Episode 60: Writing on the Wall: The crude glut is here, with global exports booming, and structure crumbling
Update: 2025-10-02
Description
In this episode of the Sparta Market Outlook Podcast, host Rachel Williams, alongside analysts Jorge and Neil, dissects the latest oil market dynamics. The discussion delves into bearish US inventory builds, OPEC’s anticipated production hikes, and Venezuela’s export surge to a five-year high. Gasoline markets are spotlighted with strong EBOB cracks driven by Dangote refinery disruptions, while European naphtha faces pressure with a shift to contango. Crude spreads are softening globally, and distillate markets show mixed signals, with potential bullishness looming. The episode wraps with trade ideas, emphasising caution amid a volatile market landscape.
Key Takeaways:
- Physical crude pricing remains choppy but average direction seems downward whilst paper is beginning to crumble.
- US inventory picture remains bearish when you look under the bonnet.
- EBOB's perfect storm is set to calm.
- Record naphtha arb econs not just a Russia scare but a European malaise.
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