Episode 63: Sanctions rally! But the devil is in the detail
Description
Key Takeaways:
- Risk rally has most legs in Dubai as Indian refiners plan to react immediately with trade deals on the line.
- E/W spreads rally in favour of key short markets. Naphtha arbs East remain wide open.
- European diesel now faces multiple risks to imports, at least on paper.
- Gasoline supply risk is likely greater in the East, but prices rallied most in the West so far.
Chapters:
(00:47 ) Sanctions Shake-Up: Rosneft and Lukoil Fallout
Rachel and Neil react to overnight U.S. sanctions on Russian oil, exploring the immediate risk rally in oil assets and the potential for policy reversals.
(07:45 ) India's Crude Conundrum
The team discusses how Indian refiners, like Reliance, might navigate sanctions and shift to spot market purchases, potentially tightening global crude supply.
(12:25 ) JODI Data Dive: OECD Stock Insights
Neil highlights surprising stock builds in OECD regions, particularly in NGLs, and questions their relevance for crude price dynamics.
(15:42 ) European Refinery Rundown
Phil examines robust European refinery runs amidst capacity drops, with a focus on gasoline demand strength and Dangote’s shaky RFCC operations.
(20:32 ) Crude Arbitrage and Cushing Concerns
Neil breaks down shifting crude arbitrage opportunities, spotlighting TI’s high valuations and Cushing’s critically low stock levels.
(25:42 ) QuickFile Market Roundup
The team fire off their key takeaways on the market.
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