Thursday, October 31, 2024

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  The presidential election is in 5 days.

  
  


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  📈 Polling Vibes.

  
  


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  Harris +1.0 points (New York Times)
  
  Harris +1.2 points (FiveThirtyEight)
  
  Harris +1.1 points (Nate Silver)
  
  Harris +1.5 points (The Economist)
  
  Trump +0.5 points (RealClearPolitics)
  
  Harris +1.6 points (Split Ticket)

  
  


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  🔮 Forecasting Vibes.

  
  


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  Trump wins 52 times out of 100. (FiveThirtyEight)
  
  Trump wins 53 times out of 100. (Nate Silver)
  
  Harris wins 50 times out of 100. (The Economist)
  
  Trump wins 52 times out of 100. (JHK Forecasts)
  
  Harris wins 52 times out of 100. (Split Ticket)
  
  Trump wins 51 times out of 100. (270toWin)
  
  Trump wins 53 times out of 100. (The Hill)
  
  Trump wins 60 times out of 100. (Election Betting Odds)

  
  


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  Editor’s note: Forecasts are probabilities, not certainties. They reflect the current vibes, not the final result.

  
  


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  💡 Poll results depend on pollster choices as much as voters’ decisions. “Simple changes in how to weight a single poll can move the Harris-Trump margin 8 points.” (Good Authority)

  
  


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  💡 How not to freak out about the election. “Do you have a problem now?” “Narrow your life down to this moment. Your life situation may be full of problems – most life situations are – but find out if you have any problem at this moment. Not tomorrow or in ten minutes, but now.”(Oliver Burkeman)

  
  


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  ⏳ When polls close in each state and how long it may take to count votes. “Vote counting isn’t expected to be nearly as slow as it was last time around, but there’s a chance we won’t know the outcome of the presidential race — and possibly even control of Congress — on election night.” (Washington Post)

  
  

1/ Trump vowed to “protect” women “whether the women like it or not” after he said his “people” told him it was “inappropriate.” He added: “I’m going to do it whether the women like it or not; I’m going to protect them.” The comments follow Trump remarks in recent months that he would “protect women” and make sure they wouldn’t be “thinking about abortion” despite appointing the three justices to the Supreme Court who formed ...

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