Wednesday, October 30, 2024

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  The presidential election is 6 days away.

  
  


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  📈 Polling Vibes.

  
  


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  Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)
  
  Harris +1.4 points (FiveThirtyEight)
  
  Harris +1.1 points (Nate Silver)
  
  Harris +1.4 points (The Economist)
  
  Trump +0.4 points (RealClearPolitics)
  
  Harris +1.5 points (Split Ticket)

  
  


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  🔮 Forecasting Vibes.

  
  


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  Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, not the final result.

  
  


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  Trump wins 51 times out of 100. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)
  
  Trump wins 54 times out of 100. Harris wins 46 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
  
  Trump wins 50 times out of 100. Harris wins 50 times out of 100. (The Economist)
  
  Trump wins 50 times out of 100. Harris wins 49 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)
  
  Harris wins 52 times out of 100. Trump wins 47 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
  
  Harris wins 52 times out of 100. Trump wins 46 times out of 100. (CNalysis)
  
  Trump wins 62 times out of 100. Harris wins 38 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)

  
  


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  💡 Poll results depend on pollster choices as much as voters’ decisions. “Simple changes in how to weight a single poll can move the Harris-Trump margin 8 points.” (Good Authority)

  
  


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  💡 How not to freak out about the election. “Do you have a problem now?” “Narrow your life down to this moment. Your life situation may be full of problems – most life situations are – but find out if you have any problem at this moment. Not tomorrow or in ten minutes, but now.”(Oliver Burkeman)

  
  


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  🗳️ Early voting is surging across the U.S. Explore the data. “Early voting has begun in states across the country where voters are able to cast their ballots either in person or via mail.” (NBC News)

  
  


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  ⏳ When polls close in each state and how long it may take to count votes. “Vote counting isn’t expected to be nearly as slow as it was last time around, but there’s a chance we won’t know the outcome of the presidential race — and possibly even control of Congress — on election night.” (Washington Post)

  
  

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1/ House Speaker Mike Johnson promised a “massive r...

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