Australias defence strategy is evolving as the world becomes smaller and more interconnected. Professor Clive Williams predicts ten trends for 2026 that could impact Australia, including strained alliances, bold military moves, and arms buildup in the Indo-Pacific. The Taiwan Strait is a potential flashpoint, with Chinas actions potentially drawing Australia into diplomatic or military support for allies. Russias war in Ukraine is turning it into a fortress state, cozying up to China, Iran, and North Korea, and splitting the world into harder blocs. The Middle East is also a source of chaos, with Israel, Iran, and proxies disrupting energy and shipping. Climate disasters in the Pacific are demanding more from Australias defence forces. As arms control crumbles and technology advances, Australia can no longer rely on geography for protection. The challenge will be protecting Australias interests without getting drawn into fights that dont serve its needs.

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