ARK Invest Big Ideas 2025: Convergence of Innovation

This briefing document summarizes the key themes and important insights from ARK Investment Management LLC's "Big Ideas 2025: Convergence" report, published on February 4, 2025. The report highlights significant technological advancements and their potential to disrupt various industries and create massive market opportunities.

I. Overarching Themes: Convergence and Disruptive Innovation

The core premise of the ARK Big Ideas 2025 report is the concept of "Convergence," where various disruptive technologies are reaching critical compounding thresholds and interacting to create exponential growth and new market opportunities.

• Compounding Growth and Convergence: The report draws a parallel between the compounding growth of computing power and other disruptive innovations, illustrating how seemingly small initial growth can lead to massive scale. The "Wheat Grains" analogy demonstrates this, where small increases in "rows" lead to exponential increases in "value" over time, mirroring the rapid expansion seen in technology adoption.


• Quote: "Row 2X Wheat Grains Value Year Computers Crossed The Same Compounding Threshold... 40 1 trillion 1 ton of gold 2018"


• AI as a Catalyst: Artificial intelligence is presented as a fundamental catalyst for unlocking massive market opportunities across multiple sectors.


• Quote: "As AI continues to accelerate, robotaxis should proliferate, drug development timelines and costs should collapse, and AI agents should solve software engineering challenges autonomously, monitoring and modifying systems around the clock."


• Disruptive Innovation Outpacing Traditional Economy: The report contrasts the growth of disruptive innovation (including cryptocurrencies) with non-disruptive GDP and even large incumbent technology companies (Mag 6), showing significantly higher Compound Annual Growth Rates (CAGR) for disruptive technologies.


• Data Point: Disruptive Innovation shows a 50% CAGR, compared to 24% for Mag 6 and -2% for GDP Non-disruptive.


• Accelerated Technology Adoption: The adoption rates of new consumer hardware, such as smartphones, smart home devices, and projected AI hardware, demonstrate a consistent trend of faster penetration compared to older technologies like PCs.

II. Key Disruptive Technologies and Their Impact

The report delves into specific technological domains, detailing their current state, future potential, and associated market implications.

A. AI Agents

AI agents are poised to revolutionize various aspects of online commerce and software engineering.

• Impact on E-commerce: AI purchasing agents are expected to generate substantial revenue for digital wallet platforms, ranging from $40 billion (base case) to $200 billion (bull case) in 2030, based on lead-generation take rates.


• Software Engineering Automation: AI agents are anticipated to autonomously solve software engineering challenges, monitoring and modifying systems around the clock, leading to increased efficiency.

B. Bitcoin

Bitcoin is presented as a maturing asset class with characteristics of a store of value, gaining institutional and corporate adoption.

• Record ETF Launch: Spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced the most successful ETF launch in history, attracting over $4 billion in inflows on their first day, significantly surpassing the gold ETF's initial performance.


• Quote: "The Spot Bitcoin ETF Complex Was The Most Successful ETF Launch In History On their first day of trading, the spot bitcoin ETFs attracted over $4 billion of inflows, a record high for ETF launches, surpassing the $1.2 billion that flowed into the gold ETF in its first month in November 2004."


• Scarce Asset with Predictable Monetary Policy: Bitcoin's fourth halving reduced its inflation rate to approximately 0.9%, falling below gold's long-term supply growth, underscoring its scarcity.


• Superior Risk-Adjusted Returns: In 2024, Bitcoin demonstrated an annual return of 122.2% with a Sharpe Ratio of 1.4 and a 5-Year CAGR of 67.2%, outperforming gold, equities, and other major asset classes.


• Network Security and Transaction Growth: Despite a 50% decline in miner revenue post-halving, Bitcoin's hash rate reached an all-time high, indicating strong long-term conviction among miners. The launch of the Runes protocol led to a record high in daily transaction counts.


• Market Resilience: Bitcoin successfully absorbed significant selling pressure in 2024 from events like the German government's bitcoin sales and the Mt. Gox creditor repayments, followed by price rallies.


• Increasing Corporate Adoption: Seventy-four public companies now hold bitcoin on their balance sheets, with the total value quintupling from $11 billion in 2023 to $55 billion in 2024. MicroStrategy (MSTR) holds the largest amount at 446,400 BTC, representing 58.7% of its market cap.


• Store of Value Characteristics: Bitcoin's transaction velocity dropped to a 14-year low in 2024, while supply held for three years or more reached an all-time high, reinforcing its role as a store of value.


• 2030 Price Targets: ARK's 2030 price targets for Bitcoin are aggressive: Bear Case: $300,000 (CAGR ~21%), Base Case: $710,000 (CAGR ~40%), Bull Case: $1.5 million (CAGR ~58%). These targets are based on Bitcoin's potential to capture market share across various asset classes (institutional investment, digital gold, emerging market safe haven, nation-state treasury, corporate treasury, and on-chain financial services).

C. Stablecoins

Stablecoins are a rapidly growing segment of digital assets, challenging traditional payment processors.

• Transaction Volume Surpassing Traditional Payments: In 2024, the annualized transaction value of stablecoins reached $15.6 trillion, significantly exceeding Visa (119%) and Mastercard (200%), despite a lower transaction count, indicating a much higher value per transaction.


• Innovation and Growth: Projects like Ethena Labs are thriving, demonstrating significant innovation in the non-fiat-backed stablecoin market.


• Dominance and Penetration: USDT (Tether) and USDC (Circle) dominate the stablecoin landscape, accounting for 90% of the total supply. Stablecoins are "multichain" and have penetrated almost every major Layer 1 blockchain.


• Record Active Addresses: Monthly active stablecoin addresses hit an all-time high of 23 million in December 2024, with Tron being the leading network, favored in emerging markets due to low fees.


• Dollar Dominance and Future Expansion: Dollar-pegged stablecoins constitute over 98% of the supply. ARK suggests the market will expand to include Asian currency-backed stablecoins.


• Retail Adoption on Layer 2s: Retail investors are increasingly using Layer 2 blockchains (e.g., Arbitrum, Base, Optimism) for cheaper and more efficient stablecoin transactions, while institutions remain on Ethereum's base layer for larger transactions.


• Use Cases: Peer-to-Peer (P2P) transactions and personal wallet storage are the dominant stablecoin use cases, showing resilience beyond trading. DeFi usage (DEXs, Bridges, Money Markets) is expected to retake market share from P2P in the coming years.


• Financial Performance: Tether's financial performance is "stunning," generating significant net income with a small headcount compared to traditional financial institutions.


• Increased Demand for US Government Debt: Stablecoin issuers are increasing demand for US government debt as collateral, counterbalancing "de-dollarization" trends. Tether and Circle combined hold more US Treasury securities than several countries.


• Yield-Bearing Stablecoins: The market for yield-bearing stablecoins is growing, allowing users to earn risk-free rates.

D. Scaling Blockchains

Innovations in blockchain technology are addressing scalability and fostering decentralized finance (DeFi).

• Layer 2 Growth: Ethereum Layer 2 solutions are processing significantly more daily transactions than Ethereum's mainnet, improving scalability and user experience.


• Decentralized Exchange (DEX) Challenge: DEXs are challenging centralized exchanges in both spot and derivatives trading, leveraging efficient, small teams compared to the massive headcounts of centralized venues like Binance.


• Restaking: Platforms like Eigenlayer are leading the growth in ETH staked in restaking protocols, enabling staked assets to be used for multiple purposes.


• Prediction Markets: Decentralized prediction markets like Polymarket are seeing increasing unique addresses and trading volume across various categories, including elections and politics.


• Developer Activity: The Ethereum ecosystem, including its Layer 2s, continues to attract the highest number of crypto developers.

E. Robotaxis

Robotaxis are poised to transform personal mobility by lowering costs and enhancing safety, creating a massive market opportunity.

• EV Market Share Growth: Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) are rapidly gaining market share from Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles in global sales.


• Cost Efficiency: Robotaxis are projected to drastically reduce the cost per mile to $0.25 globally by 2035, significantly cheaper than human-driven ride-hail and personal cars in 2024.


• Pioneering Regions: The US and China are leading the development and deployment of robotaxis.


• Autonomous Miles: Waymo and Baidu Apollo Go are accumulating significant autonomous miles, with Waymo completing approximately 175,000 weekly rides.


• Market Opportunity: Ride-hail could become a ~$10 trillion addr