This episode features a conversation with Jayson Coil, an Assistant Fire Chief and incident commander. Coil discusses the importance of understanding the “local rationality” or how seemingly irrational decisions made by people in complex situations often make sense within their own context. Jayson explains how the lack of personnel in critical support roles like logistics and planning, often due to competing demands from their primary employers, presents a significant challenge to wildfire management. Finally, Jayson highlights the importance of learning from past experiences, particularly by sharing tacit knowledge gained through experience and avoiding the tendency to simply attribute outcomes to luck or skill.

Jayson Coil

Jayson Coil is the Assistant Fire Chief and Paramedic for Sedona Fire District with over 25 years of experience. His career began as a Combat Engineer (Airborne) in the U.S. Army, and he has since held numerous roles in fire service, including Captain, Battalion Chief, and Interim Fire Chief. With 20+ years on a National Type 1 Incident Management Team, he has responded to 97 disasters across 17 states. He holds a Master’s in Leadership focused on Disaster Preparedness and is pursuing a Ph.D. in Performance Psychology. Coil is recognized for leadership development, decision-making, and his work in public health. He lives near Flagstaff, Arizona, and enjoys photography, hunting, and backpacking.

Links and downloads

• Left of Bang. In Left of Bang, authors Patrick Van Horne and Jason A. Riley explore the development of "combat profiling"—a proactive strategy to identify and mitigate potential threats based on the recognition of behavioral patterns. The skills outlined allow individuals not only to foresee dangers in military operations, but also in civilian environments.
  
  


• Cynefin Framework. The Cynefin Framework was developed to help leaders understand their challenges and to make decisions in context. By distinguishing different domains (the subsystems in which we operate), it recognises that our actions need to match the reality we find ourselves in through a process of sense-making.
  
  


• Interpersonal Skills - Discovery of Nexus
  
  


• Applied Critical Thinking.
  
  
  
  • Effective Direction. Bespoke consultancy focusing on developing the skills associated with Applied Critical Thinking
  
  
  • UK Ministry of Defence Red Teaming Handbook
  
  
  • US Army Handbook of Applied Critical Thinking
    
    
  
  
  
  


• Aircrews, Rules and the Bogeyman: Mapping the Benefits and Fears of Non-compliance - Leonie Boskeljon-Horst. Although rules support people while executing tasks, they are not the same as work-as-done. It can be impossible to follow the rules and finish the job at the same time. In this study, the objective is to better understand the stakes and interests that lie behind retaining gaps between work-as-prescribed and work-as-done, mapping the benefits and fears of noncompliance 

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