Can Trump Voters Still Change Their Minds?
1Digest
This podcast episode features Republican strategist Sarah Longwell, who has been conducting focus groups with voters for years. Longwell discusses her personal journey as a Republican and how she became disillusioned with the party under Donald Trump. She then delves into the different types of undecided voters and how they are likely to vote in the upcoming election. Longwell analyzes Trump's political strategy, which she describes as based on dominance politics and in-group language that alienates swing voters. She also discusses the impact of the assassination attempts on Trump and how they have affected her focus groups. Longwell explores the characteristics of swing voters and how they are increasingly willing to vote for Democrats as the Republican Party becomes less recognizable. She argues that Trump's insanity and lack of focus on policy issues alienate these voters. Longwell then examines Kamala Harris's strategy of appealing to centrist Republicans and how she is using validators like Adam Kinsinger to build a coalition. She believes these endorsements are effective in persuading voters who are disillusioned with the Republican Party. The episode further explores the impact of abortion on the election, highlighting how it is a key dividing line between voters. Longwell argues that JD Vance's stance on abortion is alienating women voters and that Trump's lack of a clear position on the issue is hurting him. She also discusses the importance of the economy to voters and how Kamala Harris is focusing on the middle class. Longwell believes that Trump's focus on tax cuts for the rich is alienating working-class voters. Finally, Longwell discusses Project 2025, a plan to implement a white Christian nationalist agenda, and how it is a major concern for voters. She argues that Trump's denial of involvement in the project is alienating voters who are concerned about the direction of the country. Longwell concludes by comparing Hillary Clinton and Kamala Harris, arguing that Harris is a new face and that voters are not as familiar with her, which could be an advantage in the election. She predicts that Harris will win the election, citing her closing of the enthusiasm gap and Trump's self-inflicted damage.
Outlines
The 2024 Election: Undecided Voters, Trump's Strategy, and the Impact of Abortion
Republican strategist Sarah Longwell analyzes the 2024 election, focusing on undecided voters, Trump's political strategy, and the impact of abortion and white Christian nationalism. She discusses the different types of undecided voters, Trump's dominance politics and in-group language, and the influence of abortion and Project 2025 on the election.
Kamala Harris's Strategy and the Rise of White Christian Nationalism
Longwell examines Kamala Harris's strategy of appealing to centrist Republicans and how she is using validators like Adam Kinsinger to build a coalition. She also discusses Project 2025, a plan to implement a white Christian nationalist agenda, and how it is a major concern for voters.
Longwell's Prediction and the Importance of Enthusiasm
Longwell predicts that Kamala Harris will win the election, citing her closing of the enthusiasm gap and Trump's self-inflicted damage. She believes that the election will come down to the Republicans who are willing to vote for Harris and those who refuse to vote for Trump.
Keywords
Dominance Politics
A political strategy that emphasizes power and control, often through aggressive tactics and a focus on winning at all costs. It can involve using fear and intimidation to achieve goals.
In-Group Language
Language used by a specific group of people that is often difficult for outsiders to understand. It can include slang, jargon, or inside jokes.
Swing Voters
Voters who are not firmly aligned with either major political party and can swing their vote to either candidate in an election. They are often considered crucial in determining the outcome of close elections.
Validators
Individuals or groups who are respected by a particular audience and whose endorsement can influence the opinions of others. They can be used to lend credibility to a candidate or cause.
White Christian Nationalism
A political ideology that seeks to establish a white Christian nation and often promotes discriminatory policies against non-white and non-Christian groups.
Enthusiasm Gap
The difference in the level of enthusiasm between supporters of two opposing candidates or parties. A candidate with a higher level of enthusiasm among their supporters is often considered to have an advantage in an election.
Q&A
How has the Republican Party changed under Donald Trump?
Sarah Longwell argues that Trump has fundamentally changed the Republican Party, moving it away from traditional conservatism and towards a more populist and nationalist ideology. This shift has alienated many moderate Republicans and led to a growing divide within the party.
What are the different types of undecided voters and how are they likely to vote?
Longwell identifies three types of undecided voters: those who are simply not paying attention to politics, those who dislike both candidates but are trying to decide which one they dislike less, and those who are not motivated to vote at all. She believes that the outcome of the election will depend on how these voters are persuaded.
How has the assassination attempt on Donald Trump affected the election?
Longwell believes that the assassination attempts have not had a significant impact on the election. She argues that voters are already so polarized that these events are unlikely to change their minds. However, she does believe that they have shifted the focus of the election back to Trump.
What is Kamala Harris's strategy for winning the election?
Longwell argues that Harris is trying to appeal to centrist Republicans by building a coalition that includes both Democrats and Republicans. She is using validators like Adam Kinsinger to lend credibility to her campaign and show that she is a moderate candidate.
What is the impact of abortion on the election?
Longwell believes that abortion is a key dividing line in the election and that it is particularly important to women voters. She argues that JD Vance's stance on abortion is alienating women voters and that Trump's lack of a clear position on the issue is hurting him.
Show Notes
The political strategist Sarah Longwell has dedicated the last seven years to understanding why so many Republicans find Donald Trump irresistible, and how they might be persuaded to vote for someone else. Longwell is a lifelong Republican who became a leader of the Never Trump wing of the G.O.P., and her communications firm, Longwell Partners, has been running weekly focus groups including swing-state voters, undecided voters, and discontented Trump supporters. These are the people who might determine the winner of the 2024 election. “I think that Donald Trump has done more damage to himself with a lot of these people who held their nose and voted for him the second time; [after] January 6th, a lot of them are going to leave it blank,” Longwell told David Remnick. “At the end of the day, what this election will come down to is the Republicans who get there on Kamala Harris, and the ones who just refuse to get there on Trump.” Longwell publishes the political news site the Bulwark, and was also the first female national board chair of the Log Cabin Republicans, which represents L.G.B.T.Q. conservatives.
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