Tuesday, October 29, 2024

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  The presidential election is 7 days away.

  
  


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  📈 Polling Vibes.

  
  


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  Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)
  
  Harris +1.3 points (FiveThirtyEight)
  
  Harris +0.9 points (Nate Silver)
  
  Harris +1.3 points (The Economist)
  
  Trump +0.4 points (RealClearPolitics)
  
  Harris +1.6 points (Split Ticket)

  
  


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  🔮 Forecasting Vibes.

  
  


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  Trump wins 53 times out of 100. Harris wins 46 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)
  
  Trump wins 55 times out of 100. Harris wins 45 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
  
  Trump wins 56 times out of 100. Harris wins 44 times out of 100. (The Economist)
  
  Trump wins 52 times out of 100. Harris wins 48 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)
  
  Harris wins 52 times out of 100. Trump wins 47 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
  
  Harris wins 52 times out of 100. Trump wins 46 times out of 100. (CNalysis)
  
  Trump wins 63 times out of 100. Harris wins 36 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)

  
  


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  Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, not the final result.

  
  


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  💡 Poll results depend on pollster choices as much as voters’ decisions. “Simple changes in how to weight a single poll can move the Harris-Trump margin 8 points.” (Good Authority)

  
  

1/ Kamala Harris will challenge Americans to “turn the page” on Trump in a speech from the Ellipse in Washington – the same spot where Trump directed his supporters on Jan. 6, 2021, to “fight like hell” and march on the Capitol. Harris will step onstage around 7:30 p.m. tonight and, according to the prepared remarks, she’ll detail how “Trump has spent a decade trying to keep the American people divided and afraid of each other. That’s who he is. But America, I am here tonight to say: That’s not who we are.” Harris will frame the election as a choice between two different visions for the country, saying “Trump intends to use the United States military against American citizens who simply disagree with him. People he calls – quote – ‘the enemy from within.’ This is not a candidate for president who is thinking about how to make your life better.” The campaign expects as many as 40,000 people to attend, according to an amended National Park Service permit for the event. (NBC News / WTF Just Happened Today? for more news and headlines, brought to you by Matt Kiser. The WTFJHT Podcast is narrated and produced by Joe Amditis.