DiscoverMedley AdvisorsArgentina: Trump “stress” test for Milei
Argentina: Trump “stress” test for Milei

Argentina: Trump “stress” test for Milei

Update: 2025-02-06
Share

Description

Radical US Republicans are looking 5,000 miles south for inspiration as they take their own "chainsaw" to government. Sixteen months since taking office as Argentina's president, Javier Milei has met his promises to drive down inflation and generate a primary surplus while sustaining public approval.

For an assessment of the exportability and sustainability of the Milei model, Pepijn Bergsen talked to Medley Advisors' Argentina specialist, Ignacio Labaqui.

"I don't think the public finances of the US and Argentina are comparable even if both countries have run large fiscal deficits for a while," says Labaqui. To meet his goals, Milei froze public spending, including pensions, and bypassed Congress in budget-making. "You could streamline some expenditures in the US, but I don't think the Milei formula is basically replicable".

Aside from hubris, Labaqui sees the greatest threat to Milei as "a deterioration of the international environment" due to US President Donald Trump. "Trump is very close to Milei ideologically ... but the systemic consequence of Trump's policy could put Milei's economic approach under stress. If Trump results in higher interest rates and a stronger dollar, that's going to lead to the appreciation of other [emerging market] currencies that will aggravate the strength of the peso".

Comments 
00:00
00:00
x

0.5x

0.8x

1.0x

1.25x

1.5x

2.0x

3.0x

Sleep Timer

Off

End of Episode

5 Minutes

10 Minutes

15 Minutes

30 Minutes

45 Minutes

60 Minutes

120 Minutes

Argentina: Trump “stress” test for Milei

Argentina: Trump “stress” test for Milei

Medley Advisors