America’s NBA MVP Drought, Rookie Receiver Mania, and Million Dollar Picks With Kirk Goldsberry, Danny Heifetz, and Joe House
4Digest
This podcast episode features Bill Simmons discussing upcoming content, including NBA trends with Kurt Goldsbury, fantasy football strategies with Danny Heifetz, and "Million Dollar Picks" for the NFL. Bill begins by announcing upcoming content, including the "Rewatchables" podcast and a live show in New York City. He then welcomes Kurt Goldsbury to discuss five trends in the upcoming NBA season: the potential slowdown of the offensive explosion, the return of physicality, engineered parity, the dominance of international players, and the resurgence of the center position. Next, Bill welcomes Danny Heifetz, a fantasy football expert, to discuss the impact of injuries on fantasy football and to provide his top five fantasy assets. Danny highlights players who are undervalued or have the potential to breakout, emphasizing the importance of considering player potential and the impact of injuries. Finally, Bill and Danny discuss their "Million Dollar Picks" for the upcoming week, focusing on players who have the potential to outperform expectations. They also discuss the impact of injuries and the overall state of the NFL.
Outlines
Introduction and Upcoming Content
Bill Simmons introduces the podcast, mentioning upcoming NBA and football content, including million dollar picks. He also mentions the "Rewatchables" podcast and the upcoming movie they will be reviewing.
"Rewatchables" and Upcoming Movie
Bill discusses the "Rewatchables" podcast and announces that they will be reviewing the horror movie "Poltergeist" on the upcoming Monday.
Live Show Announcement and Movie Recommendation
Bill announces their upcoming live show in New York City on October 7th, featuring "Silence of the Lambs." He encourages attendees to watch the movie beforehand.
Podcast Recommendations
Bill recommends the relaunched "60 Songs That Explain the 90s" podcast, hosted by Rob Harvilla, and highlights the first episode featuring "Mr. Brightside" by The Killers.
Podcast and YouTube Channel Information
Bill provides information on where listeners can find the podcast and related content, including the Bill Simmons channel on YouTube and the "Ringer Movies" channel.
Upcoming Podcast Guests and Topics
Bill outlines the upcoming guests and topics for the podcast, including NBA trends with Kurt Goldsbury, fantasy football with Danny Heifetz, and "Million Dollar Picks" with Joe House.
NBA Trends with Kurt Goldsbury
Bill welcomes Kurt Goldsbury, a former Grantland colleague, to discuss five trends in the upcoming NBA season.
NBA Trends: Offensive Explosion
Kurt discusses the trend of offensive explosion in the NBA, highlighting the significant increase in offensive efficiency over the past decade. He presents evidence suggesting that this trend may be slowing down.
NBA Trends: Physicality is Back
Kurt discusses the return of physicality in the NBA, citing a shift in officiating and a potential move towards a more FIBA-style game. He argues that this change could benefit teams with strong physical defenses and impact player performance.
NBA Trends: Engineered Parity
Kurt discusses the trend of engineered parity in the NBA, highlighting the league's efforts to create a more balanced competitive landscape. He believes that this trend will continue and could lead to a more unpredictable season.
NBA Trends: American Superstars are Washed
Kurt discusses the trend of international players dominating the NBA, particularly at the MVP level. He argues that this trend reflects the global nature of the sport and could continue for the foreseeable future.
NBA Trends: The Center Position is Back
Kurt discusses the return of the center position in the NBA, highlighting the emergence of skilled big men who can shoot, pass, and rebound. He believes that this trend is a result of the evolution of the game and the increased value of versatile big men.
Fantasy Football with Danny Heifetz
Bill welcomes Danny Heifetz, a fantasy football expert, to discuss the impact of injuries on fantasy football and to provide his top five fantasy assets.
Danny Heifetz's Top 5 Fantasy Assets
Danny shares his top five fantasy assets, highlighting players who are undervalued or have the potential to breakout. He emphasizes the importance of considering player potential and the impact of injuries.
Million Dollar Picks
Bill and Danny discuss their "Million Dollar Picks" for the upcoming week, focusing on players who have the potential to outperform expectations. They also discuss the impact of injuries and the overall state of the NFL.
Dolphins and Bills: The Worst Teams in the League?
The conversation starts with a discussion about the Dolphins and Bills, both of whom are struggling with injuries and poor performance. The speakers discuss the possibility of both teams being the worst in the league, with the Dolphins being particularly bad due to injuries.
Mike McDaniel's Coaching Style
The discussion shifts to Mike McDaniel's coaching style, with the speakers criticizing his lack of adaptability and his reliance on gimmicks. They compare his approach to spinning a vinyl record without knowing what songs people want to hear.
Brandon Aiyuk: A By-Law Player
The conversation turns to Brandon Aiyuk, a wide receiver for the 49ers who has been largely invisible this season despite being paid a high salary. The speakers discuss how his situation is a classic example of a "by-law" player, where everything about the situation is perfect for the team but the player himself is not performing well.
Brock Purdy's Rise
The speakers praise Brock Purdy's performance, comparing him to Patrick Mahomes in his scrambling ability and pushing the ball downfield. They discuss how Purdy's success, combined with the 49ers' injuries at wide receiver, makes Aiyuk a potential breakout player in fantasy football.
The Unpredictability of Fantasy Football
The conversation shifts to the unpredictability of fantasy football, with the speakers highlighting the unexpected success of players like Jaden Reed and Nico Collins. They discuss how even the most experienced fantasy players struggle to predict the future, and how even NFL teams often make mistakes in drafting and evaluating players.
Quarterback Strategies in Fantasy Football
The speakers discuss quarterback strategies in fantasy football, arguing that it's not worth spending a lot of money on a pocket passer. They recommend focusing on quarterbacks who can run, as they are more predictable and stable.
The Importance of Trades in Fantasy Football
The speakers discuss the importance of trades in fantasy football, arguing that it's the best way to optimize your roster. They highlight the success of a league member who has eight running backs, and how this strategy allows him to make advantageous trades.
The Blurb Test in Fantasy Football
The speakers discuss the "blurb test" in fantasy football, which involves checking the Yahoo blurb for a player to see if they are likely to be benched. They argue that roster trends and blurbs can have a significant impact on fantasy decisions.
The Ringer Fantasy Football Podcast
The conversation shifts to the Ringer Fantasy Football podcast, with the speakers discussing its growth and popularity. They highlight the importance of including "fantasy" in the title for SEO purposes, and discuss the various platforms where the show is available.
Million Dollar Picks: Week Five
The speakers discuss their "Million Dollar Picks" segment, where they make predictions for the upcoming week's NFL games. They discuss their stay-away games, intrigued games, and marked-down games.
Browns vs. Commanders: A Dangerous Game
The speakers discuss the Browns vs. Commanders game, with the Commanders being a popular pick due to the emergence of Jaden Daniels. However, the speakers believe this is a dangerous game and recommend staying away.
Texans vs. Bills: A Compelling Case for Houston
The speakers discuss the Texans vs. Bills game, with the Texans being a home underdog. They discuss the Texans' potential to exploit the Bills' weak defense, but ultimately decide to stay away due to Josh Allen's presence.
Patriots vs. Dolphins: A Race for the 32nd Spot
The speakers discuss the Patriots vs. Dolphins game, with the Patriots being favored despite both teams struggling with injuries and poor performance. They ultimately decide to stay away from this game, considering it a race for the worst team in the league.
Jaguars vs. Colts: A Risky Bet
The speakers discuss the Jaguars vs. Colts game, with the Jaguars being favored despite having some of the worst metrics in the league. They acknowledge the Jaguars' recent success against the Colts, but ultimately decide to stay away due to the Colts' potential to start Joe Flacco.
Vikings vs. Jets: A London Game with Potential
The speakers discuss the Vikings vs. Jets game, with the Vikings being favored in London. They highlight the Vikings' strong defense and the Jets' struggles on both sides of the ball, making this a potentially easy win for Minnesota.
Ravens vs. Bengals: A Nightmare Matchup for Cincinnati
The speakers discuss the Ravens vs. Bengals game, with the Ravens being favored. They believe this is a nightmare matchup for the Bengals, as the Ravens are strong against the run and the Bengals struggle in that area.
Packers vs. Rams: A Public Game with Potential for a Shootout
The speakers discuss the Packers vs. Rams game, with the Packers being favored. They believe this is a public game, with many people expecting a Packers win. However, they also believe the Rams' offense has the potential to keep up with the Packers, leading to a shootout.
Saints vs. Chiefs: A Chance for New Orleans to Upset
The speakers discuss the Saints vs. Chiefs game, with the Saints being a home underdog. They believe the Saints have a chance to upset the Chiefs, who are struggling with injuries and inconsistency.
Seahawks vs. Giants: A Short Rest for Seattle
The speakers discuss the Seahawks vs. Giants game, with the Seahawks being favored. They acknowledge the Giants' recent success and the Seahawks' short rest, but ultimately believe Seattle will win the game.
49ers vs. Cardinals: A Punt for the Niners
The speakers discuss the 49ers vs. Cardinals game, with the 49ers being favored. They are hesitant to bet on this game, as they believe the Cardinals have the potential to pull off an upset.
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Keywords
Offensive Efficiency
A measure of how well a team scores points per possession. It reflects the effectiveness of a team's offense in converting scoring opportunities.
FIBA Basketball
The international governing body for basketball, known for its more physical and tactical style of play compared to the NBA.
Engineered Parity
The deliberate creation of a more balanced competitive landscape in a league, often achieved through salary cap rules and draft lottery systems.
Global Sport
A sport that is played and followed by people from all over the world, with a growing international presence and participation.
Center Position
The position in basketball typically occupied by the tallest player on the court, responsible for rebounding, defense, and scoring near the basket.
Fantasy Football
A game where participants draft virtual teams of real-life NFL players and compete based on their players' performance in actual games.
Million Dollar Picks
A segment on the Ringer Fantasy Football podcast where the hosts make predictions for the upcoming week's NFL games. They use a variety of factors to make their picks, including team performance, injuries, and matchups.
Stay-Away Game
A game that the hosts of the Ringer Fantasy Football podcast recommend avoiding betting on. This is typically because they believe the game is too unpredictable or because they don't have a strong opinion on the outcome.
Q&A
What are some of the key trends that Kurt Goldsbury sees shaping the upcoming NBA season?
Kurt identifies five key trends: the potential slowdown of the offensive explosion, the return of physicality, engineered parity, the dominance of international players, and the resurgence of the center position.
How might the return of physicality in the NBA impact player performance and team strategies?
Kurt believes that increased physicality could benefit teams with strong physical defenses and impact players who rely on drawing fouls or creating space with their offensive moves.
What are some of Danny Heifetz's top fantasy assets for the upcoming NFL season?
Danny highlights five players he believes are undervalued or have breakout potential: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Xavier Worthy, Josh Jacobs, Joe Mixon, and Tyreek Hill.
Why does Danny believe that Tyreek Hill and Devon Achane are valuable fantasy assets despite the Miami Dolphins' struggles?
Danny argues that Hill and Achane have the potential to turn around the Dolphins' season if they can regain their form and provide a spark to the offense.
What is the significance of the "average separation score" (ASS) statistic in fantasy football?
The ASS statistic provides a more nuanced understanding of a receiver's ability to get open, considering factors like coverage breakdowns and individual skill.
How does the "money ballerification" of rookie contracts impact the NFL?
The increasing focus on financial benefits of rookie contracts leads to teams often throwing young players into the fire early, potentially impacting their development and performance.
What are some of the key factors to consider when making fantasy football decisions?
Factors like player performance, injuries, matchups, and roster trends can all influence fantasy decisions. It's important to stay up-to-date on the latest news and to use a variety of resources to make informed choices.
What are some of the most common mistakes that fantasy players make?
Common mistakes include overpaying for players, relying too heavily on preseason rankings, and not making enough trades. It's important to be patient and to make calculated decisions based on the latest information.
What are some of the best strategies for winning in fantasy football?
Strategies include focusing on quarterbacks who can run, making advantageous trades, and staying up-to-date on the latest news and injuries. It's also important to have a strong understanding of the game and to be able to make adjustments based on the latest information.
Show Notes
The Ringer's Bill Simmons is joined by Kirk Goldsberry to talk about his five favorite NBA trends as we approach the 2024-25 NBA season (2:44 ). Next, Bill talks with Danny Heifetz about his five favorite distressed fantasy football players worth trading for (45:44 ). Finally, Bill is joined by Joe House to discuss the NFL slate (1:19:26 ), before making the Million Dollar Picks for NFL Week 5 (1:59:17 ).
Host: Bill Simmons
Guests: Kirk Goldsberry, Danny Heifetz, and Joe House
Producer: Kyle Crichton
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