Neil, Phil, and James unpack a week where headline noise around a possible Ukraine peace deal clashes with still tight product markets and a supposedly long crude balance. They explore why prompt Brent spreads are so firm despite talk of a glut, dig into how gasoline and other light ends moved from extreme tightness toward something more normal, and then switch to diesel and jet to look at Q1 arbs, low stocks, and how headline risk is shaping trade calls. The team closes with a look at softer physical crude premiums, US crude exports and builds, and a quickfire tour of naphtha and fuel oil and what they might mean for refining margins into early next year.

📚 Chapters,

(00:46 ) Headlines and Ukraine peace talks

Neil and Phil walk through the confusion around Ukraine peace plans, what different outcomes could mean for sanctions, and how that might hit crude, products, freight, and paper spreads.

(06:32 ) Gasoline and light ends after peak tightness

Phil explains how ARA gasoline went from extreme tightness toward something more normal, what barge diffs, arbs, and Singapore strength are telling us, and why he is leaning more cautious on Jan–Feb spreads.

(14:57 ) Middle distillates, jet, and Q1 arbs

James recaps how diesel and jet traded into expiry, then looks ahead to Q1 with closed US and Asian arbs into Europe, low stocks, and why he still prefers a bullish stance on ICE gasoil and regrades.

(23:39 ) Crude balances and the missing glut

Neil reviews softer physical premiums in WAF, the AG, and the North Sea, reassesses his US crude build call, and asks whether we are finally starting to see more OECD barrels build rather than just sanctioned crude.

(28:36 ) Quickfire: naphtha and fuel oil

The pod wraps with a quickfire update on rich naphtha East West spreads, strong arbs to the East, and a weak fuel oil complex that is starting to drag on simple refining margins and could matter for crude and clean products.