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Harris Resets The Race For Latino Voters

Harris Resets The Race For Latino Voters

Update: 2024-08-15
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The podcast delves into the changing political landscape, particularly focusing on the evolving sentiment of Latino voters in the lead-up to the 2024 election. The hosts discuss the potential shift in support away from Democrats, particularly among younger voters, and the emergence of Kamala Harris as a potential presidential candidate. This shift, referred to as a "reset," has led to a significant increase in support for Harris compared to Joe Biden. The podcast explores the reasons behind this "reset," including voter dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's handling of issues like inflation and the border, a desire for change, and a perception that Harris represents a fresh start. The hosts also discuss the broader implications of this shift, including the possibility of a wider partisan realignment. The podcast concludes by examining the factors that influence voter behavior, including policy positions, social identity, and the overall "vibe" of a candidate.

Outlines

00:00:00
Latino Voters and the 2024 Election

The podcast explores the evolving political landscape, focusing on the shifting sentiment of Latino voters and the potential impact on the 2024 election. The hosts discuss the potential shift in support away from Democrats, particularly among younger voters, and the emergence of Kamala Harris as a potential presidential candidate.

00:01:33
The "Reset" in Latino Voter Sentiment

Carlos Odeo, co-founder of Ekis Research, joins the podcast to discuss his latest polling data on Latino voters. He reveals a significant "reset" in voter sentiment, with Kamala Harris gaining significant support compared to Joe Biden. The hosts delve deeper into the reasons behind this "reset," including voter dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's handling of issues like inflation and the border, a desire for change, and a perception that Harris represents a fresh start.

00:28:39
Factors Influencing Voter Behavior

The podcast concludes with a discussion about the factors that influence voter behavior. The hosts explore the role of policy positions, social identity, and the overall "vibe" of a candidate in shaping voter preferences.

Keywords

Latino Voters


The podcast focuses on the evolving political landscape, particularly focusing on the evolving sentiment of Latino voters in the lead-up to the 2024 election.

2024 Election


The podcast explores the potential impact of shifting Latino voter sentiment on the 2024 election.

Kamala Harris


The podcast discusses the emergence of Kamala Harris as a potential presidential candidate and the significant increase in support she has gained compared to Joe Biden.

"Reset"


The podcast explores the "reset" in voter preferences, highlighting the significant shift in support towards Kamala Harris.

Partisan Realignment


The podcast discusses the possibility of a wider partisan realignment driven by the changing political landscape and evolving voter sentiment.

Identity Politics


The podcast explores the role of identity politics in shaping voter preferences, particularly among Latino voters.

Policy Positions


The podcast examines the role of policy positions in influencing voter behavior, alongside social identity and the overall "vibe" of a candidate.

Q&A

  • What are the key trends in Latino voter sentiment heading into the 2024 election?

    Recent polls suggest a potential shift in Latino voter sentiment away from Democrats, particularly among younger voters. However, the emergence of Kamala Harris as a potential presidential candidate has led to a "reset" in voter preferences, with Harris gaining significant support compared to Joe Biden.

  • What factors are driving the "reset" in Latino voter sentiment?

    The "reset" is likely driven by a combination of factors, including voter dissatisfaction with the Biden administration's handling of issues like inflation and the border, a desire for change, and a perception that Kamala Harris represents a fresh start.

  • How do policy positions and "vibes" influence voter behavior?

    While policy positions play a role in shaping voter preferences, social identity and the overall "vibe" of a candidate are also significant factors. Voters often consider who they believe will best represent their interests and values, and this can be influenced by a candidate's personality, communication style, and perceived ability to connect with voters.

Show Notes

One of the most promising electoral trends for Republicans during the Trump era has been a shift among Latino voters toward Republicans. The eight percentage point swing from Clinton in 2016 to Trump in 2020 represented the largest shift of any racial or ethnic group in either direction.

And the erosion of support for Democrats didn’t stop there. In a poll of Latino voters in battleground states from the research group Equis in May, Biden was leading Trump among Latinos by only 5 percentage points. But Biden is no longer in the race, so do any of these trends still apply?

In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen Druke speaks with co-founder of Equis Research Carlos Odio about the new trends among Latino voters now that Harris is at the top of the ticket.

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Harris Resets The Race For Latino Voters

Harris Resets The Race For Latino Voters

ABC News, 538, FiveThirtyEight, Galen Druke