On today’s episode, we’re diving into what’s going on with Near-Earth Asteroid 2024 YR4. You may have heard online that this asteroid is on a trajectory to impact Earth on December 22nd, 2032. It’s captured the zeitgeist and everyone’s talking about it. 

But what can we do in the meantime? We say - Let’s learn! We need to science the $%#t out of this one! We’re going to explore the idea of planetary defense, the level of impact if it does hit Earth in 2032, and how lucky we are to have successful missions like DART and HERA to lean on for our “armageddon” moment. 

We'll also try to answer these questions:

• What is the Asteroid?
• What is the impact potential on Earth?
• How was it discovered?
• Why do the impact probabilities keep changing?
• What can we do about it?
• Why don't we just NUKE it?

Keywords:

asteroid 2024 yr4, planetary defense, impact probability, kinetic impactor, Dart mission, Hera mission, James Webb Space Telescope, automated detection, NASA funding, public interest, Tunguska event, city killer, orbital changes, nuclear option, planetary defense systems

Timestamps:

00:00 Asteroid 2024 YR4 Overview and Initial Concerns
03:03 Discovery and Initial Observations
05:30 Probability Changes and Data Limitations
07:25 Public Interest and Planetary Defense
10:35 Kinetic Impactor Defense and Future Missions

Here's to building a fantastic future - and continued progress in Space (and humanity)!  Spread Love, Spread Science

 Alex G. Orphanos

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Sources:

Chris Hadfield's thoughts on the Asteroid https://www.instagram.com/reel/DGI-_CNugG7/?igsh=emkwNTA5cnp2emc1

blogs.nasa.gov

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news210.html

https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4/

https://nypost.com/2025/02/17/science/see-images-of-the-city-killer-asteroid-with-a-1-in-48-chance-of-hitting-earth/

http://dashboard.fallingstar.com/dash/chl.html

https://arstechnica.com/space/2025/02/the-odds-of-a-city-killer-asteroid-impact-in-2032-keep-rising-should-we-be-worried/

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2466186-building-sized-asteroid-has-a-small-chance-of-hitting-earth-in-2032/

X Posts

1. @MarioNawfal (Post ID: 1) - January 29, 2025: Reports a 1-in-83 chance, aligning with early estimates.

   • URL: https://t.co/ftZVwBWb8e

2. @JustinFleenor (Post ID: 5) - February 18, 2025: Lists a 3.1% chance (1-in-32), with observation arc and scales.

   • URL: https://t.co/NP1WxR6FHF

3. @JustinFleenor (Post ID: 3) - February 19, 2025: Updates to 1.5% chance (1-in-67), reflecting the latest drop.

   • URL: https://t.co/BPQTtZYpM5

4. @astroEdLu (Post ID: 0) - February 7, 2025: Mentions a 2.3% chance with impact location modeling by B612 Foundation.

   • URL: https://t.co/DP21bMeIdT