DiscoverThe JRo ShowEstimating mid-cycle, normalized earnings with Alex Fitch and Michael Nicolas from Harris Associates (Oakmark Funds)
Estimating mid-cycle, normalized earnings with Alex Fitch and Michael Nicolas from Harris Associates (Oakmark Funds)

Estimating mid-cycle, normalized earnings with Alex Fitch and Michael Nicolas from Harris Associates (Oakmark Funds)

Update: 2024-02-191
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How Harris Oakmark thinks about and defines value investing


Mid-cycle earnings and why they are important (using the coin flip analogy)


CBRE example of mid-cycle earnings


Banks and SCHW example of mid-cycle earnings


Additional common adjustments they make to get to true normalized economic earnings power


Estimating normalized earnings for software and faster-growing tech companies (and Salesforce example)


Amazon and Alphabet examples


Even more adjustments for SBC, amortization, and non-recurring items


Lithia Motors example


First Citizens example


Quick discussion on modeling share repurchases and benchmarking capital allocation decisions on buying back stock at a discount


How Harris Associates determines the appropriate P/E ratio for different businesses


Masco example and choosing an appropriate peer comp group


Thoughts around P/E multiple expansion


American Express example for choosing a fair P/E multiple


Dealing with stocks with a wider range of outcomes


How they pick a required rate of return


Idea generation and research process at Harris Oakmark


What Harris looks for in hiring an analyst


Humility and willingness to accept constructive feedback


The primary responsibilities of the Director of Research at Harris Associates


Unique cultural attributes of working at Harris Associates


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Estimating mid-cycle, normalized earnings with Alex Fitch and Michael Nicolas from Harris Associates (Oakmark Funds)

Estimating mid-cycle, normalized earnings with Alex Fitch and Michael Nicolas from Harris Associates (Oakmark Funds)

John Rotonti