From Here To Election Day
Digest
This podcast episode delves into the upcoming US presidential election, examining key factors that could influence the final two months leading up to Election Day. The episode begins by discussing polling trends and sources of polling error, highlighting concerns about accurately measuring Latino voter sentiment and the potential for significant shifts in polling data after Labor Day. The episode then explores the potential impact of upcoming debates, particularly on Kamala Harris's favorability ratings, and the role of campaign advertising in shaping voter perceptions. Finally, the episode discusses the possibility of "October surprises," unexpected events that could significantly influence the election outcome, such as the release of damaging information about a candidate or a major political development.
Outlines
Election Dynamics: Polling, Debates, and October Surprises
This episode examines the upcoming US presidential election, focusing on polling trends, potential impacts of debates and advertising, and the possibility of unexpected events influencing the outcome.
Keywords
Polling Error
The discrepancy between poll results and actual election outcomes. Factors contributing to polling error include sampling bias, non-response bias, and the difficulty in accurately measuring support for third-party candidates.
October Surprise
An unexpected event or revelation that occurs during the final weeks of an election campaign, potentially influencing voter sentiment and the outcome. Examples include the release of damaging information about a candidate or a major political development.
Labor Day
A traditional marker in the US election calendar, often seen as the start of the "real" campaign season. Historically, voter attention and engagement increase after Labor Day, potentially leading to shifts in polling data.
Kamala Harris
The Democratic vice presidential nominee. Her favorability ratings have been subject to significant fluctuations, suggesting that public opinion about her is still forming and potentially volatile.
Swing State
A state where the outcome of a presidential election is uncertain and could potentially determine the winner. These states are often targeted by campaigns with increased advertising and voter outreach efforts.
Q&A
How much do polls typically change between Labor Day and Election Day?
Historically, the margin between candidates in state polling averages moves by about 7 percentage points. However, recent trends suggest that this volatility has decreased, with changes closer to 3.5% or even 2.5% in more recent elections.
What are some sources of polling error that are particularly concerning in this election?
Pollsters are concerned about accurately measuring Latino voter sentiment, which has been volatile this cycle. Additionally, states with a higher than average polling error, such as Wisconsin, are a source of anxiety.
How might the upcoming debates influence the election?
Debates can potentially shape the election by influencing voter perceptions of candidates. This is particularly relevant for Kamala Harris, who is participating in her first presidential debate and facing higher expectations than Biden.
What are some potential "October surprises" that could impact the election?
While it's impossible to predict, unexpected events like the release of damaging information about a candidate or a major political development could significantly influence the race.
Show Notes
Election Day is exactly two months away, meaning the final stretch of the presidential campaign is upon us. On Tuesday’s show, we assessed the current state of the race and how we got here. Today, we look ahead to the knowns and unknowns that could shake up the race in the coming weeks.
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Table of contents
United States
