Host Dr. Elizabeth Economy sits down with Rhodium Group Co-founder Daniel Rosen for an in-depth look at the current state of the Chinese economy, the challenges it will face going forward and how a second Trump presidency may affect it. 

 

With an economy that is currently facing reduced growth, a cratering real estate sector, and increased scrutiny from US and EU counterparts over its exports of overcapacity in EVs, Rosen describes the issues at the heart of the problem: a failure to meaningfully reform the fiscal system, including rebalancing the share of central and local government revenues, weak domestic consumption and over-reliance on investment and exports, and high levels of local government debt. Rosen also outlines the challenges China faces on the global stage with its grand-scale infrastructure initiative, the Belt and Road.

 

Rosen concludes that without a serious reboot of economic reform and opening the Chinese economy will only continue to lose steam.

 

The two also discuss the effects of what a second Trump presidency, and tariffs up to 60%, may bring to China. And while it may not be time to press the panic button yet, an expected increase in tariffs is almost certain to have major macroeconomic effects.

ABOUT THE SPEAKERS

Daniel H. Rosen is the co-founder of Rhodium Group and leads the firm’s work on China. Mr. Rosen has worked professionally on China’s domestic economy and global commercial relations since 1992. He is widely recognized for his research on US-China relations and Asian commercial dynamics. He is affiliated with numerous think tanks focused on international economics and is an Adjunct Associate Professor at Columbia University.

From 2000-2001, Mr. Rosen was Senior Adviser for International Economic Policy at the White House National Economic Council and National Security Council. He is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and the National Committee on US-China Relations.

A native of New York City, Mr. Rosen graduated with distinction from the graduate School of Foreign Service of Georgetown University (MSFS) and with honors in Asian Studies and Economics from the University of Texas, Austin (BA).

Elizabeth Economy is the Hargrove Senior Fellow and co-director of the Program on the US, China, and the World at the Hoover Institution. From 2021-2023, she took leave from Hoover to serve as the senior advisor for China to the US secretary of commerce. Before joining Hoover, she was the C.V. Starr Senior Fellow and director, Asia Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is the author of four books on China, including most recently The World According to China (Polity, 2021), and the co-editor of two volumes. She serves on the boards of the National Endowment for Democracy and the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations. She is a member of the Aspen Strategy Group and Council on Foreign Relations and serves as a book reviewer for Foreign Affairs. 

RELATED SOURCES

• End of the Line: The Cost of Faltering Reforms


• A Diversification Framework for China


• Rhodium Group

FOLLOW OUR GUEST ON SOCIAL MEDIA

• Dan Rosen on X: x.com/rhodiumdan


• Dan Rosen on LinkedIn: linkedin.com/in/daniel-rosen-2236b36

ABOUT THE SERIES

China Considered with Elizabeth Economy is a Hoover Institution podcast series that features in-depth conversations with leading political figures, scholars, and activists from around the world. The series explores the ideas, events, and forces shaping China’s future and its global relationships, offering high-level expertise, clear-eyed analysis, and valuable insights to demystify China’s evolving dynamics and what they may mean for ordinary citizens and key decision makers across societies, governments, and the private sector.