspects of US-Iran relations.
BRICS
An acronym for an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. BRICS aims to promote economic cooperation and challenge the dominance of Western-led financial institutions.
Regime Change
The forceful overthrow of a government by external or internal actors. This can involve military intervention, political pressure, or support for opposition groups, often with the aim of installing a more favorable leadership.
War Powers Act
A US federal law intended to check the president's power to commit the United States to armed conflict without the consent of Congress. It outlines procedures for presidential reporting and congressional approval or disapproval of military engagements.
Christian Zionism
A theological movement within Christianity that supports the creation and development of the State of Israel based on a literal interpretation of biblical prophecies. Adherents believe that the return of Jews to Israel and the rebuilding of the Temple are precursors to the Second Coming of Christ.
Electoral College
A body of electors established by the United States Constitution, constituted every four years for the sole purpose of electing the president and vice president. It's a compromise between electing the president by popular vote and electing the president by a vote in Congress.
Popular Vote Compact
An interstate compact where participating states agree to award all their electoral votes to the presidential candidate who wins the national popular vote. This aims to effectively bypass the Electoral College without a constitutional amendment.
Leahy Act
A US federal law that prohibits the US government from providing military assistance or training to foreign military units that have committed gross violations of human rights. It requires investigation into alleged abuses.
Bandolini's Law
Also known as the bullshit asymmetry principle, it states that the effort to refute nonsense is significantly greater than the effort to produce it, highlighting the challenge of combating misinformation online.
Gray Zone Tactics
A military strategy involving ambiguous actions below the threshold of conventional warfare, used to achieve objectives without triggering a full-scale conflict, often seen in geopolitical maneuvering.
Sleepwalking into Conflict
A metaphor describing how nations can inadvertently stumble into major wars due to a lack of awareness, interconnected obligations, and miscalculations, as detailed in historical analyses of WWI.
Zero-Knowledge Proof
A cryptographic method where one party can prove to another that a given statement is true, without revealing any information beyond the truth of the statement itself, ensuring data privacy.
Popular Vote Movement
A political initiative advocating for the election of the US President based on the national popular vote rather than the Electoral College, aiming to ensure every vote carries equal weight.
Q&A
What is the primary reason Michael Lester believes the US is involved in the war with Iran?
Michael Lester suggests that the war in Iran is largely due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby, rather than an imminent threat to the US.
What significant event is discussed regarding Joe Kent's position?
Joe Kent, the Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned from his position due to his inability to support the ongoing war in Iran, citing Israeli influence.
How did Senator Lindsey Graham allegedly influence US policy towards Iran?
Senator Lindsey Graham reportedly met with Israeli intelligence and Prime Minister Netanyahu, coaching Netanyahu on how to lobby the US president for action regarding Iran.
What is the main argument against the US narrative regarding Iran's nuclear program?
The argument is that US intelligence and the IAEA have found no evidence of Iran actively pursuing nuclear weapons, contradicting the stated reason for potential military action.
What historical event does the podcast highlight as a key factor in the current US-Iran animosity?
The 1953 CIA and MI6 orchestrated coup that overthrew Iran's democratically elected Prime Minister Mossadegh and installed the Shah is presented as a major cause of historical resentment.
What is the potential economic impact if the Middle East stops trading oil in US dollars?
If oil is no longer traded in US dollars, the dollar's value could significantly decrease, impacting retirement savings, international purchasing power, and the overall US economy.
What is BRICS and how does it relate to the US dollar?
BRICS is an economic bloc of emerging nations aiming to establish alternative trading units, challenging the US dollar's global dominance in international trade, particularly in oil.
What is the historical analogy used to describe the US's current global position?
The US is compared to the "New Rome," representing a powerful empire whose eventual decline is inevitable, raising questions about whether this decline will be graceful or catastrophic.
What are the potential consequences of Iran's drone technology versus US missile defense systems?
Iran's low-cost drones ($20k-$35k) are countered by expensive Patriot missiles ($4 million), creating a significant cost disparity that Iran can sustain longer than the US can afford to resupply.
What is the historical goal of terrorism, according to the discussion?
The goal of terrorism is to make the populace feel that their government cannot protect them, thereby eroding trust and creating widespread fear and instability.
What are the main arguments against the effectiveness of regime change as a foreign policy strategy?
Regime change often fails because it doesn't address underlying societal issues, can lead to power vacuums and instability, and may result in worse outcomes than the original regime. Historical examples show that replacing leaders doesn't guarantee a stable or favorable government.
How does the War Powers Act aim to balance presidential and congressional authority in military actions?
The War Powers Act requires the President to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to combat, detailing the reasons and objectives. Congress then has 60-90 days to approve or disapprove the deployment, after which troops must be withdrawn if not authorized.
What is the core belief of Christian Zionists regarding Israel and its significance?
Christian Zionists believe that the establishment and support of Israel are biblically mandated, linked to the Second Coming of Christ. They see the control of Jerusalem by Jews as a crucial step towards this event and advocate for strong US support for Israel.
What is the historical basis and current function of the Electoral College?
The Electoral College originated as a compromise during the Constitutional Convention, partly influenced by the issue of slavery. It remains the mechanism for electing the US President, where electors, not the popular vote, ultimately decide the outcome.
How does the Popular Vote Compact aim to reform presidential elections?
The Popular Vote Compact is an agreement among states to award their electoral votes to the candidate who wins the national popular vote. Once enough states join, it ensures the popular vote winner becomes president, bypassing the Electoral College without amending the Constitution.
What is the purpose of the Leahy Act in relation to US foreign aid and military sales?
The Leahy Act prevents the US from providing military assistance or training to foreign security forces that have committed gross violations of human rights. It mandates investigations into such allegations before aid can be disbursed.
What is Bandolini's Law and how does it relate to online discourse?
Bandolini's Law, or the bullshit asymmetry principle, states that refuting false information takes much more effort than creating it. This makes online discussions challenging, as correcting misinformation requires significant time and energy, especially when bots are involved.
How does the concept of "sleepwalking into conflict" apply to modern geopolitical situations?
"Sleepwalking into conflict" describes how nations can become embroiled in wars due to a complex web of alliances, miscalculations, and a lack of clear objectives, similar to the lead-up to WWI. This highlights the danger of not fully understanding the implications of interconnected obligations.
What is Ironclad Family and what problem does it solve?
Ironclad Family provides ultra-secure digital vaults using zero-knowledge encryption for storing sensitive personal information. It solves the problem of ensuring vital documents and data are accessible to designated recipients after one's death or incapacitation, preventing loss like the case of Gerald Cotten's Bitcoin.
What are the potential risks of AI in military targeting?
AI-driven targeting systems, while logical, may lack human intellect and empathy. This could lead to decisions with severe consequences that don't account for the human element, potentially escalating conflicts or causing unintended harm.
Why is citizen engagement crucial for a healthy democracy?
Citizens have a primary responsibility to stay informed about what's happening and to hold their elected representatives accountable. Active participation and informed decision-making are essential to ensure that government actions align with the will of the people.
Show Notes
Michael Lester is a decorated U.S. Marine Corps combat pilot, cybersecurity educator, and author who has spent his career operating at the intersection of military power, technology, and national security. A graduate of the United States Naval Academy and a member of MENSA, Lester also holds a master’s degree in Electrical Engineering from the Naval Postgraduate School and an MBA, giving him a rare blend of technical expertise and strategic insight.
During his military career, Lester flew combat missions across Asia and the Middle East, witnessing firsthand the realities of modern warfare and U.S. foreign policy. After his operational service, he returned to Annapolis to teach electrical engineering and leadership at the U.S. Naval Academy, helping shape the next generation of naval officers.
Today, Lester continues his work in national security and technology as an adjunct professor teaching graduate-level cybersecurity at St. Mary’s University and Wake Forest University. He is also the founder of IronClad Family, a company focused on protecting families and individuals from digital threats, identity theft, and modern information warfare.
Over the past two decades, Lester has conducted an extensive independent investigation into U.S. foreign policy after noticing a stark contrast between what he witnessed overseas and what was presented to the public at home. That research culminated in his book *We Are the Bad Guys: How the U.S. Wages War, Controls Economies, and Calls It Freedom*, a controversial examination of American military intervention, economic influence, and global power structures.
With the launch of Operation Epic Fury on February 28, global tensions and strategic maneuvering have once again taken center stage, making Lester’s analysis of geopolitical strategy and modern warfare more relevant than ever. Follow the market here: https://polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-invade-iran-by-march-31
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Michael Lester Links:
LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/mtlester
Books - https://michaeltlester.com
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Table of contents
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